Are we a shoe in for the play-offs already?

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Sitting on 38 points with 29 games to go and 9 points clear of 8th place, I had a thought about how many points we would need to get in those 29 games to at least make the play offs.

Without doing any research at all, I thought that 72 points would be enough? (Maybe someone with a bit more effort could confirm or reject this?)

Anyway assuming that 72 points is a reasonable target we need 34 points from 29 games. :omg::omg:

That's only 1.17 points per game or the same as 61 in a season which is lower mid table form.

Even if our form was to tail off big time, surely we would be able to pick up 34 points?

If we can pick up 4 points from our next 2 games (Daggers (A) Brizzle (H)) then the calculation comes down to 30 points from 27, which is almost relegation form.

I know this run can't go on forever, but if we can keep it going for another 3 or 4 games we can probably even start to look at automatic promotion based on mid-table form for the rest of the season.

Woohoo :smile:

 

[WESTY_SUFC]

Nothing should be taken for granted. Its way too early in the season about talking about playoffs or promotion. Although very unlikely its possible to get 0 points in 10+ games. Im just enjoying taking each game as it comes

 

[Smiffy]

No. Not by a long chalk. With 29 games to go, anything can happen. The test will be how we respond to the inevitable defeat, which is just around the corner. Will we respond immediately, or will we go on a winless streak? Nobody knows. But any talk of play-offs or promotion at this stage, is very premature indeed. You cant discount what may happen in the transfer window either. Who's to say some of our better players wont leave? Theres many factors that could upset our season. Yes we are doing well at the moment. But it could still go the shape of a pear. My feet remain firmly rooted and I hope thats the case with the players as well. Lets just concentrate on backing the lads, particularly when we are up against it. Yesterday showed we are far from the finished article...

 

[Crawliano]

Premature? We're a handful of games of being halfway home!

Dag & Red v Southend, 15:00 W
Southend v Bristol Rovers, 15:00 W
Cheltenham v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Bradford, 19:45 W
Aldershot v Southend, 15:00 L
AFC Wimbledon v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Dag & Red, 15:00 W
Southend v Port Vale, 15:00 D
Northampton v Southend, 15:00 L
Shrewsbury v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Swindon, 15:00 D
Plymouth v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Rotherham, 19:45 W
Gillingham v Southend, 19:45 L
Southend v Crewe, 15:00 W
Morecambe v Southend, 15:00 L
Burton Albion v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Crawley Town, 19:45 L
Southend v Accrington Stanley, 15:00 W
Hereford v Southend, 15:00 D
Southend v Aldershot, 19:45 W
Bristol Rovers v Southend, 15:00 D
Southend v Cheltenham, 19:45 W
Bradford v Southend, 15:00 D
Southend v AFC Wimbledon, 15:00 W
Torquay v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Barnet, 19:45 W
Oxford Utd v Southend, 15:00 L
Southend v Macclesfield, 15:00 W

I've been a bit harsh on results, but looking at this, we could get 41 points out of the remainder. That's 79 points. Who knows what's round the corner? But maybe, if we respond well to a loss, be a bit canny in the transfer window, we'll be ok!

That said though, 79 points should be good for the play offs!

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Crawliano has hit the nail on the head of what I was trying to say. He has got us on a run there of just 4 wins in 16 games and we are still hitting 79 points.

Yes its very early days, but we have had such an amazing start that it would take serious wheels falling off for us not to make the play-off's at the very least.

 

[Cricko]

I think it is far to easy to judge, sure we are on great run, without actually being very good and we have had extreme amounts of luck so far.The time will tell after the Winter of playing on wet/in mud/semi frozen pitches in terrible weather....If we come out in say the end of Feb still in the top 4 we have a very good chance this year.

 

[Dick Bate's Protege]

We'll win this league by 10 points, doesn't matter how well people are playing against us, we've discovered the knack of winning ugly and scoring at the right times. It's in the bag!!!

 

[blue79]

I agree with sentiments. Funny how I said not to take things for granted the other week and I was accused of being a pessimist. Just for the record I believe we'll go up via top 3.

 

[canveyshrimper]

We're not safe from relegation, yet alone a shoo in for the play offs.

 

[pickledseal]

We're not safe from relegation, yet alone a shoo in for the play offs.

I always find that's the biggest relief... Getting enough points to ensure whatever happens we won't get relegated!

 

[Tommy2holes]

We're not safe from relegation, yet alone a shoo in for the play offs.

Yes we are There is not way that plymouth daggers barnet will make up nearly 30 points on us.

 

[OldBlueLady]

Yes we are There is not way that plymouth daggers barnet will make up nearly 30 points on us.

Mathematically not though, I'm with Harry on this. Let's get safe first then go for what's required for promotion.

 

[canveyshrimper]

Yes we are There is not way that plymouth daggers barnet will make up nearly 30 points on us.

Our financial problems of the past few years are well documented, and administration wouldn't have been a surprise then, but....

I'll stick by Tilly's maxim get to 50 points and reassess from there.

 

[SUFCStu]

17 games in and normally the league takes shape at this point.

So I think at the moment it does seem quite possible but anything can happen... the team is a due a bad run soon... :winking:

 

[united we stand]

The play offs is the minimum. Ok maybe I am getting carried away but at the moment I want automatic. People sometimes quote play offs as though its the same as promotion. As many others before have said we need to get out of this division for a varetiy of reasons that we are all very aware off

 

[ldnfatso]

The Title is in the bag i reckon. Fat Evans and his Crawley scummers have given up in the last 2 games! They can't handle the pace.

 

[ol blue eyes]

The Boss has the squad working well together with confidence in each other. However whilst most of us would at the start of the season, have taken finishing 4th, that could condemned us to to another season in the basement.

We need to keep our heads, and our feet (not literately) on the ground . What happens in the January window could have a massive bearing on the remainder of the season.

Lets keep the support going all around the ground as on Saturday, and trust the boss continues to keep the team playing with confidence even after picking the inevitable defeat.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Just for the record I believe we'll go up via top 3.

With who as manager ??

 

[Austin the Shrimper]

The Boss has the squad working well together with confidence in each other. However whilst most of us would at the start of the season, have taken finishing 3rd, that could condemned us to to another season in the basement.

Top 3 go up automatically, 4567 go into playoffs. I think we are going to win the league, and let's not even talk about a bad run, unless it actually happens. UTB

 

[ol blue eyes]

The Boss has the squad working well together with confidence in each other. However whilst most of us would at the start of the season, have taken finishing 3rd, that could condemned us to to another season in the basement.


Top 3 go up automatically, 4567 go into playoffs. I think we are going to win the league, and let's not even talk about a bad run, unless it actually happens. UTB

Quite right Austin, I did of course mean 4th:blush: I will amend thanks.

I was not suggesting a bad run, just bouncing back when we do have a defeat.:thumbsup: