March: Make or Break?

[ryansm05]

Four of our six games this month are away (Wimbledon, D&R, Burton and Bury) with tough games at home to Wycombe and an unpredictable Cambridge. If we can get through this period with 11/12 points and taking something at Burton, we could be set up nicely for April and the final game in May against Morecambe. What should we realistically be aiming for from the next six to cement an automatic push?

 

[wakes123]

I think 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats should see us in automatics - that will be 81 points (will obviously be helpful if 2 of those wins were against Wycombe and Luton).

Much easier said than done though.

 

[wakes123]

Four of our six games this month are away (Wimbledon, D&R, Burton and Bury) with tough games at home to Wycombe and an unpredictable Cambridge. If we can get through this period with 11/12 points and taking something at Burton, we could be set up nicely for April and the final game in May against Morecambe. What should we realistically be aiming for from the next six to cement an automatic push?

View attachment 3095

As for March, we need to be aiming for a minimum of 10 points I think, to have a chance.

 

[ryansm05]

In that case you would say Wimbledon, D&R and Cambridge are minimum of 7pts? I think Bury and Burton will be extremely tough but we should certainly be optimistic. I'm just worried that we get cast too far adrift come Mansfield/Hartlepool: the playoffs are all too depressing.

That said, I'm still feeling surprisingly positive. We definitely have one of the stronger squads in the league and Brown really needs to get us out of this god awful league for his sake as well as ours.

 

[shrimper-james]

I think the Carlisle match was the start of something good, but we have to get a good result against Wycombe and Burton to be serious contenders

 

[Gt Yarmouth Shrimper]

In that case you would say Wimbledon, D&R and Cambridge are minimum of 7pts? I think Bury and Burton will be extremely tough but we should certainly be optimistic. I'm just worried that we get cast too far adrift come Mansfield/Hartlepool: the playoffs are all too depressing.

That said, I'm still feeling surprisingly positive. We definitely have one of the stronger squads in the league and Brown really needs to get us out of this god awful league for his sake as well as ours.

What makes you say this????

 

[united we stand]

I think 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats should see us in automatics - that will be 81 points (will obviously be helpful if 2 of those wins were against Wycombe and Luton).

Much easier said than done though.

You Are banking on the form of at least two sides above us dropping. If the form of the top 4 to date continues, or follows the last 10 games then 81 points will not do it, especially with our goal average. We need 2 points a game from last Saturday to end of season and/or other teams to drop of badly

 

[manor15]

I don't think you can say that it's as simple as 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses etc. If the 3 losses are at Wycombe, Burton and Luton then they are all effectively "6-pointer"s and far more damaging than a loss to say Dagenham could be.

 

[chapperzUK]

You Are banking on the form of at least two sides above us dropping. If the form of the top 4 to date continues, or follows the last 10 games then 81 points will not do it, especially with our goal average. We need 2 points a game from last Saturday to end of season and/or other teams to drop of badly

Based on current form (last 10 games):

Burton - 18 points
Shrewsbury - 17 points
Wycombe - 16 points
Luton - 16 points
SUFC - 18 points

If carrying on form until end of season (points rounded down):

1. Burton 85 points (64 + 21 points on form)
2. Shrewsbury 83 (61 + 22 points on form)
3. Wycombe 80 (60 + 20 points on form)
4. SUFC 80 (57 + 23 points on form)
5. Luton 78 (58 + 20 points on form)

 

[Jam_Man]

What makes you say this????

Away teams bringing 32 fans for a start.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

I think 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats should see us in automatics - that will be 81 points (will obviously be helpful if 2 of those wins were against Wycombe and Luton).

Much easier said than done though.

I seem to remember that 83 points wasn't enough a few seasons ago. I set a target of 85 at the start of the year, which entailed two points a game. We're just a couple of points short of that and we may well not need that insurance when we come to the end of the season. Thus March is simple............average two points a game.......12 points required, whoever we get them from. A bad March could have catastrophic consequences regarding hopes for automatic promotion. For example, if we amass nine points from a possible eighteen, we'd require two and a half points average for the last seven and if we take only six we would need.........bye-bye automatics........ to win all of our remaining 7 games!
So, in conclusion, I don't think March will be 'make' as far as automatics are concerned but it CERTAINLY could end up as 'break.'

 

[Jam_Man]

I seem to remember that 83 points wasn't enough a few seasons ago.'

Funnily enough (or not so funny as it went) the one year we got it.

If you go back over the years 83 points would get you promoted most of the time, and win the league on a number of occassions.

