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IF we make the play-offs...

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Another Surrey Shrimper said:
If we make the playoffs it's a clean slate and we will be on a high from achieving that last spot. Apart from the fitness of those returning from injury I see no reason why we can't complete with anyone.
Click to expand...

Except you're not taking this into account. This is from Sky Sports and shows the percentage of teams that gain promotion from each play off position:

PositionChampionshipLeague OneLeague TwoTotalPercentage
3rd (4th in L2)109133239.50%
4th (5th in L2)5751721%
5th (6th in L2)7541619.80%
6th (7th in L2)5651619.80%

So, yes, it's a clean slate, but one where our chances are actually quite slim.
 
londonblue said:
Except you're not taking this into account. This is from Sky Sports and shows the percentage of teams that gain promotion from each play off position:

PositionChampionshipLeague OneLeague TwoTotalPercentage
3rd (4th in L2)109133239.50%
4th (5th in L2)5751721%
5th (6th in L2)7541619.80%
6th (7th in L2)5651619.80%

So, yes, it's a clean slate, but one where our chances are actually quite slim.
Click to expand...
22% chance according to those stats, so pretty much 1 in 4.
 
BILLERICAY BLUE said:
22% chance according to those stats, so pretty much 1 in 4.
Click to expand...

Where did you get 22% from? Either way, I wouldn't make that 1 in 4, i'd make that nearer 1 in 5.

But, I'd still rather finish 6th than 7th. After all, 7th is 0%.

(Of course, as you'd expect from Sky, those percentages don't add up. They've obviously been rounded. Badly.)
 
22.2% in League One, is where 'Billericay' is working from, I think.

Those stats, in the final column, are for all three divisions.
 
londonblue said:
Where did you get 22% from? Either way, I wouldn't make that 1 in 4, i'd make that nearer 1 in 5.

But, I'd still rather finish 6th than 7th. After all, 7th is 0%.

(Of course, as you'd expect from Sky, those percentages don't add up. They've obviously been rounded. Badly.)
Click to expand...

6 out of 27 teams in league one have been promoted after finishing in 6th place, which is 22.22%. I would rather we were an 'in form' team but maybe we've had our bad run and will start winning again, starting on Sunday (and hoping Millwall don't win). Yours sincerely, Mr Optimistic.
 
londonblue said:
Where did you get 22% from? Either way, I wouldn't make that 1 in 4, i'd make that nearer 1 in 5.

But, I'd still rather finish 6th than 7th. After all, 7th is 0%.

(Of course, as you'd expect from Sky, those percentages don't add up. They've obviously been rounded. Badly.)
Click to expand...
He would have got 22% from the League One stats. 6 teams promoted in 6th place in 27 seasons. However Sky have cocked it up as there have been 28 seasons of play-offs where only the sides below the automatically promoted ones have played off (1988/89 up to 2015/16 inclusive). The play-offs preceding 1988/89 involved the side just above those automatically relegated.
As usual, much hype and minimal accuracy from Sky.
 
We will have to play three hard games in 8 days. We will be at home on Thursday 4th May and have a very difficult second leg up north at a ridiculous time on a Sunday evening. We would thus need ideally a 2 goal lead to take up north as the last time we did this we got thumped 5-1 in the second leg.

Somehow the ticket office will have to sell and distribute about 8,000 tickets between Monday and Thursday (will online and print at home be available?) and then if we get through there is a 13 day gap until the final. All down to SKY!


Wordsworth and Coker need to be fit and playing and Ranger and Ferdinand need to have some fitness and energy. I think their core fitness form pre season and playing so many games for them has caught up on them and probably Wordsworth too. We will need a lot of luck.
 
Last edited:
I assume one of the games on Sunday is being televised.

I imagine they'll go for Bolton as usual, but our game and Fleetwood's game must have a chance.
 
There's an EFL Live Game slotted in on Sunday, but they haven't announced which one.

My gut feeling, like yourself, is they might have Bolton on, possibly with Fleetwood on red button.
 
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