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FWIW,I'm beginning to think Macron might actually make it through to the second round rather than Fillon.

Certainly J.will be voting for him (via proxy) and I imagine our two daughters will too.I'd still vote for Mélenchon (if I could).

Hamon clearly won't make it through to the second round.

Hardly suprising when you consider the problems that social democratic parties are experiencing in the rest of Europe,including the UK.:winking:

With one socialist candidate I could understand the logic of voting for them. If both insist staying in the race, neither Mélenchon nor Hamon have a cat in hell's chance of reaching the second round. Every vote that doesn't go to Macron will aid a second-round between Le Pen and Fillon, with the best chance of the former winning.
I'm not totally convinced about Macron and fear possible problems ahead with the election of l'assemblée nationale. However, I'm petrified about the possibility of Fillon winning and totally petrified about the chance of Le Pen being elected!
Yes, it is difficult for the centre and centre left at the moment........though Germany may buck the trend. I'm afraid the socialist parties in both France and England bear quite a bit of responsibility for their present situation.
 
With one socialist candidate I could understand the logic of voting for them. If both insist staying in the race, neither Mélenchon nor Hamon have a cat in hell's chance of reaching the second round. Every vote that doesn't go to Macron will aid a second-round between Le Pen and Fillon, with the best chance of the former winning.
I'm not totally convinced about Macron
and fear possible problems ahead with the election of l'assemblée nationale. However, I'm petrified about the possibility of Fillon winning and totally petrified about the chance of Le Pen being elected!
Yes, it is difficult for the centre and centre left at the moment........though Germany may buck the trend. I'm afraid the socialist parties in both France and England bear quite a bit of responsibility for their present situation.


Don't think anyone is but he's still the man most likely to get through to the second round,IMO.
 
Sorry for some misleading information. I took my wife's (after all she's french!) info concerning the deadline for declaring candidature at face value, without checking it out. It now seems this is mid-March rather than Saturday...........so plenty of time for Mélenchon and Hamon to construct a united front..............and of course, for Fillon to withdraw! :winking:
 
Sorry for some misleading information. I took my wife's (after all she's french!) info concerning the deadline for declaring candidature at face value, without checking it out. It now seems this is mid-March rather than Saturday...........so plenty of time for Mélenchon and Hamon to construct a united front..............and of course, for Fillon to withdraw! :winking:

Think you'll find the only "united front" in the French election will be that between Macron and François Bayrou.

Mélechon certainly won't withdraw but (like you) I'd be happy if Fillon did.
 
Think you'll find the only "united front" in the French election will be that between Macron and François Bayrou.

Mélechon certainly won't withdraw but (like you) I'd be happy if Fillon did.

Given his wish to destroy the present socialist party, I think you're probably right about Mélenchon. This of course means that the left is f****d for May. As for Fillon, I'm really not sure I wish him to withdraw (sure as hell, I don't won't him elected!.....and I don't think he will be), it would depend on who replaced him. Given the mood of les républicains (french tories) they would probably choose someone equally to the right, thus giving Macron less chance of getting to the second round.
By the way there is an article in the Independent on line by Satyajit Das,

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...n-french-elections-who-will-win-a7600206.html

which claims we could underestimate the risk of the left turning out to vote for Le Pen in the second-round, them seeing Le Pen closer to their economic views than either Macron or Fillon. I have my doubts that they would do it in sufficient numbers but there again, in the present volatile political climate, would you put your house on it????
 
Given his wish to destroy the present socialist party, I think you're probably right about Mélenchon. This of course means that the left is f****d for May. As for Fillon, I'm really not sure I wish him to withdraw (sure as hell, I don't won't him elected!.....and I don't think he will be), it would depend on who replaced him. Given the mood of les républicains (french tories) they would probably choose someone equally to the right, thus giving Macron less chance of getting to the second round.
By the way there is an article in the Independent on line by Satyajit Das,

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...n-french-elections-who-will-win-a7600206.html

which claims we could underestimate the risk of the left turning out to vote for Le Pen in the second-round, them seeing Le Pen closer to their economic views than either Macron or Fillon. I have my doubts that they would do it in sufficient numbers but there again, in the present volatile political climate, would you put your house on it????

Given the French Socialists' recent record in office, I think they've done a pretty good job of ****ing up the left's chances,without needing Mélechon's help.

Interesting article.I've been saying for some time that MLP's economic policies are quite left-wing.She's a populist after all.

Still don't think there's any chance at all of her winning in the second round.I certainly wouldn't put the house on it but I'm quite happy to risk a tenner.Interested? :winking:
 
Given the French Socialists' recent record in office, I think they've done a pretty good job of ****ing up the left's chances,without needing Mélechon's help.

Interesting article.I've been saying for some time that MLP's economic policies are quite left-wing.She's a populist after all.

