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rigsby

Life President⭐
Joined
Oct 12, 2014
Messages
16,980
You may well be surprised how much the first goal has influenced our results this season. We have now ended the bizarre run of not scoring in the second half but did you know but we have not gained single point away from home if the opposition has scored first.....11 games, 9 of which we didn't score at all. We did score first but lost at Donny and Scunthorpe.

The 5 games we won we had scored first. We also scored first in our 3 score draws (we were 2-1 down at Gills at one stage) and we had 2 0-0's to make it 5 wins and 5 draws away from home. So the only point we salvaged from behind was at Gillingham. but we did score the first goal.

We also lost all 3 cup games away when they scored first.

Our record at home doesn't get any better. A quick check on stats I can only remember beating Scunthorpe after we went 1-0 down and a draw with Northampton after being 2-0 down. In the 4 games we lost the oppo scored first. Again our 3 score draws we had score first with 2 0-0's to make it 5 draws at home.

We also won our 2 check-a-trade games when we score first and lost to Newport when they scored first.

So to sum up If we scored first at home (including cup games) W13 D3 L0...,Away W5 D3 L2

I the opposition score first.....Home W1 D1 L5 away W0 D0 L14

So I make that, including cups the opposition scored first on 21 occasions and we lost 19 of those games. the players clearly don't perform if we go 1-0 down....Regardless of who's manager.

Note this has been done quickly so please correct me if its wrong.
 
Very interesting and it would seem a psychological issue which I'm sure Chris will be keen to eradicate next season. I think the two away wins will give the players a lot of confidence but certainly whenever the opposition has scored first this season a sense of doom has overcome me.
 
Very interesting and it would seem a psychological issue which I'm sure Chris will be keen to eradicate next season. I think the two away wins will give the players a lot of confidence but certainly whenever the opposition has scored first this season a sense of doom has overcome me.

I think it may be more of a physiological issue. Even before the season I was concerned about how many players we had over the age of 30 and whether they could regularly play 90 minutes and last the season. I thought it unlikely Turner and Ferdinand could play all season and I thought it unlikely the likes of Fortune, Kightly and Cox could regularly play 90 minutes. Powell's had to rotate them and sub them which makes it harder to build consistency and partnerships. Obviously Powell's also made the team much younger so we have a few more young legs in there with the likes of Dru and Elvis which helps as well.

Under Powell we've gone 1-0 down in the first half three times and have three points from those matches (1 point per game).

Under Brown we went 1-0 down in the first half ten times and got one point from those matches (0.1 games per point).

There were a further two games under Powell and three games under Brown where the first goal wasn't until the second half and we lost.

Under Powell we won 7 and drawn 1 from the 8 matches in which we went 1-0 up (2.75 points per game).
Under Brown we won 8 but drew 5 and lost 1 from the 14 matches in which we went 1-0 up (2.07 points per game).

If we look at half-time scores
Under Brown we gained 5 points and lost 6 points (2 wins from drawing at HT, 1 draw from losing at HT, six defeats from drawing at HT).
Under Powell we gained 4 points and lost 2 points (2 wins from drawing at HT, 2 defeats from drawing at HT).
 
To me it's endemic of not having the right kind of leader on the pitch. Not an easy one to fix, but something to be mindful of in our recruitment efforts over the summer. Goals change games, we know that. We then need character on the pitch to change the mentality when things go against us. The opening post shows that we don't.
 
I think it may be more of a physiological issue. Even before the season I was concerned about how many players we had over the age of 30 and whether they could regularly play 90 minutes and last the season. I thought it unlikely Turner and Ferdinand could play all season and I thought it unlikely the likes of Fortune, Kightly and Cox could regularly play 90 minutes. Powell's had to rotate them and sub them which makes it harder to build consistency and partnerships. Obviously Powell's also made the team much younger so we have a few more young legs in there with the likes of Dru and Elvis which helps as well.

Under Powell we've gone 1-0 down in the first half three times and have three points from those matches (1 point per game).


Under Brown we went 1-0 down in the first half ten times and got one point from those matches (0.1 games per point).

There were a further two games under Powell and three games under Brown where the first goal wasn't until the second half and we lost.

Under Powell we won 7 and drawn 1 from the 8 matches in which we went 1-0 up (2.75 points per game).
Under Brown we won 8 but drew 5 and lost 1 from the 14 matches in which we went 1-0 up (2.07 points per game).

If we look at half-time scores
Under Brown we gained 5 points and lost 6 points (2 wins from drawing at HT, 1 draw from losing at HT, six defeats from drawing at HT).
Under Powell we gained 4 points and lost 2 points (2 wins from drawing at HT, 2 defeats from drawing at HT).

