Fixture Difficulty - Analysis

Magnum PI · Sep 7, 2015

I have always had it in my head that over a course of the season some teams might end up getting more difficult or easy fixtures depending on when they play certain teams. I decided this season I would keep my eye on this with some ongoing analysis of League 1.

Nothing amazingly scientific but all based on the positions of the opposition when each team plays them (not including week 1 where all teams were equal). I have attached my table which shows the team and the rank of difficulty in the first column (1 = hardest set of fixtures, 24 = easiest set of fixtures) and the average league position of opposition in the second column (the lower the average, the tougher the fixture... you would assume).
Obviously its all a bit early in the season but you might expect this to tell you something (or not... ) as the season progresses.

So far Southend have been playing on average mid table teams (12th average), and have a rank of 14th toughest fixtures so far. We do though have a run of teams coming up who are lower down the table than higher which will impact this figure going forward

Rochdale could be a good bet for promotion - they sit in top 6 and have had the toughest run of fixtures so far - all teams played have been in the top 10. Blackpool might be struggling but they have also had a horrible run of fixtures. Scunthorpe could be early season contenders to go down. They are 19th in the league and have played teams 16th, 23rd, 17th, 23rd and 24th already! Mind you they play Coventry this weekend. The Gills position could be false. They are top but have had the 2nd easiest fixtures so far.

I will post weekly analysis on here for those interested in seeing how this pans out over a season.

RHB · Sep 7, 2015

So Mr Magnum, are we actually looking at League 1 or League 2?

Magnum PI · Sep 7, 2015

Rootshallbloke said:
So Mr Magnum, are we actually looking at League 1 or League 2?

I still can't believe we went up!

Somerset Ex-TTB · Sep 7, 2015

Interesting, but at this stage of the season, the table can change so much. It might be better using the table as it is now, to set the averages for the first 6 games.

Oh and we are in League One now :winking:

londonblue · Sep 7, 2015

Magnum PI said:
I have always had it in my head that over a course of the season some teams might end up getting more difficult or easy fixtures depending on when they play certain teams. I decided this season I would keep my eye on this with some ongoing analysis of League 2.

Nothing amazingly scientific but all based on the positions of the opposition when each team plays them (not including week 1 where all teams were equal). I have attached my table which shows the team and the rank of difficulty in the first column (1 = hardest set of fixtures, 24 = easiest set of fixtures) and the average league position of opposition in the second column (the lower the average, the tougher the fixture... you would assume).
Obviously its all a bit early in the season but you might expect this to tell you something (or not... ) as the season progresses.

So far Southend have been playing on average mid table teams (12th average), and have a rank of 14th toughest fixtures so far. We do though have a run of teams coming up who are lower down the table than higher which will impact this figure going forward

Rochdale could be a good bet for promotion - they sit in top 6 and have had the toughest run of fixtures so far - all teams played have been in the top 10. Blackpool might be struggling but they have also had a horrible run of fixtures. Scunthorpe could be early season contenders to go down. They are 19th in the league and have played teams 16th, 23rd, 17th, 23rd and 24th already! Mind you they play Coventry this weekend. The Gills position could be false. They are top but have had the 2nd easiest fixtures so far.

I will post weekly analysis on here for those interested in seeing how this pans out over a season.

I like the idea of what you are trying to do, but it does have its limitations, which (based on you saying it's nothing scientific) I think you readily accept.

I can see two main issues. Firstly, at this time of the season one win can move you a huge way up the table. For example, if we play Col Ewe (who based on last season are lucky to be in this division) after they have just won a game, then we will likely be playing a team ahead of us. But the likelihood is that they are in a false position. I don't know how you can stop early season skewing the results, but it might be better to add more weight to games later on in the season.

The other issue is that it doesn't take form into account. You nearly always get a team near the bottom of the table that go on a fantastic run near the end of the season and save themselves from relegation. Just looking at their position in the table doesn't take this into account. Again, I'm not a mathematician and don't know how to account for this...