IMF cuts global growth outlook but raises UK forecast

[steveo]

Bad news for Barna. This isn't really going to plan is it Barna? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24444134

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Bad news for Barna. This isn't really going to plan is it Barna? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24444134

While welcome,it's still only a forecast.Let's wait and see what the reality is.

"However, it (ie the IMF) warned that it would still take years for the UK economy to recover fully from the 2008 financial crisis."

You've taken your eye off the ball.The argument has moved on to falling living stadards since 2010, which will still be the case even if there is a substantial increase in growth rates by 2015.

Prices are increasing faster than wages.That's why people rightly feel worse off.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

While welcome,it's still only a forecast.Let's wait and see what the reality is.

"However, it (ie the IMF) warned that it would still take years for the UK economy to recover fully from the 2008 financial crisis."

You've taken your eye off the ball.The argument has moved on to falling living stadards since 2010, which will still be the case even if there is a substantial increase in growth rates by 2015.

Prices are increasing faster than wages.That's why people rightly feel worse off.

Bad Steveo - follow those goalposts more carefully next time!

 

[C'mon you Shrimpers]

the goalposts have only moved in the eyes of Labour apologists and Miliband. The relality is and was the public sector was wildly out of control and the economy unbalanced. The Tories have only being trying to do what they promised. Not easy for them to do and not easy for me to say as I'm not a Tory. They are getting there. TBH I don't feel the country should have gone through this pain foir the Labour party to muck it up which they will do. The analogy for me is that the fat man has now slimmed down and is fitter than he has been for years but the Labour party are ordering pizza.

 

[Jam_Man]

As the economy picks up then so will wages and everything will go back to normal just like after every recession.

Its not rocket science.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

the goalposts have only moved in the eyes of Labour apologists and Miliband. The relality is and was the public sector was wildly out of control and the economy unbalanced. The Tories have only being trying to do what they promised. Not easy for them to do and not easy for me to say as I'm not a Tory. They are getting there. TBH I don't feel the country should have gone through this pain foir the Labour party to muck it up which they will do. The analogy for me is that the fat man has now slimmed down and is fitter than he has been for years but the Labour party are ordering pizza.

It's not over 'til the fat man stops singing.:winking:

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

As the economy picks up then so will wages and everything will go back to normal just like after every recession.

Its not rocket science.

And here's a quote for you :--

"However, it (ie the IMF) warned that it would still take years for the UK economy to recover fully from the 2008 financial crisis."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24444134

 

[steveo]

This would be the 2008 financial crisis which was apparently was nothing to do with the government of the time then.
The whole thing revolves around spending money you dont have, I've seen it for years in individuals, families, businesses and Countries. At some stage you need to halt the slide or it gets the better of you.
The current government is trying to halt the slide. Labour would have continued as they were and we would have been in deeper **** had they got in again.

Greece, Spain the bloke down the road, all spending money they cant afford and it takes something dramatic for them to stop, take on some hard times and put their house in order.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

This would be the 2008 financial crisis which was apparently was nothing to do with the government of the time then.
The whole thing revolves around spending money you dont have, I've seen it for years in individuals, families, businesses and Countries. At some stage you need to halt the slide or it gets the better of you.
The current government is trying to halt the slide. Labour would have continued as they were and we would have been in deeper **** had they got in again.

Greece, Spain the bloke down the road, all spending money they cant afford and it takes something dramatic for them to stop, take on some hard times and put their house in order.

That's nonsense.

Darling published deficit reduction plans before the 2010 GE,which were broadly similar to what the Tories have actually done in office, (as opposed to what they said they'd do).

See the link below for a recent take on the financial crisis in Europe:_

"Europe is sinking into a protracted period of deepening poverty, mass unemployment, social exclusion, greater inequality, and collective despair as a result of austerity policies adopted in response to the debt and currency crisis of the past four years."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/10/austerity-europe-debt-red-cross

 

[steveo]

When are you lefties going to learn that things have to be paid for and you cant keep living on other peoples money forever and that there isn't a fairy godmother who lets everyone have everything they want whenever they want it?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

When are you lefties going to learn that things have to be paid for and you cant keep living on other peoples money forever and that there isn't a fairy godmother who lets everyone have everything they want whenever they want it?

