I'm losing faith in Kevin Bond. Are you?

[Barry.C]

Whilst some may revel in the thought of sacking a Manager after two games it might be worth pointing out that nearly ALL sackings are Fools Gold !!

Theres actually been numerous amounts of research into this. Teams who sack their Manager, do usually get a SHORT TERM UPLIFT . Temporarily the points average lift over the next 8 games goes from 0.8 per match to 1.2. This uplift has been found to have nothing to do with the new Manager, IN FACT IF YOU KEPT THE OLD ONE THE SAME LIFT HAPPENS The mean gets reverted to quite quickly. So much is apparently down to LUCK.

On a separate piece of work, Anderson and Sallys research found Football results are 50% based on LUCK and 50% skill. A further study found Football is a low scoring game whereby CHANCE is more of a factor in victory,

Separately 21st Club Consultancy analysed all the points earned by teams in the top 5 European Leagues before and after sacking. The luck factor around the quality of chances created and conceded made the difference.
Another study by the Dutch found clubs that sacked their Manager after a terrible run and those that were kept also after a similar dire run, found results improved by exactly the same amount.

A Separate study of the Premier league between 2000 and 2015 found that sacking a Manager made little difference to a teams performance for other than a brief spell

On an average, in season replacements have been found to have zero effect on performance either during the season or in the long run. Its not so much about new tactics or Motivational talks its simply the next one in is less likely short term to suffer the same bad luck.

The Management bounce is a naughty Chimera, a phantom that is bound to revert to the median.
Now to be fair you have to be an EXCEPTIONAL Manager Good or Bad to make a big difference, The majority of Managers are all somewhere in the middle, so in wishing to dispense with someone you might just as well wear a pair of luck socks. More importantly and sad but true there is a 90% correlation between WAGES AND SUCCESS. And just think of all the big money and costs that get paid out when a Manager is dumped, the evidence suggests the money would be better spent on youth, academies, scouting and facilities which would make more of a difference, Oh and Wages.

Finally it is noteworthy that in the main replacement Managers come from the jobs market and have often found to be less skilful than the one that went before. I would suggest given his background Bond is very skilful, he , the team and us maybe need a break in fortune for a a little while?

Be careful what you wish for ??

 

[KiwiRob]

Whilst some may revel in the thought of sacking a Manager after two games it might be worth pointing out that nearly ALL sackings are Fools Gold !!

Theres actually been numerous amounts of research into this. Teams who sack their Manager, do usually get a SHORT TERM UPLIFT . Temporarily the points average lift over the next 8 games goes from 0.8 per match to 1.2. This uplift has been found to have nothing to do with the new Manager, IN FACT IF YOU KEPT THE OLD ONE THE SAME LIFT HAPPENS The mean gets reverted to quite quickly. So much is apparently down to LUCK.

On a separate piece of work, Anderson and Sallys research found Football results are 50% based on LUCK and 50% skill. A further study found Football is a low scoring game whereby CHANCE is more of a factor in victory,

Separately 21st Club Consultancy analysed all the points earned by teams in the top 5 European Leagues before and after sacking. The luck factor around the quality of chances created and conceded made the difference.
Another study by the Dutch found clubs that sacked their Manager after a terrible run and those that were kept also after a similar dire run, found results improved by exactly the same amount.

A Separate study of the Premier league between 2000 and 2015 found that sacking a Manager made little difference to a teams performance for other than a brief spell

On an average, in season replacements have been found to have zero effect on performance either during the season or in the long run. Its not so much about new tactics or Motivational talks its simply the next one in is less likely short term to suffer the same bad luck.

The Management bounce is a naughty Chimera, a phantom that is bound to revert to the median.
Now to be fair you have to be an EXCEPTIONAL Manager Good or Bad to make a big difference, The majority of Managers are all somewhere in the middle, so in wishing to dispense with someone you might just as well wear a pair of luck socks. More importantly and sad but true there is a 90% correlation between WAGES AND SUCCESS. And just think of all the big money and costs that get paid out when a Manager is dumped, the evidence suggests the money would be better spent on youth, academies, scouting and facilities which would make more of a difference, Oh and Wages.

Finally it is noteworthy that in the main replacement Managers come from the jobs market and have often found to be less skilful than the one that went before. I would suggest given his background Bond is very skilful, he , the team and us maybe need a break in fortune for a a little while?

Be careful what you wish for ??

