Echo News 'Fans could be back for start of next season'

[Tangled up in Blue]

Yes I agree, but many people just bandy about the 40000+ figure like those are the deaths on top of what would normally be expected which they are not. Many will be because of the virus and many may also be as a consequence of some of the measures put in place to try to deal with it.

Until all the dust settles in a few years or so and proper research into ALL the figures is completed then no one knows for sure. And perhaps never will.

The excess deaths figure for the UK,the rest of Europe and worldwide is currently about double what is normal for this time of year.That gives you a reasonably accurate figure for deaths directly attributable to Covid-19,I think.So say 20,000+ for the UK (and rising).

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

The excess death rate is the important figure here:-

Covid-19: excess death rates more than twice UK average for 19 English councils

Figures for Great Britain show 16 of 20 councils with highest rates are in London

www.theguardian.com

I have serious issues with the excess death rates, as they are all comparing to the same period of the year, which is like comparing our squad to Liverpool's.

This is similar to a flu epidemic. 2017-2018 there were 50,000 excess winter deaths above the average over the period of about 4 months. That's the sort of thing that this should be compared too.

I must admit, without the lockdown, it probably would of been a lot worse, but the amount of COVID related deaths due to poverty, other illness not getting treated, suicide, domestic violence is going to be huge. Millions of people lives have been ruined and are continuing to be ruined.

Yes, China have closed schools in Beijing, for 137 cases in a week!

 

[Benfleet A1]

No it doesn't.Not necessarily anyway.My wife was talking to our neighbour at number 1 (we're number 3 in a cul del sac, yesterday.He did catch Covid (round about the beginining of the lockdown here back in mid-March and wasn't even aware of it until he and his wife were tested recently.She was negative.he was positive.He's been told to be very careful in the event of a second wave.Apparently he may not have enough antibodies in his system.The Doctors just don't know yet.

So now I have your name, house number and town. One more piece to the jigsaw and the hitman is on his way. ?

 

[southendkid]

People really overestimate how much of an impact people going to the beach or a park would have on a second wave, yes some people are breaking the rules by sitting with a family member/close friend that lives outside the house but in general you probably have the same circle of family and friends, so as long as those people don't have Covid you're fine (and even if they do have the virus the damage is going to be limited to a small number of people that can be contained easily so that it doesn't spread to the wider public), it's going to cause some cases every day but it's not going to cause a spike like we initially saw. The reason public gatherings or things like hairdressers are more of a risk is that it means you're spending extended periods of time with strangers, which means if you have the virus it can spread to different social circles and then if they go to another public gathering afterwards they can then spread it further.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

So now I have your name, house number and town. One more piece to the jigsaw and the hitman is on his way. ?

Ha! The house also has an English name (not just a number but also a letter too) which I won't be revealing to you just yet.Think I'd better keep that street name secret too.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

I reckon it will come down in the next fortnight.

Very soon the Government will have to decide what is worse for the nation in the long term; an illness which is now unfortunately here to stay in one form or another or the total collapse and ruination of a generation's education and a massive section of the economy.

No contest really.

Oh, I don't know. The prospect of death: yours? Mine? Might be worth a reflection or two.

 

[kentblues]

Yes I agree, but many people just bandy about the 40000+ figure like those are the deaths on top of what would normally be expected which they are not. Many will be because of the virus and many may also be as a consequence of some of the measures put in place to try to deal with it.

Until all the dust settles in a few years or so and proper research into ALL the figures is completed then no one knows for sure. And perhaps never will.

The problem is the excess death rate is even worse and that can’t easily be explained way- and the excess death rates compare even worse. No-one takes pleasure from this debacle.

 

[Stuart W]

I thought it was obvious to most people that a high proportion of these excess deaths are due to illnesses such as cancer, where treatments/procedures have been cancelled, diagnostic tests which have been indefinitely postponed, and people dying at home from heart attacks rather than risk self referring to A & E. And that is before the likely deaths caused by mental health problems brought about by the effects of lockdown.
Just because the media attribute all of these excess deaths directly to Covid-19 doesn't mean it's true.

 

[Westcliff DGS]

I thought it was obvious to most people that a high proportion of these excess deaths are due to illnesses such as cancer, where treatments/procedures have been cancelled, diagnostic tests which have been indefinitely postponed, and people dying at home from heart attacks rather than risk self referring to A & E. And that is before the likely deaths caused by mental health problems brought about by the effects of lockdown.
Just because the media attribute all of these excess deaths directly to Covid-19 doesn't mean it's true.

I thought those deaths reported had COVID related on the death certificate, that could of courrse be missed diagnosed or the easy option, but i didnt think the deaths reported to other illnesses.

I say COVID related as i understood it that contributed to the death in addition to something else if that person sadly had it.

 

[Richard Hearn]

Oh, I don't know. The prospect of death: yours? Mine? Might be worth a reflection or two.

