Cheltenham 2018

[Ricky Otto]

With under 2 weeks to go I thought I'd start up this years Cheltenham thread up.

Who look like the bankers this year? Buveur D'air, Apples Jade, Altior, SAMCRO?

Where is the value to be found? I don't think the standard is as high as previous years overall, so there is going to be value bets out there. I quite like Sceau Royal at 8/1 in the Arkle.

Lets discuss, convince me where to put my money :smile:

 

[Uncle Leo]

Horribly out of the loop with it this year - and won't even be able to watch the first two days on telly as my employer* has scheduled a workshop in Vienna on the Tuesday and Wednesday :nope:






*Bear in mind we are a sports betting provider!

 

[Ricky Otto]

Horribly out of the loop with it this year - and won't even be able to watch the first two days on telly as my employer* has scheduled a workshop in Vienna on the Tuesday and Wednesday :nope:






*Bear in mind we are a sports betting provider!

Very disappointing for you! Tuesday is my favourite day too! I'm sure Vienna is not without its pleasures though

 

[BrettieAngell]

I'm there on the Thursday and Friday again, 6th year in a row! :smile:

Not as many bankers as previous years, I would say the ones you mentioned plus Footpad. Although Ailtor could potentially be up against Douvan (last I heard anyway) which would be epic!

Im already on Un De Sceaux and Might Bite NRNB.

 

[Ricky Otto]

I'm there on the Thursday and Friday again, 6th year in a row! :smile:

Not as many bankers as previous years, I would say the ones you mentioned plus Footpad. Although Ailtor could potentially be up against Douvan (last I heard anyway) which would be epic!

Im already on Un De Sceaux and Might Bite NRNB.

I don't agree on the arkle, think footpad has a chance but don't think the bookies have that one right, far too short. I'm backing sceau royal into 6/1 now but I got 8/1. St calvados looks good too, think the arkle is open.
Mullins has said both douvan and faugheen will run, will be interesting to see if they are anything like they were. Without a run this season I think altior will be too much for douvan even if there is something left there.

I'm totally with you on un de sceaux

 

[Uncle Leo]

Interesting developments with Samcro...the trainer has suggested he may send him to the Supreme Novices Hurdle instead if the ground is soft or heavy. bet365 have, apparently, been absolutely filled in as they didn't appear to move their price too quickly.

I got on at 9/1 this morning and the horse is now down to 5/2. Non-runner no bet, so thought it was worth a punt.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Interesting developments with Samcro...the trainer has suggested he may send him to the Supreme Novices Hurdle instead if the ground is soft or heavy. bet365 have, apparently, been absolutely filled in as they didn't appear to move their price too quickly.

I got on at 9/1 this morning and the horse is now down to 5/2. Non-runner no bet, so thought it was worth a punt.

Wow 9/1?? I backed SAMCRO anti-post for the supreme novices NRNB in Jan and only got 5/2. Definitely worth a punt. I'd have put a massive ew on at 9/1. No way it won't finish in the places (except falling).

 

[Uncle Leo]

Wow 9/1?? I backed SAMCRO anti-post for the supreme novices NRNB in Jan and only got 5/2. Definitely worth a punt. I'd have put a massive ew on at 9/1. No way it won't finish in the places (except falling).

6/1 with Betfair sportsbook the best now.

I understand A LOT of people backed Samcro at 14/1 yesterday.

 

[Ricky Otto]

6/1 with Betfair sportsbook the best now.

I understand A LOT of people backed Samcro at 14/1 yesterday.

Betfair isn't NRNB on the supreme novices. Not gonna risk that when he could still run the ballymore. Thanks for the heads up though.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Betfair isn't NRNB on the supreme novices. Not gonna risk that when he could still run the ballymore. Thanks for the heads up though.

Ah, I did wonder why they were so out of line still...

 

[Uncle Leo]

The word from the owners on Samcro...

 

[Grayson]

I'm horribly out of the loop too, despite also working in the sports betting industry. Last year was depressing with barely anyone in my office having a clue. I miss the days when our office was full of betting people, not bland corporate types.

I've been given 2 horses for the same race frustratingly. In the Fred Winter on Wednesday:
- Oistrakh Le Noir 12/1
- Kuraka 25/1

 

[Ricky Otto]

OLBG do an article every year that give you a profile of what previous winners of each race had in common (https://cheltenham.olbg.com/). I use this every year to do a trend analysis and try and find value in each race. I put in all the trends and also Cheltenham pedigree, which in my experience is an important factor. It has come up with a couple of interesting selections outside of the favourites :


Next destination in supreme novices (I didn't include SAMCRO as it didn't look like he was running)


Sceau Royal in the Arkle

All other races I have done (Champion Hurdle, Mares Hurdle and Queen Mother) all score heavily in favour of the favourite.

 

[BrettieAngell]

I heard that Sceau Royal isn't running now, is that right?

 

[Ricky Otto]

I heard that Sceau Royal isn't running now, is that right?

Yep that's right, confirmed last night. Gonna have to rethink the arkle

 

[Blueronron]

Had £ 10 ew on Supreme Hurdle Kalashnikov at 6/1, could do with more rain Tuesday

£ 5 on Barry G to be top jockey at 9/2, Ruby at 4/6 far too short for me as well as price :smile:

 

[Uncle Leo]

Had £ 10 ew on Supreme Hurdle Kalashnikov at 6/1, could do with more rain Tuesday

£ 5 on Barry G to be top jockey at 9/2, Ruby at 4/6 far too short for me as well as price :smile:

And Ruby is only back from injury this week as well. Like you say, 4/6 is not tempting.

 

[Blueronron]

I agree UL but the power stable he rides for the horses could carry him and win

Be interested to see how Bryony Frost gets on, now in with the Big Boys, I reckon a few ew bets on her will pay out (Famous last words)

 

[Ricky Otto]

Had £ 10 ew on Supreme Hurdle Kalashnikov at 6/1, could do with more rain Tuesday

£ 5 on Barry G to be top jockey at 9/2, Ruby at 4/6 far too short for me as well as price :smile:

Think Barry Gerraty is a good bet

And Ruby is only back from injury this week as well. Like you say, 4/6 is not tempting.

I agree UL but the power stable he rides for the horses could carry him and win

Be interested to see how Bryony Frost gets on, now in with the Big Boys, I reckon a few ew bets on her will pay out (Famous last words)

I don't think Mullins stable boasts the talent of previous years

I've been very impressed with Bryony Frost, I must confess female jockeys are usually a negative for me but the horses just seem to perform for her and there does seem to be genuine bonds between her and her mounts.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Worth keeping an eye out on the various offers doing the rounds...

Paddy Power - day one, money back as a free bet if your runner loses and the favourite wins. Max £10

SkyBet - first race each day, money back as a free bet if your runner loses. Max £20

Add them as you see them!