Brexit negotiations thread

[Yorkshire Blue]

is it all too late, is the damage already done......

Here's a roundup of the financial exodus so far:

* US bank giants Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup have
moved 250 billion euros ($283 billion) of balance-sheet assets to
Frankfurt because of Brexit.
* Bank of America is spending $400 million to move staff and operations in
anticipation of Brexit, and is trying to persuade London staff to move to
Paris.
* Barclays is seeking to transfer €250 billion ($280.8 billion) of business
to Dublin and is set to become Ireland's biggest bank.
* France's BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale have opted to
transfer 500 staff out of London to Paris.
* UBS has chosen German financial center Frankfurt for its new EU
headquarters.
* Swiss peer Credit Suisse is moving 250 jobs to Germany, Madrid, and
Luxembourg among other EU 27 countries as well as $200 million from its
market division to Germany.
* Germany's Deutsche Bank is also considering shifting large volumes of
assets to Frankfurt as part of its Brexit plan.
* HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has shifted ownership of many of its European
subsidiaries from its London-based entity to its French unit.
* Australia's largest bank by assets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has
set in motion plans to base around 50 staff in Amsterdam, and has applied
for a banking licence in the country.
* Other Australian lenders Macquarie, Westpac, and ANZ are also in talks to
move operations to Dublin and continental Europe.
* Europe’s biggest repo trading venue, called BrokerTec, is being moved to
Amsterdam from London, meaning a $240 billion a day repo business is
leaving the UK.
* More than 100 UK-based asset managers and funds have applied to the Irish
central bank for authorization in Ireland.

The impact of these changes will see less tax revenue for the government,
fewer jobs, and a dent in dealmaking, taking a shine off the City's lustre.

And that's just financial services.

Schaeffler, a car parts company, is closing two UK factories because of
Brexit, leading to 570 fewer jobs. Among others: There's a "Brexit-busting"
ferry that sidesteps UK trade routes, drug companies are stockpiling medicine,
and investors in the once-vibrant UK tech scene are drying up

Good post.

The City contributes in tax revenue the equivalent of the government's Defence and Transport Budget combined. Still I'm sure we don't need that money and that's why May's Brexit Plan doesn't include Services.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

So, an analogy of the situation is this...............

We have been driving in a confortable limousine. Then people started complaining about its limitations, lack of gears and automatic transmission. These people promised we could change our reliable old banger for a new luxury model with extraordinary performance and a totally independent driving experience. They then spent two years negotiating with the dealer and are now telling us the best we can get is a three-wheeler (without a steering wheel) We are now being assured (by the same people who promised us a luxury car) that, with new technology (not yet available), we will eventually get a steering wheel and even be able to upgrade to four wheels.

...............is that about it?

 

[MK Shrimper]

Pretty much sums it up Yogi.

 

[Jai]

I enjoyed the analogy that it's like trying to remove the eggs from a cake that has already been baked.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I saw a tweet, that was on the lines of "being a political moderate" but having no party to vote for. Corbyn would trounce May if only he backed a "peoples vote" as it is, he's unelectable.

the 'if only he backed a People's Vote' thing doesn't really scan. 52% of those who voted in 2016 voted Leave, 8% of those who voted in 2017 voted LibDem (the most Remain of the options), so Remain = big win isn't a given.
Labour respected the referendum result and said negotiations should be given a chance to work. They set 6 tests to be achieved before they would back a deal, the tests may seem unachievable but they are all based on Leave promises.

This way Brexit has had an opportunity to be realised, the fact that it has been trashed by May is not Labour's fault - the public voted May in to action the referendum. Leave voters should punish the Tories for trashing their dream. Remain voters should vote Labour as their refusal to back a bad deal or no deal means we won't leave the EU. Everyone lives happily ever after.

 

[Ricky Otto]

the 'if only he backed a People's Vote' thing doesn't really scan. 52% of those who voted in 2016 voted Leave, 8% of those who voted in 2017 voted LibDem (the most Remain of the options), so Remain = big win isn't a given.
Labour respected the referendum result and said negotiations should be given a chance to work. They set 6 tests to be achieved before they would back a deal, the tests may seem unachievable but they are all based on Leave promises.