I reflect on the prospect of my own death quite often I will have you know. The older I get the prospect of my death from something or other, unfortunately, gets more likely each day.

Over the years I have lost contemporaries to heart problems, cancer of all sorts, meningitis, a car accident and yes, flu too. I have been lucky so far, luckier than many, but I know that one day something is going to get me, maybe the Wuhan plague. And when measured against the destruction of the economy I doubt the government would really put too much value on saving my single life over the wellbeing of the vast majority.

I am not being frivolous, I don't go out of my way to court danger and death but if the alternative is to live quaking in semi isolation for however long I have got left then take me now.

You may have different views regarding how you want to live, I don't know, but you have your views and let me have mine.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

I reflect on the prospect of my own death quite often I will have you know. The older I get the prospect of my death from something or other, unfortunately, gets more likely each day.

Over the years I have lost contemporaries to heart problems, cancer of all sorts, meningitis, a car accident and yes, flu too. I have been lucky so far, luckier than many, but I know that one day something is going to get me, maybe the Wuhan plague. And when measured against the destruction of the economy I doubt the government would really put too much value on saving my single life over the wellbeing of the vast majority.

I am not being frivolous, I don't go out of my way to court danger and death but if the alternative is to live quaking in semi isolation for however long I have got left then take me now.

You may have different views regarding how you want to live, I don't know, but you have your views and let me have mine.

Nail on head - sort of.
They don't value lives over economy, and therefore if it comes to lives versus money, what kind of world do we live in?

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Nail on head - sort of.
They don't value lives over economy, and therefore if it comes to lives versus money, what kind of world do we live in?

A poor economy costs lives too. People being made homeless, losing their jobs, not being able to cope, not being able to eat properly. This increases crime, lowers standards of living, creates more violence. More suicide, less money to spend on healthcare, lower survival rates from diseases.

Its not just a simple, money vs COVID-19 lives.

 

[FiremanBlue]

I don't want to carry on this debate (even though I appear to have started it) but this "40,000+ have died" business really irks me. Yes, 40,000 have died since the outbreak but does anybody seriously believe that had it not been for the plague that all of those 40,000+ people would be happily living their lives today? Of course they wouldn't.

A few 1000 perhaps which is tragic but those 40,000+ are recorded as having died "with" not necessarily "from" the virus. And if you had any knowledge of how death certificates are currently being filled in you would know that "Covid-19" is almost becoming a catch all diagnosis, even if patients have not been actually tested.

And a permanent lockdown? Are you serious? Not that it would ever happen but if it did people would be better off getting the death plague as there would be no life worth living.

In SA a permanent lockdown was in place for 10 weeks. No exercise out side, only essential medicine and shopping. It has worked better than our system, people are now being allowed out and back to work slowly

If you seriously feel 10 weeks indoors is better getting the death plague, then I feel sorry for you and your family

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

A poor economy costs lives too. People being made homeless, losing their jobs, not being able to cope, not being able to eat properly. This increases crime, lowers standards of living, creates more violence. More suicide, less money to spend on healthcare, lower survival rates from diseases.

Its not just a simple, money vs COVID-19 lives.

Can't fault the reasoning, but suggest you might ask the average Joe, sorry, Jorge, in Brazil if he agrees?
No lockdown there, and the economy chugs on.
They are also approaching 50,000 deaths - and that figure is considered dubiously low.
Whereas Brazil's suicide rate is 6.50 per 100,000. Therefore, around 12,500 give or take.
So, 50,000 or 12,500?
As seenyeva said earlier: 'no contest'.

 

[Richard Hearn]

In SA a permanent lockdown was in place for 10 weeks. No exercise out side, only essential medicine and shopping. It has worked better than our system, people are now being allowed out and back to work slowly

If you seriously feel 10 weeks indoors is better getting the death plague, then I feel sorry for you and your family

You said "permanent" in my dictionary that means unending not simply 10 weeks. That is how I answered your point. If you don't wish to be misunderstood please choose your words more carefully.

And don't bother sending me and my family your sympathies we don't want or value them, but you might spare a thought for my 91 year old mother-in-law who having gone into this in fine health is now, after 13 weeks in imposed isolation at home, suffering from serious mental health problems.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Can't fault the reasoning, but suggest you might ask the average Joe, sorry, Jorge, in Brazil if he agrees?
No lockdown there, and the economy chugs on.
They are also approaching 50,000 deaths - and that figure is considered dubiously low.
Whereas Brazil's suicide rate is 6.50 per 100,000. Therefore, around 12,500 give or take.
So, 50,000 or 12,500?
As seenyeva said earlier: 'no contest'.

I never said to have no lockdown at all, although as well as pointing at Brazil (which is run by a complete tool), you could also point to Sweden that had no lockdown either, and has coped quite well. Without a lockdown I am sure those 40,000 deaths would of been higher, although we will never know.

