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Echo News 'Fans could be back for start of next season'

Again: a little homework, please.
According to Science. com: "In late May, Sweden's overall COVID-19 mortality rate was estimated at 39.57 deaths per 100,000 residents; at the same time, the U.S. mortality rate was estimated at 30.02 deaths per 100,000 residents.'

Cherry picking stats eh?

Sweden now 500 per Million. UK 623 per Million. I know populations and population density is key to this, and I never for one second think we should of been like Sweden.

US is now 365 per Million.

However, cases is a more accurate way of tracking the disease. So.……...

A week after OMG god second spike VE day, 7 day average of confirmed cases 3777
A week after first lockdown easing and OMG second spike on 10th May 7 day average cases 3502
A week after bank holiday beach OMG second spike and Cummings fiasco 7 day average cases 2164
A week after London protests / riots 7 day average cases 1358
As of yesterday 7 day average cases 1294

Homework done. Zero chance of a 2nd wave.
 
The virus will not mutate, according to all known data:

Shouldn't you have added the word "FACT" after that as you clearly are an epidemiological expert?

Spanish flu was in a different league from the Wuhan plague, ( I'm sorry to disappoint all the Covid cheerleaders out there) and that abated after its second wave. I don't think any scientist believes that it just died out. It more than likely mutated into something less deadly.

Evolution shows us that any virus that regularly kills its host doesn't last long. It is only the milder strains that have any longevity.


Until then, it's potentially deadly.

Just like flu then? That is potentially deadly.

It will just become a virus that's treatable when a vaccine is found.
There are vaccines for various types of flu - note the jab each winter -

And yet even with a vaccine and a recognised treatment flu still kills thousands each year, and in a bad year as many as have supposedly succumbed to this virus.

If flu, even with a vaccine is so deadly shouldn't we have a "lockdown" each winter?

But there is no national panic each winter because, amongst other reasons, it is barely reported.

Even once a vaccine is found this virus will still be "potentially deadly", so what do we do?
 
I'm not going to bash the government about this because no-one knew what was coming.

Well, that’s not strictly true, is it?

We watched it spread around the globe for 3-months, naively believing it wouldn’t affect us.

We could have followed in the footsteps of other countries, but we didn’t, we chose to go another route.

No surprise that they handled theirs better than we did.
 
Oh, listen, I totally understand why the world entered Pandemic mode... I also think that we are where we are BECAUSE we locked down and if we hadn't it would have been far, far worse.

But the VE days parties, the general easing of regulations, the blatant disregard of social distancing by many... that should have had an effect by now and it hasn't. Meaning that it probably won't.

It might spike up again in October time when we all start retreating indoors again... but I honestly don't think the world can afford to lockdown again.
I agree your last point, because by 'afford' you mean just that in economic terms, I think.
Therefore, the government are well aware no one would respect a second lockdown, so regardless of any spike, they're not going to call one.
 
Shouldn't you have added the word "FACT" after that as you clearly are an epidemiological expert?

Spanish flu was in a different league from the Wuhan plague, ( I'm sorry to disappoint all the Covid cheerleaders out there) and that abated after its second wave. I don't think any scientist believes that it just died out. It more than likely mutated into something less deadly.

Evolution shows us that any virus that regularly kills its host doesn't last long. It is only the milder strains that have any longevity.




Just like flu then? That is potentially deadly.



And yet even with a vaccine and a recognised treatment flu still kills thousands each year, and in a bad year as many as have supposedly succumbed to this virus.

If flu, even with a vaccine is so deadly shouldn't we have a "lockdown" each winter?

But there is no national panic each winter because, amongst other reasons, it is barely reported.

Even once a vaccine is found this virus will still be "potentially deadly", so what do we do?
Where to start.
Flu is deadly, and each year it kills far more people than Covid thus far.
But the thinking is those who are vaccinated, or have had that strain in the past, or are immune to it, survive.
Covid is new - and there is no vaccine, and for various reasons, it appears far more lethal to certain types especially those with breathing concerns.
As you can read again, 'according to all know data'. So, it depends on what you call a fact?
'It more than likely mutated into something less deadly'. Who's the epidemiologist now? What's your evidence?
 
So many different opinions and so many 'facts' stated.

One thing for certain is that this virus WILL mutate, it is an RNA virus and as such has to replicate itself to survive and spread. The whole process of replication is a mutation in itself as irrespective of the way it does this, no replication is an exact copy.

Now extrapolate these micro mutations over a large population and timescale and it will be significant enough to mutate into something different and the huge likelihood is that this new version will be a 'weaker' version of it's predecessor as a mutation is an imperfection from the previous cell.

I'm no epidemiologist but a bit of basic understanding on these matters does help.

Of course it's a cause for concern and things could/should have been handled differently but I still believe that after the initial, quick frankly needed, lockdown restriction, we are now in danger of letting the measures and controls becoming worse than the virus itself.
 
Well, that’s not strictly true, is it?

We watched it spread around the globe for 3-months, naively believing it wouldn’t affect us.

We could have followed in the footsteps of other countries, but we didn’t, we chose to go another route.

No surprise that they handled theirs better than we did.
Indeed, my partner - a virologist/bioinformatician - called this in January and said we might have to buy in bulk and self-isolate for a period of time, and this was when the virus was primarily restricted to China.

There seems to be a complacent superiority complex in this country and while there is no guarantee that there will be a second wave, it's not something that should be dismissed either.
 
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One of the bigger issues is going to be the movement of people in the immediate vicinity of the ground. The FA Cup final for example they apparently are of the opinion a decent sized crowd in stadium may well be feasible, however, because of kettling fans on and off the tube that is too problematic a scenario. They would need to stagger exiting the stadium section by section which just wouldn't be abided by.
 
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