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All is not lost

fbm

Blue tinted optimist⭐
Joined
Oct 28, 2003
Messages
10,025
Location
Cloud cuckoo land
So, like most of us I guess, I have been pretty darn depressed since the ******* referee cost us a win v Walsall and thought that it was pretty much done and dusted now.

But this morning I have had a look at the remaining fixtures for all the other teams and this is far from done. Having not won since January (but having come so close!) surely a win is going to happen sooner or later. Could that **** of a ref's decisions actually kick us into survival mode and produce the siege mentality that we need? Unlike the Blackpool result which was a hammer blow, this was an absolute injustice. And sometimes it needs that "We've got to play 12 men" attitude that actually can force a team to really adopt that siege mentality and fighting spirit so evident last Friday and so absent in many other matches.

So let's have a look at all the remaining fixtures, together with my predictions - I'll ignore goal difference as that is worth a point to us (which, as you see, could be crucial).

Southend - We are know our games. I think a win, loss and draw, I have no idea really in what order but if pushed I fancy us to beat Rochdale, draw v Burton and come up short v Sunderland.

Total - 48 points with a superior goal difference. Is that enough? No way, I hear many of you say, but look at the other sides and their opponents.


Bradford - already down and I think the only team we have done the double over this season. But they still have a huge part to play - home to Wimbledon and Gillingham and away to Scunthorpe. I think their games are the most crucial and am praying that to play with no pressure will enable them to take a point against Wimbledon and Scunthorpe. If they wanted to be really benevolent they could win at least one of them to really help. Go Bradford! Let's give Gillingham the points in their other game which will leave Bradford bottom with 38 points.

Walsall - A really poor side and I can't see the getting very much at all. They are home to Peterborough who need the wins for the play offs and away to Shrewsbury and Wycombe (who are another club with a real part to play!). I'm not giving them anything - 43 points.

Rochdale - Here we go... their last home game is against us and I think we will nick the points there. They have away games at Charlton and Bristol Rovers and again, I can't see them getting another point, finishing with 48 points.

Scunthorpe - Charlton and Plymouth away, Bradford at home. I think a defeat at Charlton and 2 draws. That will leave them with 48 points.


So if these results pan out, we finish 5th bottom with 48 points and a superior goal difference. Now some of you might be thinking that these are all orchestrated pie in the sky results, but actually, it can work out very much in our favour in other ways.

Look at the other fixtures -

Wimbledon - Home to Wycombe, away at Doncaster and Luton. I can't see them getting anything from their away games and I have them beating Wycombe. But if Wycombe win, that leaves Wimbledon with 46 points and below us.

Plymouth - Not out of it and have games at home to Barnsley and Scunthorpe, and away to Accrington. I have them losing v Barnsley and drawing the other 2 to leave them on 49 points. But if they beat Scunny. then Scunny drop further and if they lose all 3, Scunny are clear but Plymouth finish on 48 points with an inferior goal difference to us.

Accrington - home to Plymouth and away at Doncaster and Portsmouth. I can't see them getting any points v Pompey and Donny, and the one point I think they will get v Plymouth gives them 49. But again, take that point away and they are on 48, same as us with an inferior goal difference.

Wycombe - Home to Fleetwood and Walsall and away to Wimbledon. 2 crucial games here. I have a win v Walsall, a loss to the Wombles and a draw v Fleetwood to give them 51 points. Personally I want them to win everything to get well clear and if they did, it would dump Wimbledon down. But if the worst happens and they lose all three, they will only have 47 points.

So it doesn't really matter which teams do what, other than we must get at least 4 points. I think if the unthinkable happens and we get 2 wins, we will be clear whatever as because the teams are playing each other, they can't all get the points. In fact, if the results really all went in our favour, it would be possible to stay up with just 47 points meaning only one win was necessary... as long as it was against Rochdale.

If you fancy having a go yourself, I found it here on the Ipswich website -

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-calculator/?step=2&lge=3


And we all know what will happen... we'll lose the next 2, get relegated and then beat Sunderland. Put money on it.

But all is not lost Shrimpers.

COME ON YOU BLUES, for ****s sake.

EDITED - amended Accrington entry
 
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Yes, I looked at these yesterday, not quite to the degree you have, but I am hopeful, as long as they are galvanised tomorrow.
 
It’s a weird time of year where strange results happen.

There’s a decent chance that mid-table Burton view a trip to the seaside as a holiday. Relegation threatened Rochdale will feel the pressure at home and Sunderland may have nothing to play for and be resting before the play-offs.

The first goal will be crucial in those first two matches as I’m not sure either team will have much fight/confidence in them when faced with adversity. But if we do take the lead we need to double down. We now have a mental block defending leads. Our next win will either be a last minute winner when we don’t have time to think about defending it or a 3+ goal win.
 
To have any chance of staying up we have to beat Burton and Rochdale, because I can't see us getting anything from Sunderland. Even if we do we these games, 50 points still might not be enough.
 
The only way 50 points wouldn't be enough is if every lower team wins every game against a higher side and draws against a lower side. Otherwise, as I showed in my opening post, 48 will probably be enough for us due to the goal difference.
 
fbm, Accrington already lost to Luton last night. Also, can you really see the Scunthorpe v Bradford ending in a draw? Scunthorpe will be going hell for leather at home, and the utterly useless Bradford will be half in their holidays, and expected to give fringe and youth players a game. Also, Bristol Rovers will be mathematically safe by the time they play Rochdale, so don't bank on a Bristol Rovers win if Rochdale need points.
Lots of if's and maybe's and probably a twist down the bottom. Just hope the twist is us getting out of it.
 
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fbm, Accrington already lost to Luton last night. Also, can you really see the Scunthorpe v Bradford ending in a draw? Scunthorpe will be going hell for leather at home, and the utterly useless Bradford will be half in their holidays, and expected to give fringe and youth players a game. Also, Bristol Rovers will be mathematically safe by the time they play Rochdale, so don't bank on a Bristol Rovers win if Rochdale need points.
Lots of if's and maybe's and probably a twist down the bottom. Just hope the twist is us getting out of it.

Ah, missed the Luton result last night. Post amended.
 
I know it will be harder to attract players at that level


Not at all, good enough players maybe but what we need is a manager who can get them playing as a team and quickly gelling as a unit. Whether 007 is that man remains to be seen.
Tilly managed it so who knows!
 
A clear out and huge cut in budget

Huge clear out yes.

Massive budget cut. Not so sure tbh.

I think the budget will drop because of the players going out. I can't see crowds dropping that much, particularly if we are having a good season. Maybe a 6-7k average.

Obviously we will lose some tv money etc but not massive amounts.
 
As for the points total.

Such is the narrow margins in the relegation zone that potentially 48 or 49 points could see a team stay up. 50 I think would mean safety. A big win tomorrow and i think a big contingent would head north to Rochdale
 
2 wins and we’ll stay up. At a push we might stay up with 1 win and 2 draws, anything less and we’re down IMO.
 
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