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Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

jackj13

Youth Team
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Messages
979
It's clearly the start of a third wave. Even though the numbers are low it's showing exponential growth in the NW.

We don't know how big this wave will be because we don't know yet about the mortality rate we expect to see because of the different case mix (younger people who are un/under-vaccinated), and we don't know how quickly vaccines in this group over the next few weeks will hold back the tide.

As I've said about 100x times, I'm desperate like everyone for these restrictions to be lifted and life to return to some kind of normal. However, I'd rather delay the June date by 2-4 weeks than risk it flaring back up through the summer and potentially causing issues in September. The transmissibility estimate of the delta variant is somewhere between 40-70%. From modelling I've seen if it's at the lower end then maybe it's safe to reopen, but if it's at the higher end then we could see another wave similar to Jan and the expected mortality may be 10-20,000, which in my view is an unacceptable number.

It's clearly a very difficult decision, but IMO it's in the balance and we should err on the side of caution and get jabs into arms ASAP while collecting more data.
The thing is the modelling I’ve seen from sage for hospitalisations for reopening scenarios, the real life data is below every single one.

I’m no expert at all and don’t pretend to be but I Don’t really understand how real life data can perform better than every single estimate and things get delayed.
 

dcblue

Newbie
Joined
Aug 6, 2010
Messages
208
The thing is the modelling I’ve seen from sage for hospitalisations for reopening scenarios, the real life data is below every single one.

I’m no expert at all and don’t pretend to be but I Don’t really understand how real life data can perform better than every single estimate and things get delayed.
A lot of experts can't understand that either.
 

jackj13

Youth Team
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Messages
979

Tangled up in Blue

Certified Senior Citizen
Joined
May 24, 2004
Messages
30,995
Location
Sant Cugat del Vallès
Yes an interesting read. However the important dates being between March 2020 and Feb 2021. So before some states in the US fully reopened recently.
Indeed.The analysis shows that between March 2020 and February 2021, there were a fifth more deaths than in a normal year for the US (+20.2%) and a little bit under a fifth for the UK (+19.6%),
 

jackj13

Youth Team
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Messages
979
Indeed.The analysis shows that between March 2020 and February 2021, there were a fifth more deaths than in a normal year for the US (+20.2%) and a little bit under a fifth for the UK (+19.6%),
Don’t get me wrong they’re not nice stats to read but I’m not sure why it’s relevant to Texas reopening in March this year. Or have I missed the point?
 

Massimo Giovanni

Old Timer
Joined
May 10, 2011
Messages
8,240
Location
Siena
@jackj13 , like you I don't understand the apples and pear comparisons. Didn't Texas have a very severe winter with huge snow falls and other unusual events that would cause major changes in social behavior too? And doesn't Texas have a large % of population that are migrant and not green card holders so under the radar?
 

The General

The Mouse
Joined
Oct 24, 2003
Messages
21,055
Location
My Gaff
Finally got my jab booked next weds in shoebury after getting a text thru from my surgery. No wonder people arent getting vaxxed when its this much of a pain in the bum!
 

hadenoughblue

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Messages
1,074
Finally got my jab booked next weds in shoebury after getting a text thru from my surgery. No wonder people arent getting vaxxed when its this much of a pain in the bum!
What are you going on about? 40+ million people have had a jab and nearly 30 million have had two.

I think you might want to look closer to home (ie yourself) than criticise the vaccine process.
 

MattE

Manager
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
2,356
It doesn't provide 100% protection and there are people who won't have it for whatever reason. They could die or be seriously ill for a long time.

Lets hope it doesn't mutate to a variant that evades the vaccine of the world will be truly ****ed.
You also need both jabs to get the maximum protection - it seems this new variant is mainly impacting the unvaxed and the people who only have had one dose.
 

RHB

Super Moderator ⭐
Staff member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
21,448
Location
Westcliff riviera
Finally got my jab booked next weds in shoebury after getting a text thru from my surgery. No wonder people arent getting vaxxed when its this much of a pain in the bum!
I think the rest of us have been given it in the arm. I guess they're using you as a guinea pig by vaccinating your back side. :Winking:

Bugger, I've just seen post 6352, too late yet again:Sorry:
 

Pubey

Frequent flyer in all buzzing chatrooms
Joined
Jan 3, 2018
Messages
32,045
The thing is the modelling I’ve seen from sage for hospitalisations for reopening scenarios, the real life data is below every single one.

