- Dec 21, 2012
The thing is the modelling I’ve seen from sage for hospitalisations for reopening scenarios, the real life data is below every single one.It's clearly the start of a third wave. Even though the numbers are low it's showing exponential growth in the NW.
We don't know how big this wave will be because we don't know yet about the mortality rate we expect to see because of the different case mix (younger people who are un/under-vaccinated), and we don't know how quickly vaccines in this group over the next few weeks will hold back the tide.
As I've said about 100x times, I'm desperate like everyone for these restrictions to be lifted and life to return to some kind of normal. However, I'd rather delay the June date by 2-4 weeks than risk it flaring back up through the summer and potentially causing issues in September. The transmissibility estimate of the delta variant is somewhere between 40-70%. From modelling I've seen if it's at the lower end then maybe it's safe to reopen, but if it's at the higher end then we could see another wave similar to Jan and the expected mortality may be 10-20,000, which in my view is an unacceptable number.
It's clearly a very difficult decision, but IMO it's in the balance and we should err on the side of caution and get jabs into arms ASAP while collecting more data.
I’m no expert at all and don’t pretend to be but I Don’t really understand how real life data can perform better than every single estimate and things get delayed.