The french presidential election............and beyond

[BarnaBlue]

I can't see it, Barna. France has surrendered its sovereignty over fiscal and monetary policy. There is only scope to tinker at the margins without incurring the wrath of the bond markets.

Would it be worse to have a Sarkozy re-election or Hollande governing on the same agenda?

Sarko won't be re-elected.We'll have to wait and see what Hollande does in office but I suspect he could be a game changer for the EU(France is the second largest economy in Europe after all).May 6th is likely to be an historic day for the left in Europe with the Greek election results also being announced then.The left in Europe is on the march.
"Give me that old time religon." Rick Danko and Robbie Robertson(The Band).
"Well it's not what it used to be." Robbie Robertson.
Robbie was right.Unfortunately.

[BarnaBlue]

Barna, I'm sorry if you believe that Hollande is going to be a radical left-wing 'socialist' leader, those days have gone, (If they were ever there in the first place), in modern European economies

.

Let's see if he keeps his promises.Hollande's election could signal the start of a real revolt against the cuts in Europe. http://gu.com/p/374am
In any case I'd sooner have cuts made by a centre-left Govt in France (and that goes for Spain and the UK too)rather than by a blatantly right-wing one.

Being in Spain you missed Blair's socialist revolution in the UK and I fear that it may necessitate a move to Venezuela in order to follow your dream.

I'm proud to say I never voted for Blair(despite having the chance in '97) and since I speak(and understand) Spanish, I know what a ****wit Chavez is.

[yogi bear up the cagire]

“What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right.”
― Albert Einstein

[canveyshrimper]

Sarko won't be re-elected.We'll have to wait and see what Hollande does in office but I suspect he could be a game changer for the EU(France is the second largest economy in Europe after all).May 6th is likely to be an historic day for the left in Europe with the Greek election results also being announced then.The left in Europe is on the march.
"Give me that old time religon." Rick Danko and Robbie Robertson(The Band).
"Well it's not what it used to be." Robbie Robertson.
Robbie was right.Unfortunately.

Wasn't the left meant to be "on the march" in the mid 90's it didn't happen then here (despite the goodwill Blair had in 1997) or in Europe then, and it won't happen now.

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Interesting little article on turnout in French Presidential elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17812595
As someone who participated in election campaigns in England, it is strange how different it is here. It's very true that Public meetings of the candidates draw huge crowds, the equivalent of which, I suppose you would have to go back 70 years and more, to find in the UK.
Voting is virtually seen as a duty and responsibility of being a citizen of the Republic, almost a religious act......fitting that it is always done on a Sunday. A visit to the polling station is rather akin to a visit to the market, my wife don't just go to vote but also to stand around and have a chat to friends and neighbours after their duty has been done.
It is interesting to note that the high turnout is achieved without the machines of organised parties. I don't think there is any canvassing by party activists......I have never encountered any in Toulouse or Saint Gaudens. Perhaps it may happen in the very large cities but even then there is not the organised back up of telling and knocking-up with cars, in order to get the voters of the repective parties to the polling stations on election day. Another thing that is odd, for someone English, is the total lack of atmosphere in streets prior to the election. No one would dream of puting the poster of a candidate in their window, let alone a large poster board in their garden! For colour you have to look on derelict walls and bridges to find that the art of fly-posting is still alive, especially for the minority candidates.

[BarnaBlue]

“What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right.”
― Albert Einstein

Are you perhaps suggesting that the MerkelSarko alliance is somehow "right?"

[BarnaBlue]

Wasn't the left meant to be "on the march" in the mid 90's it didn't happen then here (despite the goodwill Blair had in 1997) or in Europe then, and it won't happen now.

Maybe not but where is the right's plan for economic growth in Europe?

[BarnaBlue]

Interesting little article on turnout in French Presidential elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17812595
As someone who participated in election campaigns in England, it is strange how different it is here. It's very true that Public meetings of the candidates draw huge crowds, the equivalent of which, I suppose you would have to go back 70 years and more, to find in the UK.
Voting is virtually seen as a duty and responsibility of being a citizen of the Republic, almost a religious act......fitting that it is always done on a Sunday. A visit to the polling station is rather akin to a visit to the market, my wife don't just go to vote but also to stand around and have a chat to friends and neighbours after their duty has been done.
It is interesting to note that the high turnout is achieved without the machines of organised parties. I don't think there is any canvassing by party activists......I have never encountered any in Toulouse or Saint Gaudens. Perhaps it may happen in the very large cities but even then there is not the organised back up of telling and knocking-up with cars, in order to get the voters of the repective parties to the polling stations on election day. Another thing that is odd, for someone English, is the total lack of atmosphere in streets prior to the election. No one would dream of puting the poster of a candidate in their window, let alone a large poster board in their garden! For colour you have to look on derelict walls and bridges to find that the art of fly-posting is still alive, especially for the minority candidates.

