Brexit negotiations thread

[Yorkshire Blue]

As Yogi points out the referendum was advisory, and that advice was given to our ministers to follow.

What has followed since the referendum took place has been chaos and a complete stasis within the Tory party on what leaving the EU means and how to negotiate and carry that out.

The ERG are certainly holding the governments feet to the fire, forcing the amendments to the customs bill in the hope that it will be unpalatable to the EU....and therefore not accepted by them.

Today I think further amendments will come forward from the remain side in a tit for tat exchange and if May loses the vote, will force the UK into a customs union.

There are economic arguments both for and against being in a customs union....from a constitutional and political point of view the impact of staying in a union are more profound.

yep huge constitutional and political implications for forcing the UK out of a customs union when the numbers show there's no support for this:

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...-should-remain-a-member-of-the-customs-union/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...r-of-the-european-customs-union-after-brexit/

Of course the real issue is that Leave have no democratic legitimacy having failed to put a coherent plan forward for the people to decide on (obviously they have no democratic legitimacy having been proven to have broken electoral laws as well).

Theresa May then attempted to get some democratic legitimacy for her ham-fisted attempts to force this through but having made the massive mistake of starting the clock running on Article 50 to shore up her position in the party (and I'm not saying this with the benefit of hindsight as I pointed this out at the time) only for the public to reject her and her government and lose her majority despite being up against a complete joker in Corbyn.

As such we are stuck sleepwalking towards the cliff, without a coherent plan with a negligent PM more concerned about shoring up her own position than in extracting us from the mess we are in.

This is a fiasco of the highest order and utterly predictable.

There urgently needs to be an extension of Article 50 and new elections are required to give a democratic mandate to whatever plan this joke of a government (or more likely the plan of any successor government) can agree on.

Instead we get a government trying to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny by shutting down Parliament early. Pathetic.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

I'm getting ever more worried that we'll crash out without a deal which seems like it would be a very bad thing.
To be fair, the spin operation against the May deal has been excellent. The spin in favour didn't seem to exist at all. Probably should have done

 

[mattitouk]

Government narrowly wins the trade vote amendment 307-301.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44864496

 

[callan]

yep huge constitutional and political implications for forcing the UK out of a customs union when the numbers show there's no support for this:

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...-should-remain-a-member-of-the-customs-union/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...r-of-the-european-customs-union-after-brexit/

Of course the real issue is that Leave have no democratic legitimacy having failed to put a coherent plan forward for the people to decide on (obviously they have no democratic legitimacy having been proven to have broken electoral laws as well).

Theresa May then attempted to get some democratic legitimacy for her ham-fisted attempts to force this through but having made the massive mistake of starting the clock running on Article 50 to shore up her position in the party (and I'm not saying this with the benefit of hindsight as I pointed this out at the time) only for the public to reject her and her government and lose her majority despite being up against a complete joker in Corbyn.

As such we are stuck sleepwalking towards the cliff, without a coherent plan with a negligent PM more concerned about shoring up her own position than in extracting us from the mess we are in.

This is a fiasco of the highest order and utterly predictable.

There urgently needs to be an extension of Article 50 and new elections are required to give a democratic mandate to whatever plan this joke of a government (or more likely the plan of any successor government) can agree on.

Instead we get a government trying to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny by shutting down Parliament early. Pathetic.

With all due respect there is no mandate to stay in a customs union either, as the vote in Hoc tonight has shown, it is as an illegitimate comment to state otherwise.

If we were to stay in such a union as you well know this would tie our hands econonomically in terms of fresh trade deals in addition to forcing our hand on legislation that would be overseen by the ECJ.

As far as democratic legitimacy is concerned it is not unsurprising that many on here simply do not accept the 2016 result, that they should be the ones to cry foul.

By however slender a majority we are edging towards WTO terms, in March next year partly due this government's incompetence and various attempts by factions of remain to thwart the 2016 decision.

