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Brown’s First 5 Matches

ShrimperStats

@ShrimperStats on Twitter/X, Instagram & WordPress
Joined
May 4, 2021
Messages
104
I’ve had a look at some of the stats from Brown’s first 5 matches compared to the reverse fixtures from earlier in the season with Molesley.

Molesley as manager // Brown as manager
Points: 8 // 8
Non-Penalty Goals For: 5 // 4
Non-Penalty xG For: 3.57 // 3.57
Non-Penalty Goals Against: 5 // 4
Non-Penalty xG Against: 6.01 // 6.23

This shows we’ve collected the same number of points against these sides with both MM and Brown as manager, scored and conceded similar amounts of goals, and posted similar xG stats for and against.

I also looked at these stats on a 5-Game Rolling Average.

After Brown’s first 5 matches we’ve had a similar non-penalty xG as with MM (post-embargo). This means, based on the shots we’ve had, we’ve been expected to score a similar number of goals.

One other thing is that the amount of non-penalty goals we’ve actually scored since Brown’s arrival has roughly risen back up to the amount we were scoring from Match # 17-34 on a 5-Game Rolling Average. This has dropped off massively after the FGR away victory, where up to Molesley’s dismissal we only scored 2 non-penalty goals in 10 matches, from an xG of 7.36. For context, in the 10 games prior to this we scored 8 non-penalty goals from an xG of 6.89.

Imo, I think we’ve had more intensity to our play since Brown’s arrival, but I think it’s easy to mistake this for an improvement in our attacking output. Our inability to score regular goals produce high xG numbers to me shows there is a lack of creativity in the squad, instead of it being solely down to us not having a striker to finish the chances off (although obviously this would also help!).

Fwiw, I think MM knew we didn’t have the quality/squad balance to create loads of chances on a regular basis, so he thought the best way to win was to adopt a more pragmatic approach, maximising the strengths of the squad, by keeping it tight whilst trying to nick a goal or two. I think this is different to adopting an ultra-defensive style, and imo this meant that we actually had a decent chance of survival so late in the season. That’s not to say that had we kept him we would’ve had a better chance of survival than with Brown - I think we were down anyway.

Perhaps like others, it’s difficult for me to be 100% behind appointing Brown, but I think that now he’s here he needs to be offered the job for next season asap, so we can actually start planning now and have a decent, organised pre-season. Either way, any managerial appointment can only be a successful one if he’s backed by Ron. If this seasons showed us anything, it’s that you can’t expect to compete when you’re under an embargo for the first third of the season, whilst giving teams around you a massive head start. Who would’ve thought.
 
Interesting. But you can make stats swing/look good in any favour your going to direct them in. You have specifically compared Browns first 5 games to the same nit-picked games in no order to when MM was in charge. Football doesn't work in triangular theories.

For example how I look at it is like this, he has come in and won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 from five games. The football being much more pleasing on the eye, got youth back involved with Rush & Walsh, got Holmes playing how we expect him too, and for the first time since 2018 came back from a goal down to beat Barrow. Also scored 4 goals in 2 games which we never done under MM.

For me, the difference has been night & day.
 
What's an 'xG'?

Expected Goals.

It’s a metric that gives each shot you have a % of how likely it is to result in a goal. The higher the expected goals, the better the chances you are creating.
 
Interesting. But you can make stats swing/look good in any favour your going to direct them in. You have specifically compared Browns first 5 games to the same nit-picked games in no order to when MM was in charge. Football doesn't work in triangular theories.

For example how I look at it is like this, he has come in and won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 from five games. The football being much more pleasing on the eye, got youth back involved with Rush & Walsh, got Holmes playing how we expect him too, and for the first time since 2018 came back from a goal down to beat Barrow. Also scored 4 goals in 2 games which we never done under MM.

For me, the difference has been night & day.

I would agree, but with the exception of the most important of those five games, that against Colchester. I think MM's team and tactics would have drawn that match. PB said that we competed for half an hour but the players then seemed to accept defeat. He said he had a go at the team after the game. WTF? After the game? There was 17 minutes play after that Ewes goal, a second goal, and then half time. Did PB really not blast the team at half time?

Although Taylor came on for Goodship and Halford for Walsh, Egbri didn't replace the poor RHF until 67 minutes had passed. To my mind that was a poor effort from PB. I'm pleased that he learned the lesson, certainly quicker than MM learned his, but nonetheless that defeat was PB's responsibility. For the avoidance of doubt I am a PB supporter and want him to stay but to say the difference is night and day is pushing it.
 
Interesting. But you can make stats swing/look good in any favour your going to direct them in. You have specifically compared Browns first 5 games to the same nit-picked games in no order to when MM was in charge. Football doesn't work in triangular theories.

For example how I look at it is like this, he has come in and won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 from five games. The football being much more pleasing on the eye, got youth back involved with Rush & Walsh, got Holmes playing how we expect him too, and for the first time since 2018 came back from a goal down to beat Barrow. Also scored 4 goals in 2 games which we never done under MM.

For me, the difference has been night & day.

3 vs Grimsby and 1 vs Scunny with the fans.

Not that's it remotely important
 
3 vs Grimsby and 1 vs Scunny with the fans.

Not that's it remotely important
Apologies, just seen it. Must of missed it cause I was scrolling on the win column on the website I was using.
 
