It's going to be tight but yes!!! 6th place!

[Stuart W]

Ok, time for an assessment of our play-off chances.
2 pieces of good news:- Scunthorpe's next 4 games are Oxford (a), Bradford (h), Millwall (a) Bolton (h). And secondly, Millwall's 3 rescheduled games are all away, including Sheff Utd and Rochdale.
For what it's worth I think these are the 2 sides we can catch. Forget Bradford, they have some easy home games.

By trying to be objective ( not easy I admit), I have us finishing 6th on 75 points, behind Scunny on goal difference but one point ahead of Millwall.

This assumes 5 wins, 3 draws and one defeat (at Charlton) in our remaining games.

Ready and prepared to receive alternative views and/or criticism!!!

 

[dannypav]

My only criticism is that we will beat Charlton !!!! :winking:

 

[Jai]

Big assumption given one win in five and points dropped against lesser sides all over the shop, but I like your version.

 

[leeblue]

Let's get on the the positivity train people....chooooooo chooooooo

 

[londonblue]

Ok, time for an assessment of our play-off chances.
2 pieces of good news:- Scunthorpe's next 4 games are Oxford (a), Bradford (h), Millwall (a) Bolton (h). And secondly, Millwall's 3 rescheduled games are all away, including Sheff Utd and Rochdale.
For what it's worth I think these are the 2 sides we can catch. Forget Bradford, they have some easy home games.

By trying to be objective ( not easy I admit), I have us finishing 6th on 75 points, behind Scunny on goal difference but one point ahead of Millwall.

This assumes 5 wins, 3 draws and one defeat (at Charlton) in our remaining games.

Ready and prepared to receive alternative views and/or criticism!!!

Have you accounted for Oxford? They're 5 points behind us with two games in hand.

 

[onceknownasrab]

I applaud the optimism but sadly believe it's a bridge too far. I would love to be proved wrong. For me, in hope, I would like to see us finish the season well and even if we narrowly missed out on the play offs it is still a positive and successful season. To do that we need to pull our finger out. We are capable.

 

[AndyT]

Big assumption given one win in five and points dropped against lesser sides all over the shop, but I like your version.

One win in four, to be fair, but four wins and two draws in nine (14 points).

Based on that form for the remaining nine, we would finish on 71 points, which is not far off, so maybe 1 extra win could be enough.

The last six seasons in League One, more than 74 points has never been needed for the play-offs and, indeed, as few as 69 and 71 have been enough.

 

[AndyT]

Have you accounted for Oxford? They're 5 points behind us with two games in hand.

One game in hand.

 

[Up the Shrimpers]

One win in four, to be fair, but four wins and two draws in nine (14 points).

Based on that form for the remaining nine, we would finish on 71 points, which is not far off, so maybe 1 extra win could be enough.

The last six seasons in League One, more than 74 points has never been needed for the play-offs and, indeed, as few as 69 and 71 have been enough.

Going by the points the teams above us already have I would be suprised if 6th spot this season was as low as 71 points.
That would mean Millwall only picking up 13 points from 11 games or Bradford only 8 points from 8 games.

 

[londonblue]

One game in hand.

I must be going blind. You are, of course, correct...

 

[Angell Delight]

My own thoughts are that it will be difficult now, much more so than a few weeks ago due to our nice cushion between ourselves and the chasing pack being eroded by our poor recent results. We're still in with a chance but I do fear we'll just miss out. Hope I'm wrong but whatever happens the boys and Brown have done a fantastic job this season.

 

[Jai]

My own thoughts are that it will be difficult now, much more so than a few weeks ago due to our nice cushion between ourselves and the chasing pack being eroded by our poor recent results. We're still in with a chance but I do fear we'll just miss out. Hope I'm wrong but whatever happens the boys and Brown have done a fantastic job this season.

And if we win on Saturday, we'll have beaten our points total for last season.

 

[Kevin Hogg]

I hope you are correct...and you could be.
Realistically I think it is a tough ask to make top six..but you never know.
If we fall short this year - I am optimistic we can challenge from the start next season...barring massive change.
Am very positive that we are heading in the right direction.

 

[enfieldblue]

And if we win on Saturday, we'll have beaten our points total for last season.

That was the fact I was looking for. 2 positions higher than this time last year, 6 more goals scored (3 more n we beat last years total), same conceded, average attendance up 130 on last years final average + still got Bolton to come.

I was going to complain to the mods about the blatant positivity of this thread but seem to have added to it:smile: I apologise:sad:

 

[united we stand]

I was taking a look at the final fixtures to see where we could catch up other sides. Sheffield are too far away , Walsall will be out of the running after Saturday (hopefully) but Oxford could be in the mix with their games in hand- however they have to play 5 out of the current top six


Millwall have games in hand , but have got to play 5 of the teams looking to be in the top 6. Some of the teams above us will drop points just by virtual of having to play each other which is clearly good news.

Top 7 teams playing each other minus Sheffield+ Oxford


Southend play Bolton
Bradford play Scunthorpe, Sheffield, BR , Oxford
Millwall play Sheffield, Scunthorpe, Oxford, BR , Fleetwood
Scunthorpe play Oxford, Bradford, Millwall, Bolton
Bolton play Oxford, Southend, Scunthorpe
Fleetwood play Oxford, Millwall
Oxford play Scunthorpe, Bolton< Fleetwood, Bradford, Millwall

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Was looking at the situation after Christmas and remember thinking that two points a game average would easily give us a play-off place and one, at that time could still dream of automatics. We now find ourselves in Mid-March and in 2017 we have faded, accumulating only18 points from 13 games, thus we are eight points short. Realistically, automatics are now out of our reach but if we could get back on target NOW i.e. 18 points from the last nine fixtures, play-offs should still be possible. Really, there is no more room for error. We can just about manage with getting four points from Walsall and Wimbledon, although it would leave us under the 2 points a game target for March. Anything less than that and we enter into play-off la la land.............spending more time looking to see whether others are faltering (and thinking of next season) rather than concentrating on our own objectives.

 

[leeblue]

To be in the mix at this time of the season is always a big positive. Head says we will miss out. Heart says I can't wait for the trips to all these big clubs In the championship next season

 

[Shrimp and two veg]

My long supporting mate once said to me.. "Southend never do anything the easy way" and i therefore expect it to go down to the very last game of the season.

 

[USAShrimper]

It's definitely doable with the squad we have. Will be close though.

 

[Floval Flyer]

Run in is as follows;

SOUTHEND; Walsall (h), Wimbledon (a), Oldham (h), Bolton (h), Charlton (a), Chesterfield (a), MK Dons (h), Shrewsbury (a), Bury (h).

BRADFORD: Swindon (h), Scunthorpe (a), Walsall (h), Bury (a), Oxford (h), Sheff Utd (a), Wimbledon (h), Rochdale (a)

SCUNTHORPE: Oxford (a), Bradford h), Millwall (a), Bolton (h), MK Dons (a), Chesterfield (h), Swindon (a), Coventry (h)

SCUM: Bury (h), Rochdale (a), Swindon (a), Sheff Utd (a), Scunthorpe (h), Shrewsbury (a), Gilligham (a), Northampton (h), Fleetwood (a), Oxford (h), Bristol Rov (a)

Looking at Scunthorpe's next 4 and also considering Bradford drop in form I reckon we have a chance. Critical games are Bolton home and Shrewsbury away (Oh, and the other 7 tbh...). Also the Scum have a game every 3 or 4 days over the next 5 weeks!