I’m no expert at all and don’t pretend to be but I Don’t really understand how real life data can perform better than every single estimate and things get delayed.
I don't follow what you mean. The models are projections of the future (subject to uncertainties and various issues which mean that then looking back at them to judge their 'accuracy' is not necessarily a fair way to judge how useful they might have been when it came to making decisions).

If you mean that the SAGE/Imperial model has always over-predicted the severity of the wave of case/hospitalisation/deaths that we ended up seeing, then I'd slightly disagree. I think their model is potentially a little pessimistic, but they account for the uncertainty in their inputs appropriately and I think it's right that they tend to err on the conservative side. I'd rather have a cautious model informing the govt than an optimistic one.

The reality of human nature, health, and social structures means that even your best mathematical model is going to be a simplification of reality, and that leads to uncertainty and they can be wrong. However, it's better than nothing and just leaving it to guesswork and political hope. Remember in the early days when the politicians were trying to spin it as 'nothing to worry about' and the experts were saying 'this is actually a big deal'... I tend to hold on to that and recognise that the epidemiologists/modellers/health researchers/experts do generally know what they're doing (even if they disagree on the details and argue among themselves), and they're trying to get us out of this mess. They're living in it too.
 

jackj13

Youth Team
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Messages
979
I don't follow what you mean. The models are projections of the future (subject to uncertainties and various issues which mean that then looking back at them to judge their 'accuracy' is not necessarily a fair way to judge how useful they might have been when it came to making decisions).

If you mean that the SAGE/Imperial model has always over-predicted the severity of the wave of case/hospitalisation/deaths that we ended up seeing, then I'd slightly disagree. I think their model is potentially a little pessimistic, but they account for the uncertainty in their inputs appropriately and I think it's right that they tend to err on the conservative side. I'd rather have a cautious model informing the govt than an optimistic one.

The reality of human nature, health, and social structures means that even your best mathematical model is going to be a simplification of reality, and that leads to uncertainty and they can be wrong. However, it's better than nothing and just leaving it to guesswork and political hope. Remember in the early days when the politicians were trying to spin it as 'nothing to worry about' and the experts were saying 'this is actually a big deal'... I tend to hold on to that and recognise that the epidemiologists/modellers/health researchers/experts do generally know what they're doing (even if they disagree on the details and argue among themselves), and they're trying to get us out of this mess. They're living in it too.
Well obviously we need to see what Boris says. And I do agree you need to be on the conservative side of predictions/scenarios.

However what I don’t understand is you get to the real time of when these scenarios predicted, the data is below the scenarios of predicted hospitalisations with the reopening and the last date of restrictions being lifted is still at risk? What’s the point of the models if the data is better than expected but it doesn’t mean anything?

These are the scenarios I’m talking about.
 

Attachments

Tinks

Worlds Greatest Cook.⭐
Joined
Nov 17, 2006
Messages
5,363
Location
Eastwood
Finally got my jab booked next weds in shoebury after getting a text thru from my surgery. No wonder people arent getting vaxxed when its this much of a pain in the bum!
Some vaccination hubs (the large ones ie Cliffs, Saxon Hall, Shoebury, Mill etc have been putting out please via FB groups saying any local residents that wish for a vaccine can just come along if over 18.
I know last week there was a big plea from the Shoebury Hub
 

hadenoughblue

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Messages
1,074
How on earth has the R gone up to 1.4. What age group is this based on and who've been tested and have or haven't these people been vaccinated. So many questions but with the vaccine, I would have thought the R would be more stable now.
 

Special Blue

Coach
Joined
Aug 13, 2010
Messages
1,452
How on earth has the R gone up to 1.4. What age group is this based on and who've been tested and have or haven't these people been vaccinated. So many questions but with the vaccine, I would have thought the R would be more stable now.
I think it's complacency mate! People thinking we're through it and near the end!
Having 2 jabs doesn't make you invincible but this is what some may think!
Sadly this is far from over and lifting of restrictions is a decision I wouldn't want to make.
 

hadenoughblue

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Messages
1,074
I think it's complacency mate! People thinking we're through it and near the end!
Having 2 jabs doesn't make you invincible but this is what some may think!
Sadly this is far from over and lifting of restrictions is a decision I wouldn't want to make.
It's the uknown which is frustrating. Is this jab actually working, god knows.
 
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