The economy here has taken an enormous hit that is going to take decades to recover from already. Things have to start getting back to normal, otherwise its putting the lives of future generations even more at risk.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

I never said to have no lockdown at all, although as well as pointing at Brazil (which is run by a complete tool), you could also point to Sweden that had no lockdown either, and has coped quite well. Without a lockdown I am sure those 40,000 deaths would of been higher, although we will never know.

The economy here has taken an enormous hit that is going to take decades to recover from already. Things have to start getting back to normal, otherwise its putting the lives of future generations even more at risk.

Again: a little homework, please.
According to Science. com: "In late May, Sweden's overall COVID-19 mortality rate was estimated at 39.57 deaths per 100,000 residents; at the same time, the U.S. mortality rate was estimated at 30.02 deaths per 100,000 residents.'
So, coping maybe not so well?
Getting back to normal isn't a matter of will: it's a matter of ensuring the infection rate continues to fall.
You and I can want all we want, but the shattered economy isn't going to revive under a second spike.

 

[fbm]

I don't think we can have a cure that's worse than the disease, which is fast what this is becoming.

I'm not going to bash the government about this because no-one knew what was coming. We did what we did for good reasons at the time.

So - my own thoughts - I think that when all is said and done and we look back, it will be shown that what we have just had will have been the "second wave" and that the virus was evident here before Christmas.

Look at the various spikes around the country; it is just springing up in areas it hasn't yet been to. London was the epicentre at one point, and now has the lowest (or one of the lowest) rates in the country.

As for the tests - well, they are now testing many more people, so the positive tests figure will naturally be up. The figure we need is the number of tests of people currently in hospital, which would be comparable to the number of tests previously taken (because they were only testing people in hospital).

I think the virus will mutate to something that is no worse than regular flu. We will have to live with that and with the same amount of fear that normal flu gives us, which I'm sure is not very much. Certainly not enough to not hug loved ones and shut down an economy.

It's a very tricky balancing act. It will be interesting to see how the countries who didn't impose lockdown recover as opposed to those who did, and how their suicide rates are at that time because this is going to have an economic effect for quite a while.

 

[Chris Powell's mate]

I don't think we can have a cure that's worse than the disease, which is fast what this is becoming.

I'm not going to bash the government about this because no-one knew what was coming. We did what we did for good reasons at the time.

So - my own thoughts - I think that when all is said and done and we look back, it will be shown that what we have just had will have been the "second wave" and that the virus was evident here before Christmas.

Look at the various spikes around the country; it is just springing up in areas it hasn't yet been to. London was the epicentre at one point, and now has the lowest (or one of the lowest) rates in the country.

As for the tests - well, they are now testing many more people, so the positive tests figure will naturally be up. The figure we need is the number of tests of people currently in hospital, which would be comparable to the number of tests previously taken (because they were only testing people in hospital).

I think the virus will mutate to something that is no worse than regular flu. We will have to live with that and with the same amount of fear that normal flu gives us, which I'm sure is not very much. Certainly not enough to not hug loved ones and shut down an economy.

It's a very tricky balancing act. It will be interesting to see how the countries who didn't impose lockdown recover as opposed to those who did, and how their suicide rates are at that time because this is going to have an economic effect for quite a while.

Those last two paragraphs? Hmmm...
All countries imposed some sort of lockdown, either 'localised' or national, like ours.
And again, you have to compare like with like in terms of economic strength - not an easy ask.
Above, I compared the near 50,000 deaths in Brazil from Covid to the country's approximate 12,500 suicides from the latest figures.
The virus will not mutate, according to all known data: it will just become a virus that's treatable when a vaccine is found.
Until then, it's potentially deadly.
There are vaccines for various types of flu - note the jab each winter - but you have to ask why so many countries DID close down the economy? I think you'll discover the fear was/is a bit more than 'not very much'.

 

[fbm]

Those last two paragraphs? Hmmm...
All countries imposed some sort of lockdown, either 'localised' or national, like ours.
And again, you have to compare like with like in terms of economic strength - not an easy ask.
Above, I compared the near 50,000 deaths in Brazil from Covid to the country's approximate 12,500 suicides from the latest figures.
The virus will not mutate, according to all known data: it will just become a virus that's treatable when a vaccine is found.
Until then, it's potentially deadly.
There are vaccines for various types of flu - note the jab each winter - but you have to ask why so many countries DID close down the economy? I think you'll discover the fear was/is a bit more than 'not very much'.

Oh, listen, I totally understand why the world entered Pandemic mode... I also think that we are where we are BECAUSE we locked down and if we hadn't it would have been far, far worse.

But the VE days parties, the general easing of regulations, the blatant disregard of social distancing by many... that should have had an effect by now and it hasn't. Meaning that it probably won't.

It might spike up again in October time when we all start retreating indoors again... but I honestly don't think the world can afford to lockdown again.