Still don't think there's any chance at all of her winning in the second round. I certainly wouldn't put the house on it but I'm still quite happy to risk a tenner. Interested? :winking:

Me betting on Le Pen to win the second-round? I don't think so Barna! :smile: Try Donald J Trump, mrsblue or Rigsby.....they may be prepared to take you on!
 

A simple straightforward guide to a totally fascinating Presidential Election........mind you it's not to say, by the time it was published, it could be completely out of date! Such is the fluidity and unpredictability of this campaign. It's written mainly from the point of view of Fillon's problems which, of course, is what most people are talking about at the moment. It correctly (IMHO) sees through the sanitised façade of Le Pen's FN and whilst it warns of the danger of a FN victory it is also careful and wise not to make any predictions.
The latest opinion poll (Friday) makes an interesting comparison between voting intentions if Fillon stayed as a candidate and if he was replaced by Juppé. These findings (if opinion polls can be believed) fly in the face of the last sentence of the article.

http://www.sudouest.fr/2017/03/03/s...r-tour-s-il-remplacait-fillon-3245515-710.php

So, if Fillon stays in the race, it shows a second-round face-off between Macron and Le Pen. Yet, if Fillon drops out and is replaced by Juppé (a politician, as the article notes, not whiter than white), some very curious things happen. There would be a squeeze on all the other parties, the socialists curiously and particularly, drop 5%. The prediction would then be, that we would end up with a second-round between Macron and Juppé, with Le Pen eliminated.
Even if I were a betting man, I think I'd keep my money firmly in my pocket for the moment! :smile:
 
FWIW,I spoke to our younger daughter about the French elections.

She'll be voting for Mélechon in the first round and "blanc" in the second.

Obviously a chip off the old block.:smile:
 
FWIW,I spoke to our younger daughter about the French elections.

She'll be voting for Mélechon in the first round and "blanc" in the second.

Obviously a chip off the old block.:smile:

WHAT! You mean there is someone else than just Mélenchon himself who loves him? :winking: I can understand where you and your daughter are coming from, even if I disagree and worry for that kind of reasoning in this election. I just fear we live in such unstable and dramatic times, the luxury of voting in the traditional ways..........with heart and conviction, could well end up with a situation many of us will deeply regret.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/08/french-presidential-elections-marine-le-pen

Interesting article on the "risk of President MLP",which would seem to support your POV Yogi.

Yes Barna, that's about the state of play. Fillon drifting more towards Le Pen whilst also slipping down the in the poll ratings (I didn't leave Thatcherite Britain to have a nasty french male version with a cato-fasco twist! :winking: ). As you indicated earlier, the article identifies similarities between the programmes of the FN and the extreme-left.
The left and the right have polarised at their extremes...........where does yor average democrat go???......apart from with Macron????? I'm just praying there will be no serious act of terrorism leading up to the election. Meanwhilst the extreme right Le Pen/Fillon (and the Russians) must be working overtime to try and find some dirt on Macron.
The article is right in that it's not only the future of France but that of Europe which is at stake. The little bit of comfort is that, it is not likely to be a small turnout which will let Le Pen in. As I've posted earlier, unlike the parliamentary election the presidential turn out is traditionally very high (around 80%).
Marie-Ge believes Macron will be elected in the first round (sadly, not something I'd agree with). Yet, if it were he or Le Pen elected they may have similar problems in forming a government with the legislative elections, IIRC, about a month later. The present set up of MP's ' (députées) is between the traditional left and right, neither which are likely to have a representative President............that election (with a possibly much lower turn out), will certainly be one to watch.
 
Yes Barna, that's about the state of play. Fillon drifting more towards Le Pen whilst also slipping down the in the poll ratings (I didn't leave Thatcherite Britain to have a nasty french male version with a cato-fasco twist! :winking: ). As you indicated earlier, the article identifies similarities between the programmes of the FN and the extreme-left.
The left and the right have polarised at their extremes...........where does yor average democrat go???......apart from with Macron????? I'm just praying there will be no serious act of terrorism leading up to the election. Meanwhilst the extreme right Le Pen/Fillon (and the Russians) must be working overtime to try and find some dirt on Macron.
The article is right in that it's not only the future of France but that of Europe which is at stake. The little bit of comfort is that, it is not likely to be a small turnout which will let Le Pen in. As I've posted earlier, unlike the parliamentary election the presidential turn out is traditionally very high (around 80%).
Marie-Ge believes Macron will be elected in the first round (sadly, not something I'd agree with). Yet, if it were he or Le Pen elected they may have similar problems in forming a government with the legislative elections, IIRC, about a month later. The present set up of MP's ' (députées) is between the traditional left and right, neither which are likely to have a representative President............that election (with a possibly much lower turn out), will certainly be one to watch.

I certainly don't think Macron will get 50% of the vote, which is what he'd need to win in the first round, though I still see him as the man most likely to beat MLP in the second round.
 
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