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Such a shame football isn't played on paper....where we will finish is anyone's guess right now and certainly can't be predicted via computer but I'm confident we'll make the top 6.
 
I have written some very sophisticated computer software that predicts the final points tally for the League 1 teams.

Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.

Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.

For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.

These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.

This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.

So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.

So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.

Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.

This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.

Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:



1st
Sheffield United
92.41
2nd
Bolton
83.67
3rd
Fleetwood
79.47
4th
Scunthorpe
79.35
5th
Southend
75.94
6th
Bradford
75.80
7th
Millwall
74.82
8th
Rochdale
74.11
9th
Oxford
69.07

As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.

The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.

So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.

However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.

The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.

The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......

My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.

Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......

Nobody likes a smart arse :winking:
 
I gave my dog (Shrimper) two biscuits, one blue one and one green one. If he eat the blue one first that meant that Southend will get promotion this season.

To cut the odds in our favour I put my foot on the green one

He eat the blue one

Back of the net:footballer:
 
I trust you've tested the software against past results.

By the by, I assume every other team's calculations and the different permutations are included In which case, what are the percentage likelihoods of finishing in every possible position?
 
Exciting times Down Under. Can't believe how well we are playing from the snippets I've seen and all the stuff on the forum. Certainly can't make it this year but next year -championship maybe? I've even converted a couple of aussie workmates from following premiersh##e teams to follow the shrimpers. Who would have beleived it? Instead of the usual talk about Manure Westspam etc the talk is about what the mighty shrimpers have done. Keep it up.
COYB
 
Just out of interest, here are the expectations for Saturday's Matches.

Note that the expectations will change during the day, as and when, team news becomes available.

Note also that, Southend's expectation has dropped 0.02 of a point......



AFC Wimbledon1.57Walsall1.14
Bristol Rovers1.49Scunthorpe1.22
Charlton1.81Bury0.94
Chesterfield0.98Oxford1.74
Coventry1.52Swindon1.21
Fleetwood1.70Northampton1.02
Gillingham1.22Southend1.50
MK Dons1.96Shrewsbury0.78
Oldham1.05Millwall1.64
Peterborough1.33Rochdale1.39
Port Vale0.75Bradford2.00
Sheffield Utd1.99Bolton0.75
 
Interestingly* those stats for today suggest that the current in-form side, Shrewsbury Town, have little or no chance of winning, whilst out-of-form and constantly drawing, Bradford City, are favourites to win today, in the entire division, despite playing away.







*Yep, interestingly. What of it?!
 
I think we'll overtake both Scunthorpe and Bolton. It's Fleetwood that will keep us out of the automatics unless they finally start losing soon.
 
Right, I've printed those stats out for today's matches and will be following the results with a keen eye, throughout the afternoon.

Be interesting* to see how it pans out.





*Interesting. He said it again! :omg:
 
I've been thinking about this and the Football League missed a trick, back in the day, when they had that pools panel.

Who remembers that, eh? .. A bunch of old fellas having a guess at the scores. I'm sure they showed it live on World of Sport at one time.

Anyway, we all used to groan when they decided that Liverpool v Burnley would be a score draw, ripping up our pools sheets in disgust, but wouldn't it have been so much fairer if they'd only used momentum oscillator algorithms.

I'd be a millionaire now and that Viv Nicholson wouldn't have "spent, spent, spent" all those winnings back in 1961, as there'd have been 17 draws that day, instead of 8!
 
I've been thinking about this and the Football League missed a trick, back in the day, when they had that pools panel.

Who remembers that, eh. A bunch of old fellas having a guess at the scores. I'm sure they showed it live on World of Sport at one time.

Anyway, we all used to groan when they decided that Liverpool v Burnley would be a score draw, ripping up our pools sheets in disgust, but wouldn't it have been so much fairer if they'd only used momentum oscillator algorithms.

I'd be a millionaire now and that Viv Nicholson wouldn't have "spent, spent, spent" all those winnings back in 1961, as there'd have been 17 draws that day, instead of 8!

The pools panel had to pick some games out as shock draws, otherwise when the weather was bad enough to postpone most games, which happened a few times in the 60s and 70s, clever punters on the pools could just put down all the likely draws thinking the pools panel would pick the same games. And it would be to easy to win. In reality, there are shock result games every week, that's why it's so hard to get a win accumulator right in the bookies, or win on the pools. So the pools panel throwing a few silly result predictions in, was just what was happening in real life.
 
Good point 'seventies'.

I had a look at what young Viv won back in 1961.. £152,319 (equivalent to £3,167,827.29 adjusted for inflation) :omg:
 
I have written some very sophisticated computer software that predicts the final points tally for the League 1 teams.

Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.

Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.

For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.

These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.

This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.

So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.

So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.

Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.

This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.

Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:



1stSheffield United92.41
2ndBolton83.67
3rdFleetwood79.47
4thScunthorpe79.35
5thSouthend75.94
6thBradford75.80
7thMillwall74.82
8thRochdale74.11
9thOxford69.07

As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.

The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.

So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.

However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.

The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.

The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......

My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.

Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......

If you're that confident in your sophisticated program can you pay for my flight back home for the play off final. I will buy you a nice Wembley seat in return :happy:
 
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