Obviously, it is far too early to be calling for the dismissal of KB. There is no guarantee that the Chairman's next managerial appointment would be any improvement on the last. But I think the sense of unease that many supporters are experiencing is related to the fact the Chairman seemed to overlook a number of candidates with much stronger managerial track-records in Division 1 when he appointed KB. To be fair, KB's brief was to keep Southend up and he succeeded on that front, albeit by the skin of his teeth. Blackpool on Saturday were an object lesson in effectiveness at this level. Moved the ball with speed, simplicity and directness and sadly exposed a risk-averse and somewhat ponderous Southend style of play. I hope KB is big enough to realise that his unbalanced team selections have had a lot to do with recent defeats.

 

[rigsby]

Are they still even breathing in the East?

Got to be honest, I heard chants of 'off off off' in all the home stands

That was 30 seconds into the incident whilst the ref dithered.

My point was fans never reacted to a couple of big moments for us and were very slow when it came to that Elvis tackle......'Off off off' from the South Upper, is with all due respect, hardly the Dockers Stand level of intimidation.

Some on here expect a promotion push, even after last season. If that's the case then it needs to be the Roots Hall Roar, rather than Bore.

 

[rigsby]

I don't recall Ron ever employing a manager that's hung the players out to dry after the first two games of a season

He still hasn't.

Cox has made it public that he is the senior player in recent times. Managers from the Bond era expect their senior players to do the talking in the dressing room. Especially At H/T and full time.

As of yet I haven't witnessed Cox and Humphrys communicating on the pitch.

Whilst everyone was noticing Theos bad touch. I was wondering why he was trying to roll his marker in the area, when a simple ball back to Cox for a clear 16yd shot was the obvious option.

Seems to me that's another 'feud' that hasn't resolved its self.

 

[londonblue]

Whilst some may revel in the thought of sacking a Manager after two games it might be worth pointing out that nearly ALL sackings are Fools Gold !!

Theres actually been numerous amounts of research into this. Teams who sack their Manager, do usually get a SHORT TERM UPLIFT . Temporarily the points average lift over the next 8 games goes from 0.8 per match to 1.2. This uplift has been found to have nothing to do with the new Manager, IN FACT IF YOU KEPT THE OLD ONE THE SAME LIFT HAPPENS The mean gets reverted to quite quickly. So much is apparently down to LUCK.

On a separate piece of work, Anderson and Sallys research found Football results are 50% based on LUCK and 50% skill. A further study found Football is a low scoring game whereby CHANCE is more of a factor in victory,

Separately 21st Club Consultancy analysed all the points earned by teams in the top 5 European Leagues before and after sacking. The luck factor around the quality of chances created and conceded made the difference.
Another study by the Dutch found clubs that sacked their Manager after a terrible run and those that were kept also after a similar dire run, found results improved by exactly the same amount.

A Separate study of the Premier league between 2000 and 2015 found that sacking a Manager made little difference to a teams performance for other than a brief spell

On an average, in season replacements have been found to have zero effect on performance either during the season or in the long run. Its not so much about new tactics or Motivational talks its simply the next one in is less likely short term to suffer the same bad luck.

The Management bounce is a naughty Chimera, a phantom that is bound to revert to the median.
Now to be fair you have to be an EXCEPTIONAL Manager Good or Bad to make a big difference, The majority of Managers are all somewhere in the middle, so in wishing to dispense with someone you might just as well wear a pair of luck socks. More importantly and sad but true there is a 90% correlation between WAGES AND SUCCESS. And just think of all the big money and costs that get paid out when a Manager is dumped, the evidence suggests the money would be better spent on youth, academies, scouting and facilities which would make more of a difference, Oh and Wages.

Finally it is noteworthy that in the main replacement Managers come from the jobs market and have often found to be less skilful than the one that went before. I would suggest given his background Bond is very skilful, he , the team and us maybe need a break in fortune for a a little while?

Be careful what you wish for ??

The same research (or maybe different) named 5 managers that managed to buck that trend. One was Sir Alex Ferguson. Two others were Paul Sturrock and Steve Tilson

 

[davewebbsbrain]

That was 30 seconds into the incident whilst the ref dithered.

My point was fans never reacted to a couple of big moments for us and were very slow when it came to that Elvis tackle......'Off off off' from the South Upper, is with all due respect, hardly the Dockers Stand level of intimidation.

Some on here expect a promotion push, even after last season. If that's the case then it needs to be the Roots Hall Roar, rather than Bore.

