League 2 teams unofficially rated

[southendkid]

Not sure what forum this should be in

http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/football_dectech/rankings.php

click 'divisions, england, league 2' if it doesn't come up
found this at clarkeonenil of all places, but its not actually made by him so you'll be pleased to see we're not bottom. how accurate do you think this is?

Compared to all english league teams in the country we are rated 10/100, 71/100 for league 2 and 6/100 for all European teams that have been rated

 

[EastStandBlue]

I saw the first page and it had given Chelsea, who's central defence consists of the lumbering John Terry, the lumbering Alex and the perma-knacked Ivanovic, a maximum defence rating, whilst also giving Arsenal a higher attack rating than Manchester United.

Not quite sure what to make of this, now...

I'm also not sure how our attack rating is 75, our defence rating is 76, yet our overall rating is 71.

 

[southendkid]

Just noticed in international ratings England are rated 4th in the world :D

 

[Pubey]

lol at Sunderland having the worst attack in the PL.

 

[Davros]

Barcelona have a 100% chance of making the second round of the champions league. Why they probably will, 100% is pure bollox as there is no such thing as a sporting certainty

 

[PrawNZ]

Barca lost to new boys Hurcules the other day at home!

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Barcelona have a 100% chance of making the second round of the champions league. Why they probably will, 100% is pure bollox as there is no such thing as a sporting certainty

The News Of The World has evidence to suggest otherwise......

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

Barcelona have a 100% chance of making the second round of the champions league. Why they probably will, 100% is pure bollox as there is no such thing as a sporting certainty

Have you seen the other teams in their group? 100% is a certainy all right starting tonight with a home win against Valverde's Greeks.
Visça Espanyol.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I may have misread this, but I think some people may be confusing this with a rating of how good those teams are: in attack, in defence, or overall?

I don't think it is - I think its a rating of how those teams have performed this season, i.e. the attack rating would look at league games so far and those who have scored more goals, possibly weighted according to how many attacking players have contributed goals/assists etc, possibly with adjustments for the type of goal or whether it was scored from open play. For the overall rating I think some additional factors may come into play such as possession, discipline, passing, ball retention etc.

I think its no surprise therefore that this mirrors the actual league table pretty closely. If these had been ratings of ability/potential on paper, I'd agree that the examples mentioned above would be barking...

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Just noticed in international ratings England are rated 4th in the world :D

Again, I think this may be on performances 'this season', so probably since the start of August. For England our decent start to the qualifiers would see us doing well here. Bonkers and misleading, but there you go! :happy:

 

[southendkid]

Except Stevenage are ranked 1st, yet are 18th in the league, they must be basing it off more than just this season

 

[Napster]

Interesting, you can predict Southend's future games as well. Home to the Gills it's more likely to be 1-0 or 0-0

Lump on!

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Except Stevenage are ranked 1st, yet are 18th in the league, they must be basing it off more than just this season

Maybe their webmaster is a Stevenage fan? ;)

 

[Pubey]

I may have misread this, but I think some people may be confusing this with a rating of how good those teams are: in attack, in defence, or overall?

I don't think it is - I think its a rating of how those teams have performed this season, i.e. the attack rating would look at league games so far and those who have scored more goals, possibly weighted according to how many attacking players have contributed goals/assists etc, possibly with adjustments for the type of goal or whether it was scored from open play. For the overall rating I think some additional factors may come into play such as possession, discipline, passing, ball retention etc.

I think its no surprise therefore that this mirrors the actual league table pretty closely. If these had been ratings of ability/potential on paper, I'd agree that the examples mentioned above would be barking...

You're probably right, however I'm struggling with the face validity of their results. Sunderland (4 goals this season, 3 from strikers and an Oggy) have apparently a worse 'attack' to Wigan (2 goals, 1 from a striker). With only 4 games played the estimates will be very sensitive, but it currently seems like their calculations have been weighted too much by the covariates you suggest may be an influence.

 

[twobob]

Their website says the following:

"
Welcome to the Predictor website. The pages within provide up to date forecasts and ranking systems for English club football. The forecasts and rankings are generated by a statistical model of football matches, the input to which is more than five years worth of football scores incorporating over 10,000 games.

The Model
Our statistical model uses time-weighted shots and goals data to generate an attack and defence ranking for each club. The different divisions are calibrated by using data from cup matches. The number of goals scored by a club in a match depends on the attack rating of the club and the defence rating of the opposition. There is also a home advantage rating, which allows for the fact that clubs score more goals when playing at home.
Here's an example:
Home team Fulham: Attack = 0.8, Defence = 1.1.
Away team Liverpool: Attack = 1.5, Defence = 0.7.
Home advantage = 1.4.

Average number of Fulham goals = 0.8*0.7*1.4 = 0.784
Average number of Liverpool goals = 1.7*1.1 = 1.870

Converting this goal average into a distribution of goal outcomes is achieved a probability distribution. The probability distribution gives the chance of Liverpool scoring a certain number of goals given their Average number of goals. e.g.
Probability Liverpool score 0 goals = 15%
Probability Liverpool score 1 goals = 29%
Probability Liverpool score 2 goals = 27% etc.

Probability Fulham score 0 goals = 46%
Probability Fulham score 1 goals = 36%
Probability Fulham score 2 goals = 14% etc.

Now we can calculate the probability of a 0-0 draw. It's 15%*46% = 6.9%. Once we can calculate the chance of a particular score, it is easy to calculate the chance of a home win / draw / away win.

What's Not Included
At the moment, the model does not incorporate team news, and so our predictions do not take into account the fact that, for example, John Terry is injured or Wayne Rooney is suspended. The "Game Settings" option in the Game Simulator allows users to adjust the team strength to account for injuries suspensions etc.
We use UEFA Cup and Champions League results to calibrate the strength of teams across different leagues. This lets you simulate a match between two European clubs from many major leagues.""


As it's spread over 5 years I can't see how it can predict anything based on the current teams.

 

[southendkid]

As it's spread over 5 years I can't see how it can predict anything based on the current teams.

So this is actually how Tilson's team would have coped in league 2?

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

5 years is a long time, and its probably quite accurate for the top teams, as they rarely change, ie, Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Barcelona, Real Madrid etc. are always top quarter of their division and always (nearly) get to the later stages of cups.

For Lower league teams its a bit naff, as in 5 years, we have had,

Championship Title Winning
Relegation
Losing in Play Off
Just missing play off
Relegation

So a real mixed bag, and probably not worth much.

Stevenage are top as they have been there or there abouts in the conference for the last 5 years 6th, 8th, 6th, 5th, 1st so no poor seasons at all.

 

[southendkid]

But surely the conference is a lower level of competition? Its flawed to say the least