This way Brexit has had an opportunity to be realised, the fact that it has been trashed by May is not Labour's fault - the public voted May in to action the referendum. Leave voters should punish the Tories for trashing their dream. Remain voters should vote Labour as their refusal to back a bad deal or no deal means we won't leave the EU. Everyone lives happily ever after.

I can see why Labour would wait for any agreement before making any moves but Corbyn has not been very strong on what the moves would be and your last paragraph suggests a "stay in the EU by default", and does that mean remain? or does it mean just not leave and stay in limbo? I agree with MK, a stronger stance and any leader of the opposition could be well ahead of May. The fact JC isn't making these strides, means he is not the person to make a credible challenge to this Tory government. I'm a floating voter and I have voted for all three major parties in my life. I voted for Labour last election, but would not again if a GE was called for next year, the way things stand.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I can see why Labour would wait for any agreement before making any moves but Corbyn has not been very strong on what the moves would be and your last paragraph suggests a "stay in the EU by default", and does that mean remain? or does it mean just not leave and stay in limbo? I agree with MK, a stronger stance and any leader of the opposition could be well ahead of May. The fact JC isn't making these strides, means he is not the person to make a credible challenge to this Tory government. I'm a floating voter and I have voted for all three major parties in my life. I voted for Labour last election, but would not again if a GE was called for next year, the way things stand.

The way things stand are going to change though. At the next GE all parties will have a fixed policy on this, the two + year limbo will be over.
The problem for Labour is 35% of their voters voted Leave. If in 2017 Labour had been a Remain party the Tories would have had a majority government and Brexit would be in the bag. The sitting on the fence policy saved us from that.
The policy is fair though - it gives the referendum result a chance to work, but it won't work. Labour's fixed policy will only be announced when May's deal is rejected. Even then they may wait days or weeks for the damage to the government peak.

Labour policy not being fixed is not an issue until there is an election. That leaves people pulling their hair out in the meantime but I expect we will all be grateful in the long run.

 

[Ricky Otto]

The way things stand are going to change though. At the next GE all parties will have a fixed policy on this, the two + year limbo will be over.
The problem for Labour is 35% of their voters voted Leave. If in 2017 Labour had been a Remain party the Tories would have had a majority government and Brexit would be in the bag. The sitting on the fence policy saved us from that.
The policy is fair though - it gives the referendum result a chance to work, but it won't work. Labour's fixed policy will only be announced when May's deal is rejected. Even then they may wait days or weeks for the damage to the government peak.

Labour policy not being fixed is not an issue until there is an election. That leaves people pulling their hair out in the meantime but I expect we will all be grateful in the long run.

I think you are making assumptions to defend your party's stance. Assuming that those 35% would that voted leave would vote Tory and discounting the votes you may have actually gained. It is by the by as I am not actually criticizing the election campaign, it got my vote. I am concerned about the complete dismissal of a way out of the brexit mess Corbyn is giving, against the will of much of his party. He is almost on the same track as May on the "delivering the will of the people" line. A flat no to a 2nd referendum is a massive middle finger up to those who voted leave if, like you said in your previous post, Labour will not go ahead with a bad deal or no deal. It would be a contradiction to say they won't back a peoples vote because of the British public voted to leave and then not deliver on that vote.

I'm also not happy with this "wait for the Tory's to hang themselves" mentality. You might think that May's deal will not get through and you might think that you'll have time to oppose no deal after that, but recent experience has shown me the unexpected does happen and you can't sit back and hope to sort it at the last minute. The Bookies had remain at 2/9 equating to an 82% chance of victory, you can't bank on the Tory's messing up to an extent that Labour get the chance to step in.

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

I enjoyed the analogy that it's like trying to remove the eggs from a cake that has already been baked.