Well I'm sorry that the South Upper doesnt compare with the intimidation levels of the West stand. We can't be as good supporters clearly

 

[rigsby]

Well I'm sorry that the South Upper doesnt compare with the intimidation levels of the West stand. We can't be as good supporters clearly

I think you have miss read my post.

By the way I don't go in the West....Tried it for a bit last season...We lost every game and I didn't like the double pillar/TV ladder restricted view.

 

[Lincoln Shrimp]

He still hasn't.

Cox has made it public that he is the senior player in recent times. Managers from the Bond era expect their senior players to do the talking in the dressing room. Especially At H/T and full time.

As of yet I haven't witnessed Cox and Humphrys communicating on the pitch.

Whilst everyone was noticing Theos bad touch. I was wondering why he was trying to roll his marker in the area, when a simple ball back to Cox for a clear 16yd shot was the obvious option.

Seems to me that's another 'feud' that hasn't resolved its self.

Have I missed something. When did this 'feud' between Cox and Humphrys develop?

 

[SheldonW65]

Have I missed something. When did this 'feud' between Cox and Humphrys develop?

Cox and Robinson

 

[davewebbsbrain]

I think you have miss read my post.

By the way I don't go in the West....Tried it for a bit last season...We lost every game and I didn't like the double pillar/TV ladder restricted view.

So if our South Stand doesn't have the intimidation level of the Dockers stand, then by proxy, our other stands don't have the intimidation level of other big clubs stands

They means we have a low intimidation level all round the stadium so it's no surprise that the ref took his time deciding to give a red.

I have seen refs give a red straight away at Roots hall to the away team for less severe tackles than that one. I suggest that the ref was totally inept rather than the noise level not being intimidating enough for him to decide immediately

 

[onceknownasrab]

Whilst some may revel in the thought of sacking a Manager after two games it might be worth pointing out that nearly ALL sackings are Fools Gold !!

Theres actually been numerous amounts of research into this. Teams who sack their Manager, do usually get a SHORT TERM UPLIFT . Temporarily the points average lift over the next 8 games goes from 0.8 per match to 1.2. This uplift has been found to have nothing to do with the new Manager, IN FACT IF YOU KEPT THE OLD ONE THE SAME LIFT HAPPENS The mean gets reverted to quite quickly. So much is apparently down to LUCK.

On a separate piece of work, Anderson and Sallys research found Football results are 50% based on LUCK and 50% skill. A further study found Football is a low scoring game whereby CHANCE is more of a factor in victory,

Separately 21st Club Consultancy analysed all the points earned by teams in the top 5 European Leagues before and after sacking. The luck factor around the quality of chances created and conceded made the difference.
Another study by the Dutch found clubs that sacked their Manager after a terrible run and those that were kept also after a similar dire run, found results improved by exactly the same amount.

A Separate study of the Premier league between 2000 and 2015 found that sacking a Manager made little difference to a teams performance for other than a brief spell

On an average, in season replacements have been found to have zero effect on performance either during the season or in the long run. Its not so much about new tactics or Motivational talks its simply the next one in is less likely short term to suffer the same bad luck.

The Management bounce is a naughty Chimera, a phantom that is bound to revert to the median.
Now to be fair you have to be an EXCEPTIONAL Manager Good or Bad to make a big difference, The majority of Managers are all somewhere in the middle, so in wishing to dispense with someone you might just as well wear a pair of luck socks. More importantly and sad but true there is a 90% correlation between WAGES AND SUCCESS. And just think of all the big money and costs that get paid out when a Manager is dumped, the evidence suggests the money would be better spent on youth, academies, scouting and facilities which would make more of a difference, Oh and Wages.

Finally it is noteworthy that in the main replacement Managers come from the jobs market and have often found to be less skilful than the one that went before. I would suggest given his background Bond is very skilful, he , the team and us maybe need a break in fortune for a a little while?

Be careful what you wish for ??

How can it possibly be known what would have happened if you kept the old manager? This post was an interesting read but 'luck' is hardly a quantitative commodity and is largely subjective. I prefer empirical results.

 

[rigsby]

So if our South Stand doesn't have the intimidation level of the Dockers stand, then by proxy, our other stands don't have the intimidation level of other big clubs stands

They means we have a low intimidation level all round the stadium so it's no surprise that the ref took his time deciding to give a red.

I have seen refs give a red straight away at Roots hall to the away team for less severe tackles than that one. I suggest that the ref was totally inept rather than the noise level not being intimidating enough for him to decide immediately

The second yellows last season to Theo and Cox were two of the weakest I have ever seen.

