Double Dip coming up?

[The Flying Scotsman]

So the economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter. Another three months without growth and we will be back in recession. Inflation rising, VAT rising, Cuts happening across the board, Interest rates set to rise etc etc etc...

Anyone else feeling as depressed about all this? I personally think this government are making things harder than they need to be.

 

[Pubey]

There has been a complete lack of strategy from the govt regarding economic growth. Their cuts have been made without any reference to stalling our economy and that sees us slipping back into a recession. Yes it's worrying times.

 

[Rob Noxious]

The Billy Bragg revival is just around the corner. :reporter:

 

[pringlejon]

This shrink can be put down to the bad weather in december. I cant remember the official figure at which it cost the country, but it was enough. I agree the govt havent handled the situation as well as many would've hoped but this figure isnt entirely their fault.

 

[number11]

So the economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter. Another three months without growth and we will be back in recession. Inflation rising, VAT rising, Cuts happening across the board, Interest rates set to rise etc etc etc...

Anyone else feeling as depressed about all this? I personally think this government are making things harder than they need to be.

There seems to be some mistake. There is no link to the Guardian attached?! A poster reading source material and then forming their own view and starting a debate just doesn't seem right......

For what it's worth, yes I agree with the original poster, things do seem to be a bit depresssing at the moment and am keeping a keen eye on the interest rates potentially rising....

 

[Uncle Leo]

The Billy Bragg revival is just around the corner. :reporter:

If that means his next album is going to be as good as "Brewing Up..." then I'm cool with that.

 

[Cricko]

This has been sitting on the back burner for a long time..I was never in doubt that we were not on the road to recovery and it was a false dawn a few people were "talking up"..I think this government are trying to stifle the country not help it..All the deep cuts are just to deep ..We had a huge debt after WW2 that we eventually repaid after a sensible period of 50 years,what is the hurry in trying to sort this mountain of debt out overnight with such drastic measures that are hurting the poor and even some of the middle classes and crippling this country.

The increased non-stop fuel duty increases for one will ensure many companies leave this country..I for one doubt that there will ever be enough jobs created in this country in future to fulfil job requirements..The country has been a warehouse for imports and a financial disaster waiting to happen for years.Previous governments as with the current one are just not in touch with reality any more.

I do feel very sorry for the youngsters of today as with so many companies cutting back and vacancies for graduates shrinking by the day...god only knows what is in store in the long run for that ever increasing populate.

I have said before Interest rates will be put under pressure and that will signal even deeper grief for us all.

 

[The Flying Scotsman]

There seems to be some mistake. There is no link to the Guardian attached?! A poster reading source material and then forming their own view and starting a debate just doesn't seem right......

Sorry!! I try to avoid reading papers that swing too far either way.

Cricko - I agree with many of your sentiments there.

When we were in recession a couple of years ago, i don't think it affected people as much as normal due to VAT dropping to 15% and the biggest factor with interest rates falling to just 0.5% meaning that people still had a few quid in their pocket.

The general view seems to be that the weather will have had a factor in these latest figures, but even then growth would appear to have been flat at best. With VAT up, inflation up and interest rates set to go one way you will now see people being hit in the pocket and growth slowing even further or continuing to shrink.

 

[pringlejon]

Although I previously said the weather caused these figures to be worse than they should be, Cricko's point is bang on the money.

The government has recently been and will always be target driven! They set a percentage of students they want to go into university, then realise they can't actually afford to fund this so have to increase fees. And now these students have to battle each other for jobs which just arent there, silly! I'm obviously in a biased position having recently graduated and having trouble finding a job though!

It is a catch 22 for the government though, they pay a reported £120million interest each day on loans. With payments this high, cuts have to be massive to begin cutting the deficit and obviously everyone is unhappy and it has a huge effect on UK companies.

 

[pringlejon]

(So if anyone wants to offer me a job, let me know!!)

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

The Billy Bragg revival is just around the corner. :reporter:

(Just)Waiting for the great leap forward.:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

There seems to be some mistake. There is no link to the Guardian attached?! A poster reading source material and then forming their own view and starting a debate just doesn't seem right......

For what it's worth, yes I agree with the original poster, things do seem to be a bit depresssing at the moment and am keeping a keen eye on the interest rates potentially rising....

Here you go.Since you asked so nicely.:winking:
http://gu.com/p/2mjdk
Combine that with no plan B for growth(from the private sector) and you have a recipe for economic disaster or at least a double dip recession.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

If that means his next album is going to be as good as "Brewing Up..." then I'm cool with that.

Didn't have you pegged for a BB fan.:stunned:
(Our 17 year old is a big fan of his last cd which she copied onto her laptop from my original).

 

[BrettieAngell]

So the economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter. Another three months without growth and we will be back in recession. Inflation rising, VAT rising, Cuts happening across the board, Interest rates set to rise etc etc etc...

Anyone else feeling as depressed about all this? I personally think this government are making things harder than they need to be.

Having been personally affected for the last year and a half I'm still depressed from the last recession!

 

[Neil_F]

This has been sitting on the back burner for a long time..I was never in doubt that we were not on the road to recovery and it was a false dawn a few people were "talking up"..I think this government are trying to stifle the country not help it..All the deep cuts are just to deep ..We had a huge debt after WW2 that we eventually repaid after a sensible period of 50 years,what is the hurry in trying to sort this mountain of debt out overnight with such drastic measures that are hurting the poor and even some of the middle classes and crippling this country.

The cuts haven't started yet. Public spending in December was up 5.2% year-on-year. In fact, the nominal spending projections show public spending rising every year to 2015. There are no total expenditure cuts at all. The reason is that more and more public spending is required to service our debt obligations (i.e. interest) and hence spending on services and social security was cut to compensate.