We can of course comfort ourselves knowing that the remain party didn't even bother to turn up and vote yesterday....it is not just the conservative party that are a fiasco...it is British politics in general.

Oh and cricko reckons you look like Jacob Rees mogg ?

 

[Lord Football]

With all due respect there is no mandate to stay in a customs union either, as the vote in Hoc tonight has shown, it is as an illegitimate comment to state otherwise.

If we were to stay in such a union as you well know this would tie our hands econonomically in terms of fresh trade deals in addition to forcing our hand on legislation that would be overseen by the ECJ.

As far as democratic legitimacy is concerned it is not unsurprising that many on here simply do not accept the 2016 result, that they should be the ones to cry foul.

By however slender a majority we are edging towards WTO terms, in March next year partly due this government's incompetence and various attempts by factions of remain to thwart the 2016 decision.

We can of course comfort ourselves knowing that the remain party didn't even bother to turn up and vote yesterday....it is not just the conservative party that are a fiasco...it is British politics in general.

Oh and cricko reckons you look like Jacob Rees mogg ?

And this is the key. The really scary thing. WTO terms is basically the "no deal" scenario, the one the Government has now begrudgingly said it is planning for.

The facts still remain that there is no solution to Northern Ireland that doesn't involve a border, to the Roro problems in Dover and the IT is questionable. However, the same problems apply to Ireland, France and somehow the Dutch need to workout how the Regular Shipping Service will function (or not).

My money is on that for necessity, a transitional arrangement will be in place. In the short term that is good. But, it simply kicks the "how exactly are we going to leave" issue further down the line.

I'll also note, that the EU / Japan Trade Deal was signed today. That's a massive thing, and there is no guarantee we will enjoy the benefits of it.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

And this is the key. The really scary thing. WTO terms is basically the "no deal" scenario, the one the Government has now begrudgingly said it is planning for.

The facts still remain that there is no solution to Northern Ireland that doesn't involve a border, to the Roro problems in Dover and the IT is questionable. However, the same problems apply to Ireland, France and somehow the Dutch need to workout how the Regular Shipping Service will function (or not).

My money is on that for necessity, a transitional arrangement will be in place. In the short term that is good. But, it simply kicks the "how exactly are we going to leave" issue further down the line.

I'll also note, that the EU / Japan Trade Deal was signed today. That's a massive thing, and there is no guarantee we will enjoy the benefits of it.

Perhaps 'kicking the can down the road' is the best we can hope for. The things we have learnt from the last two days are that May sees her remain rebels as a bite from a mosquito or wasp...........something irritating but not threatening. By contrast the Brexit rebels, she perceives, possess a bite that could prove fatal. What this does, of course, is push us to a position which will be totally unacceptable to the EU. As Soubry said this morning, the country is being effectively run by Mogg's ERG group. If we are not careful we could end up, by default, with the no deal this group desires.

 

[callan]

And this is the key. The really scary thing. WTO terms is basically the "no deal" scenario, the one the Government has now begrudgingly said it is planning for.

The facts still remain that there is no solution to Northern Ireland that doesn't involve a border, to the Roro problems in Dover and the IT is questionable. However, the same problems apply to Ireland, France and somehow the Dutch need to workout how the Regular Shipping Service will function (or not).

My money is on that for necessity, a transitional arrangement will be in place. In the short term that is good. But, it simply kicks the "how exactly are we going to leave" issue further down the line.

I'll also note, that the EU / Japan Trade Deal was signed today. That's a massive thing, and there is no guarantee we will enjoy the benefits of it.

Indeed although some may observe, the deal did not require Contributions to the EU budget, did not insist on Freedom of movement, or join a customs union.

 

[Lord Football]

s

Indeed although some may observe, the deal did not require Contributions to the EU budget, did not insist on Freedom of movement, or join a customs union.

....and others may observe that it took six years to formally negotiate (which doesn't include the "talking about talks" stage).

 

[MK Shrimper]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1019080862741204993

 

[Benfleet A1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1019080862741204993

Blue passports and fish.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Blue passports and fish.