I would agree, but with the exception of the most important of those five games, that against Colchester. I think MM's team and tactics would have drawn that match. PB said that we competed for half an hour but the players then seemed to accept defeat. He said he had a go at the team after the game. WTF? After the game? There was 17 minutes play after that Ewes goal, a second goal, and then half time. Did PB really not blast the team at half time?

Although Taylor came on for Goodship and Halford for Walsh, Egbri didn't replace the poor RHF until 67 minutes had passed. To my mind that was a poor effort from PB. I'm pleased that he learned the lesson, certainly quicker than MM learned his, but nonetheless that defeat was PB's responsibility. For the avoidance of doubt I am a PB supporter and want him to stay but to say the difference is night and day is pushing it.

I won't lie, the Colchester game was horrible. It was real bad. I also don't know how RHF seems undroppable.

But I could counter your point by saying it was still only PBs 3rd game back, still only had 2 weeks training with the Squad. The players could also be tired after our big push at Exeter on the saturday, where we played with a high line and in the first half had a lot of posession of the ball.

Agreed, we lost, but a lot of nuances involved. I don't think anyone was expecting PB to come in and win 6 matches in a row. We were always going to lose at least one, it just unfortunatley happened to be a horrible game to lose.
 
I would agree, but with the exception of the most important of those five games, that against Colchester. I think MM's team and tactics would have drawn that match. PB said that we competed for half an hour but the players then seemed to accept defeat. He said he had a go at the team after the game. WTF? After the game? There was 17 minutes play after that Ewes goal, a second goal, and then half time. Did PB really not blast the team at half time?

Although Taylor came on for Goodship and Halford for Walsh, Egbri didn't replace the poor RHF until 67 minutes had passed. To my mind that was a poor effort from PB. I'm pleased that he learned the lesson, certainly quicker than MM learned his, but nonetheless that defeat was PB's responsibility. For the avoidance of doubt I am a PB supporter and want him to stay but to say the difference is night and day is pushing it.

Forget the players the tactics for the Col Ewe were atrocious. The players looked lost because what they were told to do and the way the team was set up made no sense. The Col Ewe fan on here said it was like PB hadn't watched them which is incredible for the most important match in the club's history.
 
Interesting. But you can make stats swing/look good in any favour your going to direct them in. You have specifically compared Browns first 5 games to the same nit-picked games in no order to when MM was in charge. Football doesn't work in triangular theories.

For example how I look at it is like this, he has come in and won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 from five games. The football being much more pleasing on the eye, got youth back involved with Rush & Walsh, got Holmes playing how we expect him too, and for the first time since 2018 came back from a goal down to beat Barrow. Also scored 4 goals in 2 games which we never done under MM.

For me, the difference has been night & day.

I don’t disagree with this mate. I also think we’ve played at a better intensity since Brown’s came in, as I said.

I specifically compared Brown’s 5 matches to these games against the same opponents as I thought it would be fairer than comparing them to our best 5 results with MM. This isn’t an anti-Brown post, like I said I think he should be offered the job.

My point was that our attacking output hasn’t actually improved against these sides since he’s came back. This isn’t a dig at either manager, more that it’s down to player personnel than systems imo.

Anyway it’s just my opinion. Thought it was interesting.
 
I don’t disagree with this mate. I also think we’ve played at a better intensity since Brown’s came in, as I said.

I specifically compared Brown’s 5 matches to these games against the same opponents as I thought it would be fairer than comparing them to our best 5 results with MM. This isn’t an anti-Brown post, like I said I think he should be offered the job.

My point was that our attacking output hasn’t actually improved against these sides since he’s came back. This isn’t a dig at either manager, more that it’s down to player personnel than systems imo.

Anyway it’s just my opinion. Thought it was interesting.

Nah don't worry I didn't take that anyway lol. Also, as much as I am pro Brown, I am very aware that he has flaws and there is red flags with him. It's been a big talking point the MM vs PB saga, game of opinions.

Going to be a very, very important summer. We must get it right....and fast
 
Spot on!

Imo, I think we’ve had more intensity to our play since Brown’s arrival, but I think it’s easy to mistake this for an improvement in our attacking output. Our inability to score regular goals produce high xG numbers to me shows there is a lack of creativity in the squad, instead of it being solely down to us not having a striker to finish the chances off (although obviously this would also help!).

Our lack of creating chances has been one of the things that affected us. We barely created good chances all season and even when we did we lacked a clinical goalscorer (see Oldham 0-0).

Interesting. But you can make stats swing/look good in any favour your going to direct them in. You have specifically compared Browns first 5 games to the same nit-picked games in no order to when MM was in charge. Football doesn't work in triangular theories.

For example how I look at it is like this, he has come in and won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 from five games. The football being much more pleasing on the eye, got youth back involved with Rush & Walsh, got Holmes playing how we expect him too, and for the first time since 2018 came back from a goal down to beat Barrow. Also scored 4 goals in 2 games which we never done under MM.

For me, the difference has been night & day.

We could compared Molesley's last 5 to Brown's first 5. Molesley has a higher xG for and a lower xG against. In fact, we haven't had a better xG than the opposition since Brown has taken over.

HOWEVER, I do agree with your second paragraph. Watching the games (except the Col U game), there appears to be a higher tempo and more zip in our passing and play than we saw before.

It is hard to blame Brown for not being able to change us into a team that creates better/more chances. We haven't got those players to turn to who can create a chance with a good cross or pass. I've not been that impressed with Holmes (only seen the Col U and Orient games since Brown took over), but he has shown with his assists for Cordner and White goals that he is probably our best crosser of the ball along with Clifford.
 
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