What about Turner on of all people the same cheats from Saturday.

Kightly was the victim of the worst tackle of the season at RH last season v Charlton. Their player was shown only a yellow yet Kightly got a red for actually kicking the ball. Yes it was aggressive but the Charlton player was deliberately laying on the ball so it was there to be played.

Its quite clear that the word in football is RH has become a bit soft. Blackpool came here her last year for a win. They certainly did again on Saturday but also decided to rub our noses in it while they were here.

 

[Weston's left foot]

Can someone find the thread at the end of last season on here where Zoner's gave their opinion's on whether Bond should be given the Job?

 

[Tommy2holes]

My main gripe throughout browns, Powell's and now bonds tenure, is the midfield movement off of the ball.

Im already starting to feel sorry for Milligan.

So many times he has the ball and we are just stature esque. He has to resort to going long.

It's not hard. You have possession then you can't be hurt. You pass and you move into space. Our players pass and move nowhere.

We end up looking for the Hollywood pass which inevitably fails.

We seem intent under bond to play out from the back. I haven't got a problem with this but it only works if you are a well drilled team and comfortable in possession.

Playing with wing backs works if they can get beyond the half way line and if they can link with the wingers ahead of them. We didn't start any winger.

I'd be happy to go back to a 4-4-2 system for a while to gain confidence and get points on the board.

Fwiw Chelsea played an almost identical system against United yesterday that we played against Coventry. They got smashed.

At our level it's about competing physically as well as getting the points. The systems we are trying to adopt seem to be beyond this team.

We need a hard ******* midfielder who can carry the ball.

Mantom isn't bad but isn't that type
Dieng isn't that player and isn't that type
Hyam is apparently that type but is constantly injured.
Milligan is doing his job. Anchoring the midfield.

Let's hope we can bring a midfielder in who is that type and we revert to a system that suits us.

If we get beat by a poor Stevenage side tonight and get thumped at Lincoln, KB will be under pressure in my honest opinion.

 

[LBBlue]

Its quite clear that the word in football is RH has become a bit soft. Blackpool came here her last year for a win. They certainly did again on Saturday but also decided to rub our noses in it while they were here.

Do you mean the players are too soft? - There aren't many winners out there in this squad - our red cards are usually for next to nothing mainly for crass stupidity.

 

[rigsby]

Not sure what you're trying to say here?

That you're not allowed to complain and moan? You're only a supporter if you cheer etc.

I think the post was quite clear. I asked if anyone on here was man enough to admit that not starting Humprhys at Cov was the right decision........Across several threads it would appear not.

The next thread should be, Have Bond, the players and their families lost faith in the fans.

I dare say it might cause to much moaning from some on here.

 

[Grapevine]

I think the post was quite clear. I asked if anyone on here was man enough to admit that not starting Humprhys at Cov was the right decision........Across several threads it would appear not

FWIW I have said several times that in my opinion Humphrys hasn’t been right all pre season. My feeling is he’s unable to compete physically like he’d like to since his injury....there’s no doubt he was rushed back last season (maybe his choice maybe the managers) but I said at the time the difference between “back in training” and being capable of playing games to the required standard physically or psychologically is another matter all together.....and we can harp on about the goal that saved us all you like....he done brilliantly but that goal doesn’t and didn’t mean he was over the injuries and holistically happy.....

 

[rigsby]

Yes he had to have reconstruction surgery in the summer. The initial injury of 15? broken bones may actually effect his career for the rest of his life......I hope not but have seen plenty of tough people be effected by less. Including some nasty facial injuries in local cricket.

Like you I could see he was not right v Millwall but no one wanted the truth to spoil good 'Bond got it all wrong' type posts from the moment the team was announced at Cov.

Seems the injury curse has followed us into this season. Tonight we have no Goodship, Humprhys should definitely be rested which means we should not risk a recovering, not yet ready for 2 starts in 3 days Cox.

That wont stop more posts on here if we lose. Lead by those that are never happy unless they have something to moan about.

 

[Mr Browns Ghost]

I think the poll says otherwise and that is a better barometer of posters opinions. When folk on the Zone have the hump over something they post loud and clear, the vast majority (and we have over 6000 members) reserve judgement.

6000 members aye? Didn’t we once have a bigger supporters club than Manchester United ?

 

[Blueronron]

6000 members aye? Didn’t we once have a bigger supporters club than Manchester United ?

About the same members on here who turned up for play off final in Cardiff