Question Play off's home or away 1st?

IloveShrimp · Apr 22, 2014

So would you prefer to play home or away for the 1st leg in the play off.

If we lose away 1st leg the oppo would park the bus at RH and I think we would struggle, if we win or draw away then I think we would go through.

I would go for away 1st.

dannypav · Apr 22, 2014

I think the way we are set up , we are a better 'away' team.
If we were at home first and drew , I would be confident

Jam_Man · Apr 22, 2014

Much rather the 2nd leg at home, better atmosphere.

Suffolk Blue · Apr 22, 2014

Away 1st preferably. If we get any sort of result in the away leg they'd have to be a little more open when they come to our's.

leeblue · Apr 22, 2014

Wheres the dont care option....home or away I see it all going our way...they will come to the hall and shut up shop taking a draw or just the one goal deficit then back to their place where they will be full of confidence have a good go at us and be wide open for an *** whooping.

tallboyblue · Apr 22, 2014

Especially York.

Somerset Ex-TTB · Apr 22, 2014

Chances are we will be at home anyway, as 6th or 7th place teams are.

Tommy2holes · Apr 22, 2014

Be great to go away first and get a decent win and set up for the home leg. Our really fancy our chances against anyone such is our defence.

WESTY_SUFC · Apr 22, 2014

Can we ask to play away in both legs?

OldBlueLady · Apr 23, 2014

We don't play the same way at home because of the way opposition teams are often set up. The only one of those play off contenders that would be likely to play the same kind of "park the bus" style if we played at home first, would be York. I'd love to reach Wembley at home again, so away leg first for me.

RHB · Apr 23, 2014

OldBlueLady said:
We don't play the same way at home because of the way opposition teams are often set up. The only one of those play off contenders that would be likely to play the same kind of "park the bus" style if we played at home first, would be York. I'd love to reach Wembley at home again, so away leg first for me.

Agreed, when we are playing away we seem to play with less tension. Interesting that a while ago I posted suggesting we are an 'away' side, and got a bit of a larraping for suggesting such a thing. What goes round, I guess.

Jam_Man · Apr 23, 2014

Ex-Trust Treasurer Bloke said:
Chances are we will be at home anyway, as 6th or 7th place teams are.

Definitely more likely to finish 6th or 7th, but if Burton were to lose against Chesterfield, which is possible and we get a draw then 5th place is still up for grabs on the last day.

Pubey · Apr 23, 2014

I extracted a load of playoff data to write a potential blog article, however I'm too busy at the moment.

Anyway, from the last 11 years (2003-13) across the 3 league divisions (results of 132 teams) there have (understandably!) been 33 playoff winners. 12 (36%) of winners finished in 1 playoff place, 6 (18%) in 2nd, 7 (21%) in 3rd, 8 (24%) in 4th.

You could look at this as saying finishing first in the playoffs has maybe increased your changes from 1:4 to over 1:3. Otherwise it looks like a straight-up lottery.

I've not got a big sample and haven't had time to do anything more fancy, but this suggests that first place might have an effect, and ~55% of winners in the top 2 compared to ~45% in the bottom 2 shows a mixture of the home second leg effect, and the fact that you got more points in the league campaign.

I've extracted the data for each of these teams and their prior 5 league results before the playoffs, with the aim of seeing if 'run in' performance has an effect, compared to just playoff position.

Ayrshire Blue · Apr 23, 2014

2nd leg at home

Angell Delight · Apr 23, 2014

Don't mind. Our overall record against teams in the top 7 suggests we should enter the play-offs with confidence regardless. And when you don't concede many goals you give yourselves a great chance.

Norwichshrimper · Apr 23, 2014

IloveShrimp said:
So would you prefer to play home or away for the 1st leg in the play off.

If we lose away 1st leg the oppo would park the bus at RH and I think we would struggle, if we win or draw away then I think we would go through.

I would go for away 1st.

Though on the flip side of what you are saying, if they we won the away leg, the opposition would not be able park the bus at RH and we can set up like we do away from home.

I really don't care, can't see it makes much difference....it'll probably be a cagey 0-0 in the first leg wherever we play, as is often the case with the play offs.

tommy tucker · Apr 23, 2014

Home or away first I know it is said if you get the away leg first you have an advantage .But the way I see it is we have to win over two legs no matter what .If we are good enough then we will do it but if its a bridge to far then we wont . I will just take it as it comes .

Rick Parsnip · Apr 23, 2014

Can't see anyone beating us over two legs.

Question Play off's home or away 1st?

Home or away 1st in the play off's?

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