Angell Delight
Life President
Such a shame football isn't played on paper....where we will finish is anyone's guess right now and certainly can't be predicted via computer but I'm confident we'll make the top 6.
I have written some very sophisticated computer software that predicts the final points tally for the League 1 teams.
Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.
Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.
For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.
These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.
This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.
So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.
So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.
Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.
This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.
Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:
1st
Sheffield United
92.41
2nd
Bolton
83.67
3rd
Fleetwood
79.47
4th
Scunthorpe
79.35
5th
Southend
75.94
6th
Bradford
75.80
7th
Millwall
74.82
8th
Rochdale
74.11
9th
Oxford
69.07
As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.
The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.
So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.
However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.
The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.
The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......
My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.
Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......
AFC Wimbledon | 1.57 | Walsall | 1.14 |
Bristol Rovers | 1.49 | Scunthorpe | 1.22 |
Charlton | 1.81 | Bury | 0.94 |
Chesterfield | 0.98 | Oxford | 1.74 |
Coventry | 1.52 | Swindon | 1.21 |
Fleetwood | 1.70 | Northampton | 1.02 |
Gillingham | 1.22 | Southend | 1.50 |
MK Dons | 1.96 | Shrewsbury | 0.78 |
Oldham | 1.05 | Millwall | 1.64 |
Peterborough | 1.33 | Rochdale | 1.39 |
Port Vale | 0.75 | Bradford | 2.00 |
Sheffield Utd | 1.99 | Bolton | 0.75 |
Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms,
I've been thinking about this and the Football League missed a trick, back in the day, when they had that pools panel.
Who remembers that, eh. A bunch of old fellas having a guess at the scores. I'm sure they showed it live on World of Sport at one time.
Anyway, we all used to groan when they decided that Liverpool v Burnley would be a score draw, ripping up our pools sheets in disgust, but wouldn't it have been so much fairer if they'd only used momentum oscillator algorithms.
I'd be a millionaire now and that Viv Nicholson wouldn't have "spent, spent, spent" all those winnings back in 1961, as there'd have been 17 draws that day, instead of 8!
I have written some very sophisticated computer software that predicts the final points tally for the League 1 teams.
Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.
Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.
For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.
These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.
This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.
So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.
So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.
Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.
This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.
Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:
1st Sheffield United 92.41 2nd Bolton 83.67 3rd Fleetwood 79.47 4th Scunthorpe 79.35 5th Southend 75.94 6th Bradford 75.80 7th Millwall 74.82 8th Rochdale 74.11 9th Oxford 69.07
As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.
The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.
So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.
However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.
The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.
The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......
My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.
Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......