James O'Brien, a voice of sanity in this whole debacle.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

I think you are making assumptions to defend your party's stance. Assuming that those 35% would that voted leave would vote Tory and discounting the votes you may have actually gained. It is by the by as I am not actually criticizing the election campaign, it got my vote. I am concerned about the complete dismissal of a way out of the brexit mess Corbyn is giving, against the will of much of his party. He is almost on the same track as May on the "delivering the will of the people" line. A flat no to a 2nd referendum is a massive middle finger up to those who voted leave if, like you said in your previous post, Labour will not go ahead with a bad deal or no deal. It would be a contradiction to say they won't back a peoples vote because of the British public voted to leave and then not deliver on that vote.

I'm also not happy with this "wait for the Tory's to hang themselves" mentality. You might think that May's deal will not get through and you might think that you'll have time to oppose no deal after that, but recent experience has shown me the unexpected does happen and you can't sit back and hope to sort it at the last minute. The Bookies had remain at 2/9 equating to an 82% chance of victory, you can't bank on the Tory's messing up to an extent that Labour get the chance to step in.

We are all making assumptions.
I don't think the 35% would have gone to the Tories necessarily but a big enough proportion would not have voted Labour, probably enough to see a majority Tory government.
Labour have not ruled out a 2nd referendum, only the Tories have.
Wait and see makes sense when Tory + DUP is a majority and Labour would lose Leave supporters by coming out for Remain before May had created enough damage to make opposition effective. The time is now.

 

[Ricky Otto]

James O'Brien, a voice of sanity in this whole debacle.

I'm a big fan of his LBC show, agree with him 90% of the time

 

[dcblue]

James O'Brien, a voice of sanity in this whole debacle.

Haha, the funniest post on the whole thread.

 

[dcblue]

Rigsby forget your flowery prose. Simple question - are you happy with a deal that strips the UK of the ability to influence the EU but still be bound by the rules that it makes? Yes or no.

I hope you don't mind me giving an answer. I am not happy with such a deal, but then it was negotiated by a remain pm, remain cabinet and remain civil service. They have tried to remain but thought they would appease leavers by just saying we are leaving on 29th March.
The only happy campers are in Brussels and that sums up the complete betrayal by our whole parliament.
Civil unrest will be the result.

Only hope is, May resigns at 5pm during her statement, but I won't hold my breath.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I hope you don't mind me giving an answer. I am not happy with such a deal, but then it was negotiated by a remain pm, remain cabinet and remain civil service. They have tried to remain but thought they would appease leavers by just saying we are leaving on 29th March.
The only happy campers are in Brussels and that sums up the complete betrayal by our whole parliament.
Civil unrest will be the result.

Only hope is, May resigns at 5pm during her statement, but I won't hold my breath.

Wildest prediction ever on SZ.

 

[dcblue]

Wildest prediction ever on SZ.

Have you witnessed the anger. Makes the poll tax look like a slight disagreement and we know what happened then

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Have you witnessed the anger. Makes the poll tax look like a slight disagreement and we know what happened then

The anger on social media,you mean?

We'll see about your poll tax comparison but I wouldn't put any money on it personally.

 

[blues exile]

Have you witnessed the anger. Makes the poll tax look like a slight disagreement and we know what happened then

When fantasy collides with real life, who knows the outcome. The benighted leavers who thought it would be all so simple will now have to cope with the reality of just how complicated any kind of Brexit will be. Hard lessons will have to be learnt but it was always obvious from the beginning that a clean break was never a remote possibility. Anyone that believed that was either cruelly misled or incredibly gullible.

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

Haha, the funniest post on the whole

Civil unrest will be the result.

Sorry, Wat Tyler.

 

[dcblue]

At least he had some guts, not like our parliamentarians, who have laid down and let the EU walk all over them.

 

[dcblue]

When fantasy collides with real life, who knows the outcome. The benighted leavers who thought it would be all so simple will now have to cope with the reality of just how complicated any kind of Brexit will be. Hard lessons will have to be learnt but it was always obvious from the beginning that a clean break was never a remote possibility. Anyone that believed that was either cruelly misled or incredibly gullible.

The fantasy is that brexit is complicated. When parliament is pro EU, it's no wonder they have made it seem difficult. It is incredible that so many people are so gullible to believe all the fear mongering and disinformation fed to them.
Did you hear what Merkel said yesterday. I mentioned it on a previous post. I remember Clegg saying the formation of an EU army was a fantasy.