Is this finally it?

[J]

Well, there has been some times in my life, where i thought war was imminent.

However, i think it could be it now, having just seen islamists protesting in several countries, including England, i wonder if it is about to "go?" ...

I thought when Russia took on Georgia, it may have been close, but however butch Putin wanted to be, he knows full well, he would never win against the yanks, and the West. However, with the Arab world apparently split, it seems it's kicking off everywhere... Yes we have seen this before, however, i think Israel may be putting the final nail in. Let's face it, we are only days from a ground invasion!

Who would lay their loyalties where -

West -
U.S.A.
UK
Egypt
Israel
India
???

East -
Turkey??
Pakistan
Palestine
Iran
???

Now i don't think it is much to worry about yet, as looking at the "East" Other than Iran, there isn't too much of a worry, however, it would be the war on the home front that would be concerning..

There is always a lot of talk about the Christian Vs Islam fighting, and maybe this is actually coming to the boil?

Thoughts?


Let's not make this a SZ vs J and Rusty thread, let's have some proper answers and a proper debate.

 

[Lord Football]

War. No chance. Firstly, no one can afford it. Wars don't come cheap. The world is in recession, Governments simply wont be banging troops in far flung places and dropping very expensive bombs on targets.

The substantial amount of the electorate are still enraged about the current situation in Iraq where it is clear that the governments of the UK and US lied about WMDs.

Obama got elected on a platform of solving the Iraq situation and Brown has promised a withdrawl in the next year. I gather opinion in the post Bush era US is that it is time to rethink strategy.

The real sticking point is, as always, the Israel situation. It can be twisted and turned however you like, but whilst Israel enjoys the backing of the US it seems to want to do as it likes. On the other hand, if it didnt have that backing, then you can see a real blood bath in that part of the world. But I don't think the current situation is any worse than what we've seen in the last 30 or so years of cross border shelling and retaliation.

There always a small minority on the religious divide that seek to expose cultural differences and make something of it. You have the islamofacists and the far right white racists who stoke up hatred. But whilst it makes life difficult for society, it isn't going to cause a war.

Al Qaeda, is it a strength anymore? They never really followed up 9/11. Yes, there has been a few copy cat acts from individuals but Al Qaeda as an organisation seems content to be causing mayhem in occupied Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[Irish_Shrimper]

Now i don't think it is much to worry about yet, as looking at the "East" Other than Iran, there isn't too much of a worry

Don't Pakistan have nuclear weapons? That should worry you just a tad.

 

[J]

We have the Pakistani Front, where both Military's are waiting for a trigger, we have Israel bulldozing Palestine, we have the Iraq Pull out, which will inevitabley be the collapse of the Iraqi government, and a big sandy playground for terrorists. We have Afghanistan which will continue for maybe 20/30 years plus, we have China pushing the boundaries further every year...

Something has to give surely??

If 8 years ago with the "race riots" up and down the country happened now, it would be 10 maybe 100 times bigger than it was, there are racial divides and tensions bubbling at the surface in this country, it's kicking off all over the world...

Will there be anything that ties it all together, and at some stage, push the world to war?

You mention the recession, well, how about the demographic transition model??

The model that predicts and tracks Populations in the world.. Once a country hit's stage 5 - they can hit an unknown stage 6 or go back to stage 1, which is usually a country at war, with no money, and a population downsizing due to everything that goes with war, death through fighting, illness etc, if anything, the recession is a strong indicator, something may happen.

 

[J]

Don't Pakistan have nuclear weapons? That should worry you just a tad.

No, Barrack Obamha has already clearly stated, he would bomb Pakistan back to the stone age.

 

[Lord Football]

We have the Pakistani Front, where both Military's are waiting for a trigger, we have Israel bulldozing Palestine, we have the Iraq Pull out, which will inevitabley be the collapse of the Iraqi government, and a big sandy playground for terrorists. We have Afghanistan which will continue for maybe 20/30 years plus, we have China pushing the boundaries further every year...

Something has to give surely??

If 8 years ago with the "race riots" up and down the country happened now, it would be 10 maybe 100 times bigger than it was, there are racial divides and tensions bubbling at the surface in this country, it's kicking off all over the world...

Will there be anything that ties it all together, and at some stage, push the world to war?

You mention the recession, well, how about the demographic transition model??

The model that predicts and tracks Populations in the world.. Once a country hit's stage 5 - they can hit an unknown stage 6 or go back to stage 1, which is usually a country at war, with no money, and a population downsizing due to everything that goes with war, death through fighting, illness etc, if anything, the recession is a strong indicator, something may happen.

If anything ever goes off between Pakistan and India, I think it would only involve those two states. Certainly given the current diplomatic relations, you can't see any of the world's powers taking a side. But it has been that way since about 1947, and I really can't see it changing for the worst.

Iraq wasn't a "sandy haven for terrorists" until the US marched in, but I don't really think we want a debate on that. Will the Iraqi Gvt fall when the west pulls out, I don't know. Do you really think that they will pull out or just give the impression that they have. I seem to remember watching something this week about how a lot of the local populations are turning against Al Qaeda because the tide has turned and they no longer feel threatened. (Though I admit I may have been ****ed and dreamed it all).

I think the DTM is irrelevant in this argument. Firstly, it's just a model and doesn't take into account globalisation to any degree and is based on history as opposed to mapping to the future. The recession on the other hand is important. Given our economies are based on oil, the very last thing anyone needs right now is a war in the oil producing counties of the world.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Good point about China .. i always thought any WWIII (however unlikely) would kick off with them to the fore

 

[J]

If anything ever goes off between Pakistan and India, I think it would only involve those two states. Certainly given the current diplomatic relations, you can't see any of the world's powers taking a side. But it has been that way since about 1947, and I really can't see it changing for the worst.