Isn't there? :unsure::winking:

 

[Neil_F]

"However, it (ie the IMF) warned that it would still take years for the UK economy to recover fully from the 2008 financial crisis."

Hmmm.... I know you've taken that from the BBC website, but that isn't what the IMF actually says. It says that the UK economy won't reach trend growth for a number of years. Now, there are a few relevant considerations here. The first is that the IMF are face saving to some extent since they said six months ago that the UK must change course or face disaster, which obviously hasn't happened. I always thought it was a strange thing to say because UK austerity, at less than 1% per year, is considerably less than the near 3% per year the IMF has imposed in peripheral Europe. Also, rather crucially, the UK has had a massive monetary stimulus through quantitative easing and Europe has not.

the next thing is that UK trend growth was about 3% per-2008. That was on the back of a house price bubble, a credit fuelled consumer spending binge and financial service activity that no longer exists. Whether that was genuinely trend growth is debate able. Aim of the opinion that trend growth is more like 2%.

You've taken your eye off the ball.The argument has moved on to falling living stadards since 2010, which will still be the case even if there is a substantial increase in growth rates by 2015. Prices are increasing faster than wages.That's why people rightly feel worse off.

according to the ONS, real wage growth turned negative in 2009. Consumer purchasing power, a proxy for your living standards, began to decline in late 2007 and accelerated through 2008.

the recession resulted in a 30% depreciation in sterling, which significantly increases prices, especially for anything relying on oil, that is, everything. The depreciation was as a result if quantitative easing and the fact that theUK was a near basket case given that the government was running deficits since 2001. With the recent return of growth, sterling has appreciated by nearly 10% so prices will start to fall. The US problems will also see an appreciation against the dollar, which is helpful since oil is quoted in USD.

as for wages, it isn't surprising that growth has been stagnant. As the economy grows and unemployment falls then wage growth will increase. You can think of this as it turning from an employers' market (there is a surplus of available labour so wages can be kept down) to a workers' market ( employers pay more to attract and retain the best labour since there are limited alternatives).

whether this will happen before next year I have no idea.

 

[Bielzibubz]

*waits for Barna to come back with a two line quote from The Guardian* ;)

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

*waits for Barna to come back with a two line quote from The Guardian* ;)

Very little to argue about here.Apart from the speculation about the future that is.

whether this will happen before next year I have no idea.

 

[superblue24]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24668687

More bad news for Barna.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24668687

More bad news for Barna.

You'll find this quote in the article which you gave a link to :-

"But overall economic activity is still not back where it was before the recession. The important services sector is higher than the previous peak, but manufacturing and construction some way below. Further evidence is needed before this can be judged a truly balanced recovery".

 

[superblue24]

You'll find this quote in the article which you gave a link to :-

"But overall economic activity is still not back where it was before the recession. The important services sector is higher than the previous peak, but manufacturing and construction some way below. Further evidence is needed before this can be judged a truly balanced recovery".

Of course it's not. For anyone to suggest it would be turned around immediately is just crazy. We can't just "handbrake turn" out of a recession. It's more of an "Austin Powers" style manouevre.

But then he's a Lib Dem, so I'd expect nothing more than a negative side swipe.

 

[Neil_F]

Of course it's not. For anyone to suggest it would be turned around immediately is just crazy. We can't just "handbrake turn" out of a recession. It's more of an "Austin Powers" style manouevre.

But then he's a Lib Dem, so I'd expect nothing more than a negative side swipe.

Austin Powers is a Lib Dem? That I could believe.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

. It's more of an "Austin Powers" style manouevre.

Austin Powers is a Lib Dem? That I could believe.

Sorry, I haven't seen any of the Austin Powers films,so I'm unable to comment on his politics or driving.:smiles:

 

[superblue24]

Austin Powers is a Lib Dem? That I could believe.

Haha, perhaps. I actually meant Hugh Pym who provided Barna with that quote.