Form of the 6 Promotion contenders (Part 2)

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I did one of these about 6 or 7 games ago, so thought it was time to update it.

SWINDON

Form over the last 10 games is amazing, going back to their 4-1 win over us. 27 points, 9 wins and 1 defeat (coming against Oxford 3 games ago). 5 of their last 6 games have been at home, and it appears that even the fixture backlog caused by their FA Cup and JPT runs is not going to stop them.

Next fixtures coming up are Crewe (A), Torquay (H), Bristol Rovers (H) and then Barnet and Morecombe (A), so I can't really see them dropping loads of points. I can see them being promoted with 5 or 6 games left to be honest.

TORQUAY

They have moved up to 2nd tonight and are now 2 points above us. Recent form is 22 points from 10 games, unbeaten in 4 since their little dip of 2 defeats. A couple of tough looking games coming up with Burton (A), Swindon (A), Port Vale (H), Barnet (A) and Accrington (H), but on the whole, not too bad a run of games.

They have played 21 league games since their 4-1 hammering at Roots Hall and have won 16 of them (2 draws and 3 defeats). 12 of those 16 wins have been by 1 goal, so you could say they are riding their luck, and how long can their run continue?

SHREWSBURY

20 points from their last 10 games, and their 2 defeats have been against the top 2 in Torquay and Swindon. Still unbeaten at home, and their away form has picked up a bit too.

Games coming up are Plymouth (A), Cheltenham (H), Morecombe (A), Port Vale and Aldershot (H), so their home form should see them OK over the course of the next 5 games, with only Cheltenham being a real big test.

I think these are going to be the top 3 at the end looking at recent form, and upcoming fixtures.

SOUTHEND

As we know recent form has been patchy (not rubbish), picking up 12 points from 10 games. 4 points dropped against Plymouth and Accrington biting us on the bum big time.

Upcoming fixtures are Hereford (A), Aldershot (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Cheltenham (H) and Bradford (A)

Some winnable away games, but more difficult home games, but a return of 9 or 10 points will keep us in the hunt.

CHELTENHAM

Cheltenham's form has been as bad as our picking up 12 points from 10 games, but they are on recent worse form than us as they have no win in 3.

Tough games coming up (if you count a date at Roots Hall as tough), Gillingham (H), Shrewsbury (A), Oxford (H), Southend (A) and Barnet (H)

Their run in after that looks a little easier, but they could be too far off the pace if their current form continues against other top sides.

CRAWLEY

The team in the worst form of all the top 6 and even with the games in hand, seem to be falling like a stone. It seems that battering teams and not winning is the way you get promotion.

Recent form in the last 10 games is 6 draws, 3 defeats and only 1 win (9 points) With more games to play than anybody else, this also makes it even harder as they rarely will get a Tuesday off.

Upcoming fixtures are Port Vale (H), Gillingham (A), Rotherham (H) and Bradford and Burton both away. So nothing really scary, but not really easy either. Their fixtures in April do look much easier though, so even if they are a bit behind they could come with a late surge. (4 games at home and Barnet and Daggers away!)

Looking at all that I am now less confident than I was before I started writing it. I still think there are many twists and turns and recent form as we know can change overnight, and there will be a lot of weird and wacky results.

 

[blue79]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Thanks for that. Remind me to mention that your next post is pointless.

 

[southendkid]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

Not nessesarily pointless, puts things into perspective when people moan that we are going to not even make the play offs when you see Cheltenham are doing as badly as us and Crawley are doing even worse. Plus looking at the form table from a month or so ago I could tell Crawley were going to drop like a stone, so it's not like form has absolutely no bearing on the future.

 

[blue79]

Not pointless maybe that is harsh. It is well thought out and your undoubtedly 100% right. But what does it matter now? Those games gone before us have gone now. Will looking at this thread make us predict accurate results in the remainder of the season? Think not.

 

[Beefy]

Of course it's not pointless. It's far less pointless than another one of your threads about who might leave us or what the leaves in our tea are telling us might happen to one of our players.

Thanks for the effort, E-TTB.

 

[blue79]

I did praise the effort. Should have said so first time round. Statistics correct and put across well. but is it relevant to the future? its only relevant to whats past us by.

 

[blue79]

Beefy with you having read what the treasurer has put forward ( again beautifully crafted) can you please tell me what our results will be in the run-in?

 

[blue79]

As mentioned I got it wrong on Paul Benson but then I don't claim to get everything spot on. Other than that Have I confirmed anyone was moving on, No. Have I confirmed anyone is signing on. No. What I did do was drum threads up in an attempt to read members opinions on the subject. Bit different to confirming anything isn't beefy.

 

[southchurch]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

I thought it was an interesting thread and not as pointless as some of these gems you have posted.

'pessimistic just that our lull seems to have gone on a long time. Admittedly at least two of our three games have been better but the fact is we're not winning consistently... '


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'Shrimpboy has a point. I've always said focus on what YOU/WE do and make sure WE get to where we want to be. And to take one match at a time. For me that's all one can do..'


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'Maybe 3 unbeaten but one win in six. Not moaning just a fact.'



Now thats pointless.​

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[bigmolt]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

IMO a very good thread. Very well done for all the hard work. :clap:
Ladbrokes must love you visiting their shops Blue79.

 

[r16sby]

Not pointless at all. Teams get into rhythms and recent results reflect this. Swindon are in one, Torquay just about the same and Crawley have fallen into a negative rhythm. So we would expect the same from the same. There will always be a late surge from somewhere or a late non-surge, but trends are good for an idea of how it might go. The rest of us are in a 4 points out of 9 stutter. And just to link to another thread, it is sometimes simply down to one thing, the issues with Bilel may have been our stuttering point in the same way that Di Canio's antics on the sidelines might have been Swindon's trigger upwards. A few years back, in is playing days, he was the same trigger that saved West Ham from the drop so maybe characters like this are sometimes that vital link that makes it all a click into place.

 

[OldBlueLady]

It's always good to look at things in context and form definitely has a bearing, looks like 3 from 4...hope we aren't the ones to miss out. Can Swindon really keep their run going? I mean, they have a crap defence don't they? :winking:

 

[canveyshrimper]

Beefy with you having read what the treasurer has put forward ( again beautifully crafted) can you please tell me what our results will be in the run-in?

I'm sorry this cuts both ways, how different is you poo-pooing speculation on forthcoming results, when you've assured us (speculation) that one of Grant, Ferdinand or Hall would be sold in (last) summer or in the January window?

 

[r16sby]

The gap that Swindon have opened up will take a few games to desolve, unless they capitulate and we, or anyone else, puts a '5 wins out of 6' run together and on current form nobody is looking likely. So, on current form, it's 2 from 4 for the auto's.

 

[Clinton Baptiste]

It could all change. I wouldnt back against ourselves, Crawley and Cheltenham all finding a bit of form. I certainly think all 3 of those teams have better squads overall than Shrews and Torquay. Shrews must surely come unstuck at home at some point also.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

If we continue our recent patchy form and accrue another 12 points from the last ten games, it would see us finish with 76 points. Only once in the last seven years of League Two (Wycombe 2007/8 ...78points) would that see us fail to make the play-offs. In fact the average number of points required for a play-off place is about 70...........so, failing a monumental collapse, we are virtually certain of being in the top seven.
In the last seven seasons the third place (automatic promotion) have gained ......80 82 78 88 85 81 80 points respectively ....that works out an average of 82 points. Interestingly, if you look at the number of points required to finish over the eighth placed side, it works out considerably less 80 74 78 83 85 73 79..........that's an average of about 80 points. I fear that this season may be quite competitive, so that third place may demand us getting about 84 points.
Ironically, the often talked of mantra from PS has been an average of two points a game, thus two points from each our last ten would give us a total of.........................84 points!!! It could, as many have suggested, go right down to the wire, however I think that by Super Tuesday (20th March) we should at least have an idea if we will still be in the mix. Anything less than 4 points from Hereford and Aldershot and I think we should be preparing for the play-offs.
Incidently, Shrewsbury have made the play-offs in three out of the last seven years of League Two and...................they are still there!

 

[WESTY_SUFC]

For me a pointless thread. the past is the past . Who knows what'll happen in the run-in . take the games one by one and see what happens. You might as well believe in the woman with the crystal ball at the fare. The past form doesn't necessarily dictate whats going to happen in the near future. each game is on a different day etc.

I think your post is far more pointless. The original post excellently explains how the table has changed in the last 10 games. Yours adds nothing.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Whilst shaving, I reflected on my statement that by Tuesday 20th, we should have a better idea about our automatic aspirations. Just to show you how quickly our automatic hopes could evaporate, consider the possibility that we manage two draws against Hereford and Aldershot................not totally unrealistic in our present form. That eventuality would mean that in the last eight matches, we would have to win SIX in order to arrive at the magic 84 points.......how many of us would fancy our chances of doing that?

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

What did strike me, is that difference in form over the last 10 games of Swindon/Torquay/Shrewsbury compared to us/Cheltenham and Crawley.

I didn't realise that Shrewsbury were in such good form.

As said though, this can change overnight.