Iraq wasn't a "sandy haven for terrorists" until the US marched in, but I don't really think we want a debate on that. Will the Iraqi Gvt fall when the west pulls out, I don't know. Do you really think that they will pull out or just give the impression that they have. I seem to remember watching something this week about how a lot of the local populations are turning against Al Qaeda because the tide has turned and they no longer feel threatened. (Though I admit I may have been ****ed and dreamed it all).

I think the DTM is irrelevant in this argument. Firstly, it's just a model and doesn't take into account globalisation to any degree and is based on history as opposed to mapping to the future. The recession on the other hand is important. Given our economies are based on oil, the very last thing anyone needs right now is a war in the oil producing counties of the world.

Iraq wasn't a sandy haven for terrorism, i know, however, i fear it will be, as the country is much more unstabilised than 10 years ago, for that, there is no denial.

The Oil is important, and the arguement as important as ever, however, who is in control of the Oil Pipelines? Arab states, or the western security firms employed to protect them at all costs? It is the latter... How about the other big worry, russia and the gas?

It was close this year, no one can deny that - No sustained pressure from the west either, which pretty much showed russia they could test and push as far as they want...

The DMT may be irrelevant in the future, who knows, only time will tell - however it is a good indicator of what may be in store.

 

[Irate Ian]

Our relations with Russia have been at rock bottom for some time following the poisoning episode on our turf and refusal to allow the alleged perp to be returned to be tried here.

Their flyover into our eastern airspace more recently shows underlying continuing hostilities.

Brown is living on borrowed time with an election looming on the horizon and no way would he want to prejudice their chances any further by getting involved in any further conflict. Lame duck PM, which is maybe not a bad thing in the circumstances.

Any internal strife would have to be stamped on though and cannot be tollerated, at any cost. Any uprising by radicals of any variety is simply not acceptable in a civilised society.

 

[steveo]

Why did the other thread get closed?

As I understand it, Israel are bombing known Hamas targets. The Palestinians dont come out and fight as an army so if israel want to eliminate Hamas and reduce the threat to their own country, they are bound to select targets which may involve civilian casualties.

And as for this lot:

Seven people were arrested after a second day of protests outside the Israeli Embassy in west London over Israel's air raids on Gaza.
The arrests were for public order offences including assaulting police. Objects were hurled at the embassy and a cone and policeman's hat set alight.
The BBC's Colette McBeth said there were "at least 500, perhaps more" people outside the Kensington building.

Arrest them and send them back to where they came from.

 

[Crabby Shrimper]

Why did the other thread get closed?

As I understand it, Israel are bombing known Hamas targets. The Palestinians dont come out and fight as an army so if israel want to eliminate Hamas and reduce the threat to their own country, they are bound to select targets which may involve civilian casualties.

Thats the problem, people look at the israelis as the murderers, yet forget that the Palestinians are effectively hiding behind a human shield.

Not many of you will remember (Cricko possibly) but during the Boer war a similar thing happened. The Boers realised that in open combat, army v army, they stood no chance whatsoever. So, they took up arms in a gueriila style. Hitting our lines, then retreating back into the townships as civillians. We were widele panned for the use of concentration camps, and yes the conditions inside were appalling, but by putting the civillians in these, it left nowhere for the fighters to hide, and prevented the need to just massacre entire towns.

People remember the "concentration camps" but forget the boers using women and children to hide behind.

 

[londonblue]

Thats the problem, people look at the israelis as the murderers, yet forget that the Palestinians are effectively hiding behind a human shield.

Not to mention their use of ambulances to transport militants (or should I say terrorists?) and weapons. How bad does it look when Israel blows up an ambulance?

 

[Southminster_Shrimper]

The Salvation Army will protect us, dont worry.

 

[fatshrimp]

We're some way away from a full scale war I think. However, we have to take into account the passion / belief / fanaticism of the Israelis, the Palestinians and the neighbouring countries. I wouldn't want to second guess what they might be capable of.

Also, the 'global community' will be looking to either test Barack Obama or will at least expect some strong direction from him in the early days of his Presidency.

I can't imagine he'll want to rush into another unwinable conflict in a hurry.

 

[Vange Shrimper]

What about North Korea? They have nuclear power stations which they have done testing in and have tested missiles. They are also very anti - west. Their leader is a nut case so could expect anything from him.

 

[Southminster_Shrimper]

What about North Korea? They have nuclear power stations which they have done testing in and have tested missiles. They are also very anti - west. Their leader is a nut case so could expect anything from him.

And like everywhere else the country is potless not to mention its gone to the dogs....:stunned:

 

[Vange Shrimper]

And like everywhere else the country is potless not to mention its gone to the dogs....:stunned:

Literally, cos it wouldnt suprise me if they eat them there. Or am I getting it mixed up with China?

 

[Lord Football]

North Korea isn't a threat. It tested missles and they didn't do very well. The point with missiles is not the missile itself but the delivery method. N Korea would need the backing of China or Russia to become a threat, and that isn't likely.

 

[RobM]

War. No chance. Firstly, no one can afford it. Wars don't come cheap. The world is in recession, Governments simply wont be banging troops in far flung places and dropping very expensive bombs on targets.QUOTE]


Since when has ever been an issue? Even the most impoverished nations find the money from somewhere.

 

[BLUEBLOOD]

Since when has ever been an issue? Even the most impoverished nations find the money from somewhere.

Indeed .. wasn't Ethiopia enveloped by Civil War when Saint (sic) Bob got on his high horse in the 80s ??