 

[united we stand]

Based on current form (last 10 games):

Burton - 18 points
Shrewsbury - 17 points
Wycombe - 16 points
Luton - 16 points
SUFC - 18 points

If carrying on form until end of season (points rounded down):

1. Burton 85 points (64 + 21 points on form)
2. Shrewsbury 83 (61 + 22 points on form)
3. Wycombe 80 (60 + 20 points on form)
4. SUFC 80 (57 + 23 points on form)
5. Luton 78 (58 + 20 points on form)

You have rounded down , I have rounded up if over 0.5 that's the difference , hence I have Wycombe on 81 points . Plus as I said above, if the top teams actually continue their form to date, rather than form over the last 10 matches then the situation is actually worse (Burton same 87, Shrewbury 8, Wycombe 84, Luton 81)- again rounding up if above 0.5

 

[wakes123]

I don't think you can say that it's as simple as 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses etc. If the 3 losses are at Wycombe, Burton and Luton then they are all effectively "6-pointer"s and far more damaging than a loss to say Dagenham could be.

I didn't say it's as simple as this - that's why I used words like 'think' and 'should see us.' And that's why I also said will be helpful if the wins were against Wycombe and Luton.

Obviously no one knows what's going to happen, that's the beauty of the game, it's just my prediction and opinion that 81 points will just be enough.

 

[wakes123]

I seem to remember that 83 points wasn't enough a few seasons ago. I set a target of 85 at the start of the year, which entailed two points a game. We're just a couple of points short of that and we may well not need that insurance when we come to the end of the season. Thus March is simple............average two points a game.......12 points required, whoever we get them from. A bad March could have catastrophic consequences regarding hopes for automatic promotion. For example, if we amass nine points from a possible eighteen, we'd require two and a half points average for the last seven and if we take only six we would need.........bye-bye automatics........ to win all of our remaining 7 games!
So, in conclusion, I don't think March will be 'make' as far as automatics are concerned but it CERTAINLY could end up as 'break.'

I'm pretty sure that if a team gets 83 points this year they will be promoted automatically.

I'd be willing to put a small friendly wager on it

 

[manor15]

I didn't say it's as simple as this - that's why I used words like 'think' and 'should see us.' And that's why I also said will be helpful if the wins were against Wycombe and Luton.

Obviously no one knows what's going to happen, that's the beauty of the game, it's just my prediction and opinion that 81 points will just be enough.

Agreed, was by no means meant as a criticism, more a comment on how unpredictable it is even at this stage of the season. We've got quite a tough run of fixtures between us and the end of the season and we aren't the only ones. 81 points would seem enough but as we learnt under Sturrock, having 83 wasn't enough in 2012 and this year anything could happen with 5 teams up there competing.

Interestingly just looked at the league table for that season under Sturrock. Of the top 12 in the table, we are one of only 4 teams still in League 2 alongside Shrewsbury (who have been up and come back), Oxford and Cheltenham. Rotherham are in the Championship, Torquay (who were only 2 points behind us) are in the Conference along with Aldershot, leaving Gillingham, Crawley, Swindon, Crewe and Port Vale who are all in League 1.

 

[wakes123]

Agreed, was by no means meant as a criticism, more a comment on how unpredictable it is even at this stage of the season. We've got quite a tough run of fixtures between us and the end of the season and we aren't the only ones. 81 points would seem enough but as we learnt under Sturrock, having 83 wasn't enough in 2012 and this year anything could happen with 5 teams up there competing.

Interestingly just looked at the league table for that season under Sturrock. Of the top 12 in the table, we are one of only 4 teams still in League 2 alongside Shrewsbury (who have been up and come back), Oxford and Cheltenham. Rotherham are in the Championship, Torquay (who were only 2 points behind us) are in the Conference along with Aldershot, leaving Gillingham, Crawley, Swindon, Crewe and Port Vale who are all in League 1.

Yeah will be interesting to see what happens, Bury now flying into the mix with I think 4 wins in a row.

Your last paragraph is depressing!! I guess it shows most of the good teams that year found a way to get to league 1 either that season, or in the next 2 seasons...we haven't been able to for whatever reason (saying that, at least we're not in the situation Torquay are in, who are by no means a small club).

 

[ryansm05]

Yeah will be interesting to see what happens, Bury now flying into the mix with I think 4 wins in a row.

Your last paragraph is depressing!! I guess it shows most of the good teams that year found a way to get to league 1 either that season, or in the next 2 seasons...we haven't been able to for whatever reason (saying that, at least we're not in the situation Torquay are in, who are by no means a small club).

Every season a team comes from adrift and finds form in the second half of the season; worryingly that appears to be Bury this season. Crewe when we were under Sturrock a few years back (when Powell tore us to shreds) is a prime example!

 

[Liam AAS]

I have to say that only 2 teams in the top 10 are showing any kind of form (Northampton and Bury). We can still make up ground but need to make it count against Wycome on Saturday.

 

[yogi bear up the cagire]

Opportunity missed last Saturday. Needless to say that wins against Daggers and Cambridge are imperative but if we want te really get our automatic promotion hopes back on track, we need a win at either Burton or Bury.........which is the most likely!???:smile: