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yogi bear up the cagire

Life President⭐
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St Gaudens France
The job of writing a long article to explain the race to l'elysée up to now had prevented me from starting a thread. Happily, this article from the Independent does most of it for me. I would agree with the majority of what is written (apart from liking Le Pen to Clinton!)......thank God we have two rounds of voting in the French Presidential election! We all expected a press conference from Fillon on Monday, would announce his withdrawal from the race. Far from it! in a great piece of, almost religious theatre, he confessed his sins to the electorate and said sorry (for allegedly paying large sume of public money to his family for work that was never done), now absolved of his sins, he sees nothing wrong in continuing his campaign for President. We shall see what the electorate say (in the next round of opinion polls.
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Whilst I agree with his theory of a 'ceiling' to Le Pen's support, I would want the muddy waters of both the left and right of French politics to be clearer, before being totally confident that she will not end up President.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ld-trump-populism-macron-fillon-a7565156.html
 

yogi bear up the cagire

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St Gaudens France
Whilst MacShane points out the unfortunate look alike nazi salute she is making, something far more shocking took place last month in Koblenz. Following months and years of trying to sanatise the extremism of her party, making it appear almost mainstream, I was amazed to see her appearing at this rally of far right racists and fascists.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-gathering-of-eu-far-right-leaders-in-koblenz

I'm sure it will be used against her in the campaign, to show a leopard doesn't change its spots and under all the attempted respectable façade, the FN remains a nasty party.
 

callan

Striker
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
3,603
Another thoughtful article from the Guardian, concerning the French Presidential Election, showing how things could dramatically change since our Brexit decision last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/09/emmanuel-macron-france-reform-eu-britain

Indeed as the Headline points out, the EU needs saving, reforming etc albeit I'm sure that there are many on here that won't buy into this 'thoughtful' point and even less so that Macron is the man to do it.

I don't know much about Macron but he has been described by French pals of mine as someone who is likely to preserve the status quo rather than bring about meaningful change in France, which they believe Le Pen is capable of although at heavy price.
 

Massimo Giovanni

Old Timer⭐
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Thanks Yogi, an interesting read. politics everywhere seems to be full of seemingly un-electable persons and electoral systems that take some understanding.
Macrone or Le Pen? vote for "least disliked"?, and polls suggest Macrone to be clear front runner.
All this has shades of recent voting patterns across the waters and at home.
 

Benfleet A1

Hector Of The House
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Still 2+ months before the first round. And I thought we dragged it out in this country. Staying on subject, can I recconment the very excellent Spin, a french series about a fictional presidential election. Really good series and well worth hunting down. Might still be lurking on Channel 4 catch up f you're lucky.
 

yogi bear up the cagire

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Thanks for your contributions, I feared I had entered into a monologue! :smile:
Yes, Macron would be a safe pair of hands but also someone who believes changes are absolutely necessary both for the euro and the EU. If we ignore the fact of how racist the FN are just under the surface in comparison to their presentation, the policies they are forwarding (leaving the euro, leaving the EU, protectionism) must be a cause for real concern. Interestingly, there are divisions opening between the smooth image, in order to attract a wider following, being presented by Marine Le Pen and the more traditional, hard-line nationalistic, catholic views being espoused the by young (dangerous?) Marie marechal Le Pen in the south-east of France. Whilst Le Pen may hold the lead following the First Round, I (pray!) can't see her gathering enough support to win the Second Round................yet as someone pointed out, there's a long way to go!
It's true that many are obliged to vote against somone rather than someone they really want. Macron was a socialist minister but now claims to be neither right nor left. :unsure: I suppose the nearest comparison would be someone rather like Blair (don't know whether that's a good recommendation!..........hopefully there won't be another Iraq war to support!!!) Le Pen will fear facing Macron more than Fillon in the second-round. The left is far more likely to come out and support Macron than Fillon in the final vote. Fillon, the traditional right-wing (extreme right 'Thatcherite') candidate is in all sorts of trouble with an on going scandal, hanging on by his fingertips...........but fading fast in the polls. Strangely, today he stated the strange belief that his support, if he's not in the second-round, would go to Le Pen! I've never heard of this series 'Spin'........I'll look it up. I'm afraid the Election here has been much of the main news since well before Chrismas!
The deeply worrying thing at the moment is the seeming manipulation of the election process with information leaks and misinformation. We've seen it in the UK referendum and the American election. The 'truth' is out there but you don't know who's spinning it and for what purpose. Wikileaks (and the Russians) apparently have info on Le Pen and Macron, which they may release... is this access to information on the net in danger of completely undermining the democratic election process???
 

Massimo Giovanni

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I have had some interesting conversations with some French friends who are serving Gendarme officers (one is a Colonel and 2 Majors); they all think the three candidates are poor and that none are to be trusted with the future of France. All are apathetic towards the EU and Frau Merkal. None would say who they would vote for.
Is it possible that these elections may have a very small % turn out?
 

Tangled up in Blue

Certified Senior Citizen⭐
Joined
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31,787
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Sant Cugat del Vallès
I have had some interesting conversations with some French friends who are serving Gendarme officers (one is a Colonel and 2 Majors); they all think the three candidates are poor and that none are to be trusted with the future of France. All are apathetic towards the EU and Frau Merkal. None would say who they would vote for.
Is it possible that these elections may have a very small % turn out?

My wife (and our two daughters) intend to vote (in the second round at least).That should push the turnout figures up a bit.:winking:
 

yogi bear up the cagire

Life President⭐
Joined
May 8, 2008
Messages
15,396
Location
St Gaudens France
I have had some interesting conversations with some French friends who are serving Gendarme officers (one is a Colonel and 2 Majors); they all think the three candidates are poor and that none are to be trusted with the future of France. All are apathetic towards the EU and Frau Merkal. None would say who they would vote for.
Is it possible that these elections may have a very small % turn out?


We don't talk here about how many people vote in the Presidential Election but rather, how many abstain. Here is a table for past presidential elctions and as you will see the turnout is pretty impressive. In 2012 there was a turnout of around 80% in both rounds. I really don't think it will be that much lower, even allowing for the quality of the candidates.


Article détaillé : Élection présidentielle en France.

AnnéeDateAbstention
201222 avril (premier tour)20,52 %
6 mai (second tour)19,66 %
200722 avril (premier tour)16,22 %
6 mai (second tour)16,03 %
200221 avril (premier tour)28,4 %
5 mai (second tour)20,3 %
199523 avril (premier tour)21,6 %
7 mai (second tour)20,3 %
198824 avril (premier tour)18,6 %
8 mai (second tour)15,9 %
198124 avril (premier tour)18,9 %
10 mai (second tour)14,1 %
19745 mai (premier tour)15,8 %
19 mai (second tour)12,7 %
19691[SUP]er[/SUP] juin (premier tour)22,4 %
15 juin (second tour)31,1 %
19655 décembre (premier tour)15,2 %
19 décembre (second tour)15,7 %
[h=3]However, when it comes to the Législatives the situation changes quite dramatically and there is increasingly less interest in turning out to elect your own députée (MP), as can be seen from the table below.[/h]
[h=3]Élections législatives[/h]Article détaillé : Élections législatives en France.
AnnéeDateAbstention
201210 juin (premier tour)42,78 %[SUP]9[/SUP]
17 juin (second tour)44,59 %[SUP]9[/SUP]
200710 juin (premier tour)39,6 %
17 juin (second tour)40,0 %
20029 juin (premier tour)35,6 %
16 juin (second tour)39,7 %
199725 mai (premier tour)32 %
1[SUP]er[/SUP] juin (second tour)28,9 %
199321 mars (premier tour)30,8 %
28 mars (second tour)32,4 %
19885 juin (premier tour)34,3 %
12 juin (second tour)30,1 %
198616 mars21,5 %
Pas de second tour : scrutin à la proportionnelle
198114 juin (premier tour)29,1 %
21 juin (second tour)24,9 %
197812 mars (premier tour)16,8 %
19 mars (second tour)15,1 %
19734 mars (premier tour)18,7 %
11 mars (second tour)18,2 %
196823 juin (premier tour)20 %
30 juin (second tour)22,2 %
19675 mars (premier tour)18,9 %
12 mars (second tour)20,3 %
196218 novembre (premier tour)31,3 %
25 novembre (second tour)27,9 %
195823 novembre (premier tour)22,8 %
30 novembre (second tour)25,2 %
[h=3][/h]There are a couple of interesting things here. Firstly, it may prove a problem for either Le Pen or especially Macron to get a majorité in the assemblée national (parliament). Le Pen, although voting well and leading in a number of seats in the 2015 régional elections, ended up winning nothing. The FN do however have areas where they are likely to have MP's elected (north-west, Calais etc; Mediterranean coast, Alsace). Macron's situation is more critical and with no established party, he has appealed for people to apply on line to become candidates! If elected President he must hope to attract converts from other party's as well as those so far non-aligned. The risk for both of those candidates is that they could end up Presidents withouth having a majority in parliament, thus leading to the awkward situation of 'co-habitation' Really interesting times!:smile:
 

Benfleet A1

Hector Of The House
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
Messages
8,377
Location
Slade Prison
I certainly can't vote in French elections.

My wife can, as she's technically a French resident (in Cebazan),while our two (adult) daughters can vote at the French consulate here in Barna.

Sorry I mis-read what you said in the first place. I really must wear my glasses more often.
 

Gt Yarmouth Shrimper

President⭐
Joined
Aug 19, 2008
Messages
3,979
Very impressive turn outs even for the MP's Yogi, I presume the French are more aware of the importance of voting?
 
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