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Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

MattE

Manager
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
1,185
Can I check my understanding of how the trials work.

Get 30,000 people, give vaccine to 15,000 and placebo to 15,000. Wait until there are around 90 positive Covid tests. Work out how many are from the placebo or vaccine group. Then the effective rate is, roughly, 1 - ( No in vaccine / no in placebo).

During the test no one is deliberately exposed to the virus.
The large number of people in the trial statisitically means that anything better than 50/50 would indicate a vaccine working rather than peoples different levels of exposure to the virus?

Thanks
 

Pubey

Frequent flyer in all buzzing chatrooms
Joined
Jan 3, 2018
Messages
31,470
Can I check my understanding of how the trials work.

Get 30,000 people, give vaccine to 15,000 and placebo to 15,000. Wait until there are around 90 positive Covid tests. Work out how many are from the placebo or vaccine group. Then the effective rate is, roughly, 1 - ( No in vaccine / no in placebo).

During the test no one is deliberately exposed to the virus.
The large number of people in the trial statisitically means that anything better than 50/50 would indicate a vaccine working rather than peoples different levels of exposure to the virus?

Thanks
Yes this is basically spot on, although not sure what you mean with your last paragraph. The trial sample size is determined to be big enough to ensure that the effect seen in the primary endpoint (the vaccine efficacy) is down to the actual vaccine, and not down to chance. The study is randomised and blinded, to ensure that the vaccine efficacy is not biased by differences in patient characteristics or levels of exposure etc.

What hasn't really been reported outside of Moderna's actual press release is that they provided a bit more information compared to Pfizer. The safety profile seems good, they claim the efficacy is maintained in older people (a concern because older people have weakened immune systems and so a worry was that the vaccine might be less effective in a group who have most to benefit from it). Also, they reported that in 11 of the 90 COVID cases in the placebo arm, the infection was severe (e.g., hospitalised/respiratory failure), in the 5 COVID cases seen in the vaccine arm, none of the cases were severe. This is also positive news.
 

shrimpboy

Life President
Joined
Oct 25, 2003
Messages
5,883
Location
East Cheshire
A few things.
Out shopping over last few days and I have noticed, when walking past Priory Aldi, I believe the mask wearing take up is close to 100%.
A few haven't got the "over" the nose too bit understood.
A few seem to have disposable masks which are on the 475th wearing and as useful as the proverbial chocolate teapot.
Most people are just wearing them to conform rather than because they actually protect you from this deadly plague... Masks are a placebo. And it's the mask wearers who get closest to you in the supermarket.
 

Rootshallbloke

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
20,097
Location
Westcliff riviera
Most people are just wearing them to conform rather than because they actually protect you from this deadly plague... Masks are a placebo. And it's the mask wearers who get closest to you in the supermarket.
All well and good you telling us that most people are only wearing them to conform, but how do you know? And I don't know what supermarket you go to, but the ones we have been in don't have that issue. Mind you, my view is based on only a few stores.
 

shrimpboy

Life President
Joined
Oct 25, 2003
Messages
5,883
Location
East Cheshire
All well and good you telling us that most people are only wearing them to conform, but how do you know? And I don't know what supermarket you go to, but the ones we have been in don't have that issue. Mind you, my view is based on only a few stores.

I'm basing that on the fact that most people weren't wearing them before they were made mandatory, and as Massimo Giovanni said, people don't wear them properly, which suggests they don't take it very seriously. They constantly touch and fiddle with them which is unhygienic, they reuse disposable ones etc. Also, the supermarkets aren't enforcing it - I've been in shops several times mask-free and not been challenged.

But like you, that's just based on my personal experience.
 

Massimo Giovanni

Life President
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
7,475
Location
Siena
I'm basing that on the fact that most people weren't wearing them before they were made mandatory, and as Massimo Giovanni said, people don't wear them properly, which suggests they don't take it very seriously. They constantly touch and fiddle with them which is unhygienic, they reuse disposable ones etc. Also, the supermarkets aren't enforcing it - I've been in shops several times mask-free and not been challenged.