You'll have to wait a while for a "blue passport." The last one I renewed (back in May) was an old style Burgundy one.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44913982

"We can get Brexit deal done by October": Dominic Raab is obviously an optimist.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44918262

You know you're in trouble when the PM and some of her cabinet minisiters are trying to sell the Checkers deal to other European countries on a f2f basis.It only takes one of the 27 to say no and we're ****ed.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Does anybody think we'll crash out with a no-deal? Did any Brexiteers really want to harm the economy so badly that they'd put millions out of work?

 

[rigsby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44918262

You know you're in trouble when the PM and some of her cabinet minisiters are trying to sell the Checkers deal to other European countries on a f2f basis.It only takes one of the 27 to say no and we're ****ed.

Who, Spain?

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Does anybody think we'll crash out with a no-deal? Did any Brexiteers really want to harm the economy so badly that they'd put millions out of work?

Nothing to worry about. Didn't you hear Mogg on Sunday? We only have to wait 50 years to see whether Brexit will work, or not.................I can't wait to see! ;)

 

[Lord Football]

Nothing to worry about. Didn't you hear Mogg on Sunday? We only have to wait 50 years to see whether Brexit will work, or not.................I can't wait to see! ;)

...and the suggestion for the need to stockpile food, closure of a Kent motorway, sharp dip in house prices and if we are lucky a recession as opposed to a depression.

 

[MK Shrimper]

...and the suggestion for the need to stockpile food, closure of a Kent motorway, sharp dip in house prices and if we are lucky a recession as opposed to a depression.

Chuck in a bit of civil unrest and it'll have all been worth it.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

"Excellent discussion with German Foreign Minister @HeikoMaas about the unintended geopolitical consequences of No Deal. Only person rejoicing would be Putin... "

YES! Mr Hunt, exactly the same person who was rejoicing (along with Farage and Trump) when the Brexit vote was announced. I just can't believe the crap I'm hearing from the UK side at the moment. The only excuse I can see is that they now realise what a desperate situation they've put themselves in and are trying to bluff their way out. First of all it's Raab threatening the EU with not paying the divorce bill if we don't get a deal (see the excellent cartoon in the Independent.......Saturday?) I just don't think this kind of blackmail is going to work with the EU. Then Hunt claiming that the British public would blame the EU for no deal!.......For f***'s sake, who do these people think they are and do they believe the British people will be so stupid and gullible? There is only one side to blame for this mess and it's those who invoked article 50, set the clock ticking, without the faintest idea of a strategy for leaving. Spare me those people who will come on to say it will hurt the EU more............IT WILL HURT both sides. Brexit is a lose, lose scenario, it always has been. There again you can adopt Mogg's view, to hang around for 50 years to see if it works!!!..............what a joker........it would be even funnier if it wasn't for the fact that it's these people calling the tune at the moment.
For God's sake, the UK is leaving the EU.......................OK, that's annoying but fair enough. You just don't expect, when you leave a club, for them to change its rules, allow you to keep the better things of membership just to facilitate our departure. There is a structure of rules on which membership of the club is based, these can't be ridden roughshot over, even if it would theoretically benefit both sides.
We are now in the farcical situation of May proposing the White paper as a 'basis for negotiation' which she has stated, she can't negotiate on. She can't even achieve bloody consensus for this attempt at 'softness' in her own party. I have the feeling that the EU haven't destroyed her proposals in the way they could have done, just out of fear that the whole negotiating process will break down, which is obviously what no one wants. Yet, I'm loathed to say, without a radical change on the UK side, it's exactly where we are heading. An angry and exasperated poster..........what a f*****g mess!

 

[Ricky Otto]

I've read this thread for a long time and choose not to get involved with discussion because I'm angry and I know I'll get aggressive and probably get myself a ban.

I always agreed that the vote should be upheld and that us remainers should suck it up but this is nothing like what most leave voters thought they were voting for.