Nice false stats there Yorkshire.

We beat Scunthorpe at home after being one down, as we did in the previous 2 seasons. The 4 other games under CP when the opposition have score first, we have lost without scoring. Including our worst home defeat of 0-3 to Walsall. Who cares if all 3 were in the second half, that doesn't make it any better.

Not sure how you can blame it on our over 30 players, Turner and Fortune have done well for CP. In fact our all important injury time winner v Scunny came from Turner, to give CP his first and our only win after going 1-0 down.

The following week at Peterborough when Turner kept them out for the second half. I would rate that as easily the best 45 minutes anyone has had for us in the last 3 seasons. Then he scored in the first few minutes at home to Wigan the following week. 9 points and just as important, performances that ended any relegation worries and changed our season.
 
Interesting stats.

I don't think comparing manager on manager has any great bearing on whether their styles of leadership make any difference after going 1-0 behind. Particularly bearing in mind that the stats for PB should be spread over a longer range, rather than just this season.

The interesting stats to compare, if that is worth the research, is how many points lost when we were ahead, which might gauge slightly on which manager is set up better to defend a lead. That said, even those stats would need weighting a little.

Overall, though, as mentioned already, it's our seemingly collective lack of belief that we can get back into a game where we go behind. That was one of the things that has been a feature of our inconsistency this season, under both managers.
 
Nice false stats there Yorkshire.

We beat Scunthorpe at home after being one down, as we did in the previous 2 seasons. The 4 other games under CP when the opposition have score first, we have lost without scoring. Including our worst home defeat of 0-3 to Walsall. Who cares if all 3 were in the second half, that doesn't make it any better.

Not sure how you can blame it on our over 30 players, Turner and Fortune have done well for CP. In fact our all important injury time winner v Scunny came from Turner, to give CP his first and our only win after going 1-0 down.

The following week at Peterborough when Turner kept them out for the second half. I would rate that as easily the best 45 minutes anyone has had for us in the last 3 seasons. Then he scored in the first few minutes at home to Wigan the following week. 9 points and just as important, performances that ended any relegation worries and changed our season.

Hang on, is that Rigsby calling out people for making stuff up?

Pot, kettle, black lol
 
Rather than compare our two managers (over fairly short periods) it's perhaps more interesting to compare this season with how other teams cope with conceding first. If you google 'how important is the first goal' there are several analyses of this, but most relate to the Premier League where the ability gap between teams will be wider than it is lower down.

I found one analysis from League 2 (which includes us as it dates from 2012 when we were stranded down there). I've only skimmed it so far, but the first chart claims that the expected points from scoring first and conceding first are 2.30 and 0.49 respectively. Have a look at https://footballperformanceanalysis.com/2012/10/03/england-league-2-how-important-is-the-first-goal
 
Rather than compare our two managers (over fairly short periods) it's perhaps more interesting to compare this season with how other teams cope with conceding first. If you google 'how important is the first goal' there are several analyses of this, but most relate to the Premier League where the ability gap between teams will be wider than it is lower down.

I found one analysis from League 2 (which includes us as it dates from 2012 when we were stranded down there). I've only skimmed it so far, but the first chart claims that the expected points from scoring first and conceding first are 2.30 and 0.49 respectively. Have a look at https://footballperformanceanalysis.com/2012/10/03/england-league-2-how-important-is-the-first-goal

Good find.

I'd be interested to see those statistics over a bigger sample size. Scoring the first goal 15 minutes before half-time being a greater advantage than going 1-0 up with 15-30 minutes left seems strange but maybe that's more indicative of two evenly matched teams whereas in less evenly balanced contests the better team is more likely to have asserted it's superiority by half-time?
 
The first goal is very important if the other team fail to score .


This stat is a very good indication of who gets the 3 points .
 
There are some interesting stats here (that's if you find stats interesting)

https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-one

540 games now played this season and 12 to go - in 220 games only one of the teams scored plus 40 nil-nil draws so in 260 games, nearly half, one or both sides failed to score. There were then 73 1-1 draws, 24 2-2 draws and 7 3-3 draws. That lot total 364 games out of 540 leaving only 176 games where both sides scored that didn't end in a draw - a 2-1 result counting for 88 of those games -half. Who knows how many of those the losing team scored first? I don't but guess that it wasn't many.

Clearly the scoring first goal gives a great chance of winning and fair chance of not losing. Coming back and winning from a goal down appears to be much too rare.
 
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