Debt levels aren't really that relevant; addressing the deficit was. For about 18 months the bond markets and the ratings agencies scoured the globe for structural weakness and a lack of a credible plan for addressing their deficit. Any nation (that wasn't a reserve currency) that failed to address the deficit was downgraded and economic disaster ensued (e.g. Greece, and possibly Spain soon to follow).

If any doubt had been cast on Britain's ability to finance its debt obligations (i.e. there was no credible plan to address the deficit) then there were two possible scenarios: we wouldn't have been able to borrow to finance our short-term obligations meaning being bailed out by the IMF. Alternatively, the cost of borrowing (i.e. the interest rate that we would have to pay) would have risen. This would have pushed up servicing cost down the road and would have lead to bigger cuts around 2013/14, it also would have meant that interest rates would have had to rise, thus ending the monetary stimulus and hitting growth hard.

An often heard response to this is why should we be bothered what the ratings agencies and the debt markets think? I'm afraid a nation so in need of the debt markets can't be sniffy about what their thoughts are...

GDP figures are pretty weak, though manufacturing growth was quite strong and consumer confience measures actually rose by 8% (not quite sure why).

I agree that a stronger growth agenda needs to be formulated

 

[Uncle Leo]

Didn't have you pegged for a BB fan.:stunned:
(Our 17 year old is a big fan of his last cd which she copied onto her laptop from my original).

I see what you're saying, although if I only liked artists with whom I had a political affiliation, my music collection would be pretty bare (Dear Morrissey - love the songs, but also love sausages and burgers; sorry). Having said that, I'm a big fan of his support for reclaiming the flag of St George from the far right and 'The Few' is an absolute gem.

Really got in to Bragg over the last few years and the tickets my wife bought to see him at the Roundhouse a few years ago remain one of the best birthday presents I've ever received.

Apologies all :off topic:

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

The cuts haven't started yet. Public spending in December was up 5.2% year-on-year. In fact, the nominal spending projections show public spending rising every year to 2015. There are no total expenditure cuts at all. The reason is that more and more public spending is required to service our debt obligations (i.e. interest) and hence spending on services and social security was cut to compensate.

Debt levels aren't really that relevant; addressing the deficit was. For about 18 months the bond markets and the ratings agencies scoured the globe for structural weakness and a lack of a credible plan for addressing their deficit. Any nation (that wasn't a reserve currency) that failed to address the deficit was downgraded and economic disaster ensued (e.g. Greece, and possibly Spain soon to follow).

If any doubt had been cast on Britain's ability to finance its debt obligations (i.e. there was no credible plan to address the deficit) then there were two possible scenarios: we wouldn't have been able to borrow to finance our short-term obligations meaning being bailed out by the IMF. Alternatively, the cost of borrowing (i.e. the interest rate that we would have to pay) would have risen. This would have pushed up servicing cost down the road and would have lead to bigger cuts around 2013/14, it also would have meant that interest rates would have had to rise, thus ending the monetary stimulus and hitting growth hard.

An often heard response to this is why should we be bothered what the ratings agencies and the debt markets think? I'm afraid a nation so in need of the debt markets can't be sniffy about what their thoughts are...

GDP figures are pretty weak, though manufacturing growth was quite strong and consumer confience measures actually rose by 8% (not quite sure why).

I agree that a stronger growth agenda needs to be formulated

Can't you just post a link to a wishy-washy Grauniad article written by someone who doesn't really understand economics instead of bringing in all your facts and reasoned arguments?

 

[Cricko]

The cuts haven't started yet. Public spending in December was up 5.2% year-on-year. In fact, the nominal spending projections show public spending rising every year to 2015. There are no total expenditure cuts at all. The reason is that more and more public spending is required to service our debt obligations (i.e. interest) and hence spending on services and social security was cut to compensate.

Debt levels aren't really that relevant; addressing the deficit was. For about 18 months the bond markets and the ratings agencies scoured the globe for structural weakness and a lack of a credible plan for addressing their deficit. Any nation (that wasn't a reserve currency) that failed to address the deficit was downgraded and economic disaster ensued (e.g. Greece, and possibly Spain soon to follow).

If any doubt had been cast on Britain's ability to finance its debt obligations (i.e. there was no credible plan to address the deficit) then there were two possible scenarios: we wouldn't have been able to borrow to finance our short-term obligations meaning being bailed out by the IMF. Alternatively, the cost of borrowing (i.e. the interest rate that we would have to pay) would have risen. This would have pushed up servicing cost down the road and would have lead to bigger cuts around 2013/14, it also would have meant that interest rates would have had to rise, thus ending the monetary stimulus and hitting growth hard.

An often heard response to this is why should we be bothered what the ratings agencies and the debt markets think? I'm afraid a nation so in need of the debt markets can't be sniffy about what their thoughts are...

GDP figures are pretty weak, though manufacturing growth was quite strong and consumer confience measures actually rose by 8% (not quite sure why).

I agree that a stronger growth agenda needs to be formulated

Which Government Dept was it you said you worked for ?....:winking:

 

[The Big Shrimp]

The Billy Bragg revival is just around the corner. :reporter:

Maybe the government need to go Back To Basics?!

 

[Phippsy]

Just a quick one slightly off topic chaps...........My gf and me are currently looking into buying a house as FTB's, we have the 10% saved (can't do more unfortunately)
But do you think it's not a good time to buy? or as house prices are coming down should i buy now?
In no way would i be pushing the finances to hard, and would looking to fix for a couple of years.
Just interested what the majority think that's all.