On turnout,I happen to think that the high(80% turnout)in the first round will work to Hollande's advantage on 6th May.I suspect that Hollande's supporters will come out in much greater numbers than Sarko's.
Intererestingly,yesterday I saw some projections of the FN vote in the second "tour" breaking down as 50% for Sarko,30% Hollande and 20% abstentions.
Also thought Nigel LaFarge made an interesting suggestion on Newsnight last night, to the effect that Marine La Pen would be unable to rid the FN of its racist image and should start up a new right wing party of her own.That would really shake up the right.

[yogi bear up the cagire]

On turnout,I happen to think that the high(80% turnout)in the first round will work to Hollande's advantage on 6th May.I suspect that Hollande's supporters will come out in much greater numbers than Sarko's.
Intererestingly,yesterday I saw some projections of the FN vote in the second "tour" breaking down as 50% for Sarko,30% Hollande and 20% abstentions.
Also thought Nigel LaFarge made an interesting suggestion on Newsnight last night, to the effect that Marine La Pen would be unable to rid the FN of its racist image and should start up a new right wing party of her own.That would really shake up the right.

Yes, on reflection, I suppose there is a limit to what MLP can do to direct her voters one way or another, although I think that she is due to make a statement during a May Day meeting (no doubt under a statue of Jeanne d'Arc). Perhaps, as you suggested, there could be a slightly larger abstention rate a week on Sunday. I did hear some talk of a change of name for the FN.........not sure if that would be popular with the rank and file. MLP as a loose cannon on the very right (if not extreme right) would certainly spice things up. However, it's all very well changing the name on the packet, if the ingredients inside remain the same...........................

[BarnaBlue]

Yes, on reflection, I suppose there is a limit to what MLP can do to direct her voters one way or another, although I think that she is due to make a statement during a May Day meeting (no doubt under a statue of Jeanne d'Arc).

Traditionally,the FN have never expressly told their supporters how to vote in the second round(except ten years ago of course).

[Neil_F]

Maybe not but where is the right's plan for economic growth in Europe?

There isn't one within the Eurozone. No one has a plan for growth.

There are currently only two economic policies: slow death monetary disintegration and swift monetary disintegration.

Until the Eurozone solves the competitiveness issue there will be a lengthy stagnation and the almost inevitable breakup of the monetary union. Solving the competitiveness issue means either Germany (and the northern bloc) leaving or agreeing to fiscal transfers that would require Europe wide politicial institutions (essentially a single government).

Nothing Hollande has proposed will do anything to change this.

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I thought that this article provided a simple and clear explanation of the FN phenomenon and where it is or is not going

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17824436

Interesting the comparison with the 2002 vote where, if you add on the Megret and Chasse Pêche Nature et Tradition votes to Le Pen's total, you come out not far from what MLP achieved last Sunday.

[yogi bear up the cagire]

There isn't one within the Eurozone. No one has a plan for growth.

There are currently only two economic policies: slow death monetary disintegration and swift monetary disintegration.

Until the Eurozone solves the competitiveness issue there will be a lengthy stagnation and the almost inevitable breakup of the monetary union. Solving the competitiveness issue means either Germany (and the northern bloc) leaving or agreeing to fiscal transfers that would require Europe wide politicial institutions (essentially a single government).

Nothing Hollande has proposed will do anything to change this.

As an economic 'nul' (D grade Economics A level!) could there be a solution by a two level Euro in what would effectively be a North/South divide. Not a pretty solution but by what you say, the alternatives are either unworkable or downright unpleasant........nigh, catastrophic.

[canveyshrimper]

As an economic 'nul' (D grade Economics A level!) could there be a solution by a two level Euro in what would effectively be a North/South divide. Not a pretty solution but by what you say, the alternatives are either unworkable or downright unpleasant........nigh, catastrophic.

I don't know, but wouldn't a two tier Euro rather defeat the object of the project? Although ultimately it could also defeat the idea of a United States of Europe.

[BarnaBlue]

I thought that this article provided a simple and clear explanation of the FN phenomenon and where it is or is not going

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17824436

Interesting the comparison with the 2002 vote where, if you add on the Megret and Chasse Pêche Nature et Tradition votes to Le Pen's total, you come out not far from what MLP achieved last Sunday.

As you say it's an interesting article.As far as the future is concerned,I don't think MLP is capable of raising the FN share of the vote to around 25%,which she would need to make the second round in 2017.So far (at least since 2002,the FN's share of the vote has remained stable at around 16/19%).If she were to quit the FN,found a new right-wing party and look for a realingment of the right with a UMP rump that might be a different story,however.