But like you, that's just based on my personal experience.
There are several common agreement points between my post, RHB post and your post.
Unfortunately statistics don't exist where by those testing covid positive are asked if they wear a mask, wear it properly, wear a clean and hygienic mask, adhere to distancing, wash etc.
I know people who contracted covid early on, I know people who have caught it post mask mandatory; and from that very small data my gut feeling is that the wash, mask and distance has been effective, except when children, youths, students are involved in the situations to adversely effect the adult behaviour by the.?...........adults.
 

londonblue

Topgun Pilot
Joined
Feb 18, 2004
Messages
15,278
There are several common agreement points between my post, RHB post and your post.
Unfortunately statistics don't exist where by those testing covid positive are asked if they wear a mask, wear it properly, wear a clean and hygienic mask, adhere to distancing, wash etc.
I know people who contracted covid early on, I know people who have caught it post mask mandatory; and from that very small data my gut feeling is that the wash, mask and distance has been effective, except when children, youths, students are involved in the situations to adversely effect the adult behaviour by the.?...........adults.
Even if there statistics on this I don't think it would prove anything. Isn't it the case that mask wearing will (possibly) reduce the chances of you passing on the virus but won't do anything to stop you catching the virus?
 

Ricky Otto

President
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Messages
6,266
Location
Chelmsford
Even if there statistics on this I don't think it would prove anything. Isn't it the case that mask wearing will (possibly) reduce the chances of you passing on the virus but won't do anything to stop you catching the virus?
That was my understanding too
 

Rootshallbloke

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
20,097
Location
Westcliff riviera
That was my understanding too
Even if there statistics on this I don't think it would prove anything. Isn't it the case that mask wearing will (possibly) reduce the chances of you passing on the virus but won't do anything to stop you catching the virus?
That was my understanding too
But surely, if a mask will possibly reduce the chances of you passing on the virus then it must also reduce the chances of you getting the virus if you don't have it? For every action there is a reaction they say.
 

Pubey

Frequent flyer in all buzzing chatrooms
Joined
Jan 3, 2018
Messages
31,470
Even if there statistics on this I don't think it would prove anything. Isn't it the case that mask wearing will (possibly) reduce the chances of you passing on the virus but won't do anything to stop you catching the virus?
Actually, there is some data emerging that it will stop you catching the virus, or may benefit viral load/severity.

The issue/failure of mask messaging was to say it may not help you but will help others. Unfortunately, a lot of people are inherently selfish and so that message doesn't really resonate. If people were told sooner than it'll stop them from getting the virus, then perhaps we'd have seen better compliance.
 

MattE

Manager
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
1,185
I'm basing that on the fact that most people weren't wearing them before they were made mandatory, and as Massimo Giovanni said, people don't wear them properly, which suggests they don't take it very seriously. They constantly touch and fiddle with them which is unhygienic, they reuse disposable ones etc. Also, the supermarkets aren't enforcing it - I've been in shops several times mask-free and not been challenged.

But like you, that's just based on my personal experience.
So it's not a fact then - just your experience
 

Ricky Otto

President
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Messages
6,266
Location
Chelmsford
But surely, if a mask will possibly reduce the chances of you passing on the virus then it must also reduce the chances of you getting the virus if you don't have it? For every action there is a reaction they say.
Yes, sorry I agreed with that post but now realise I didn't read it properly. My understanding was that the masks main function/intention was to stop people passing the disease rather than preventing people getting it. I would assume what you say is correct though. I wouldn't preach any of this with any kind of certainty as there is so much misinformation and conflicting information, even from sources you would have thought to be reliable.
 

Tangled up in Blue

Certified Senior Citizen
Joined
May 24, 2004
Messages
29,567
Location
Sant Cugat del Vallès
Yes this is how I understood things, how correct the numbers on that graphic are? Who knows?
Dunno.Since the graphics are based on research conducted by John Hopkins UNI in the US I'd imagine the figures are pretty accurate.

Personally, I have no problem whatsoever about wearing a mask in public (it is after all a legal requirement here in Spain) and really can't see what all the fuss (by some people) is about.
 
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