Question Is reaching the play-offs a formality?

[DoDTS]

I was talking to DtS last night and discussing just how much of a formality it is that we will reach a minimum of the plays offs? Anyone who was scarred for life by the collapse of 1968 will take nothing for granted but the stats are as follows;

Looking at League 2 for the last ten years, the club to grab the last play off spot gained an average of 71 points the highest being in 2007-8 with 78 points the lowest 66 points in 2005-6.

Using these statistics we currently have 56 points and from our remaining 16 games we would need:

A minimum of 10 more points, (3 wins and a draw)
A maximum of 22 points (7 wins and a draw)
Probably 15 points would be enough, (5 wins).

It would take a really bad downturn of form to miss the minimum or the average, and mediocre form would be sufficient to reach the maximum, but nothing is guaranteed. .

To my mind let’s get past the 71 point mark an then start worrying about the automatic places.

DoDtS

 

[united we stand]

If we only scrap into the play offs , would you ahve any confidence in us getting any further?

anyway its academic because we wont need the play offs :winking:

 

[canveyshrimper]

As someone who still wakes in the middle of the night in a cold sweat remembering the collapse of 1968, I am cautiously optimistic. I can't see us falling away in such a fashion so I'd say we are pretty much assured of a play off spot if we maintain our current patchy form.

However we are a very good away side, and I think we'll win at least 4 of our remaining away games. Our home form is more of a worry and we need to start winning home games again, yes I know that's stating the bleedin' obvious but it's true. IMO with 17 games left we need to win 9 which should ensure a top 3 spot,

 

[kentblues]

Absolute focus on top 3- all that matters. Thats the best way of ensuring the play offs.

 

[DoDTS]

Well I would take it one step at a time but for the more enthuiastic here's the stats for an automatic place:

To finish in third place we would need an average of 82 points the highest being in 2007-8 with 88 points the lowest 78 points in 2008-9.

Using these statistics we currently have 56 points and from our remaining 16 games we would need:

A minimum of 22 more points, (7 wins and a draw)
A maximum of 32 points (10 wins and two draws)
Probably 26 points would be enough, (8 wins anmd two draws)

DoDtS

 

[Smiffy]

IF we only make the play-off's. Then I for one would hold very little hope of us gaining promotion that way.

It's top 3 or another spell in this ******** league IMO.

 

[Jam_Man]

We will make play offs without a doubt, but if we only make them then its a sign we arent in good form and with the disappointment of losing out dont fancy us in them.

Strangely if you do get promoted via the playoffs its actually nicer than via automatics.

 

[londonblue]

IMO with 17 games left we need to win 9 which should ensure a top 3 spot,

Except we have 16 games left...

 

[Pubey]

Except we have 16 games left...

RM out! He's stolen our assets and he's stealing our games

 

[fredheim_holm]

Well I would take it one step at a time but for the more enthuiastic here's the stats for an automatic place:

To finish in third place we would need an average of 82 points the highest being in 2007-8 with 88 points the lowest 78 points in 2008-9.

Using these statistics we currently have 56 points and from our remaining 16 games we would need:

A minimum of 22 more points, (7 wins and a draw)
A maximum of 32 points (10 wins and two draws)
Probably 26 points would be enough, (8 wins anmd two draws)

DoDtS

If we take the maximum of 32 points, throw in a few more draws (lets say we draw 5), then we'd need 9 wins, 5 draws leaving us with 2 games leeway to lose.

Realistically we hopefully won't need 32 more points, so in my mind I'd say we could lose up to 4 games and still make the top 3. Remember that next time we lose and everyone says we're doomed!

 

[enfieldblue]

one win down - nine more to go

up the blues

 

[blue79]

Personally We're certs for the play-offs now if we don't finish in the top 3 after todays win with Crewe. Top 3 still very much on though but wished we'd all played same number of games.

 

[blue79]

To be honest Enfield despite what I just posted here I do believe the chances of winning 9 of our remaining 15 games are slim. Not kncking the team but feel thats a difficult ask.

 

[DoDTS]

Looking at the ten seasons the situation about this time is most similar to season 2009-10. On the 16th Feb 2010 like now the top six had broken away with points ranging from 59 to 51 points with 7th club on 46 (compared to now top six 59 to 55 with seventh club on 47).

Using this comparison in 2009-10 you needed;
93 points for the title
82 points for automatic
72 points for play offs

DoDtS

 

[Shrimp and two veg]

Can't see us getting beat for the rest of the season now.
We can afford to rest the likes of Hall as we start the run-in and we are still beating teams on good form..home or away.
I think we still have a lot of goals in us, the newbies such as Dickinson and Martin have adjusted and we are rocking on nicely.