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Play-offs 2022/23 - Goals For & Against

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Getting into the play-offs in the forthcoming 2022/23 season will quite simply mean scoring a shed load more goals than we concede.



Goals scored

Looking at the top 8 for the season just finished gives the following numbers:-

Stockport 87

Wrexham 91

Solihull Moors 83

Halifax 62

Notts County 81

Grimsby 68

Chesterfield 69

That gives an average of 77. Highest Wrexham, lowest Halifax.

To me, the numbers suggest that Southend needs to score at least 70 to 75 goals next season to be in the play-offs. 80 should see us well placed.

[Note: This takes into account an increase of 1 in the teams in the division.]
 
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Goals Against

The average goals conceded for the teams above was 45. Halifax with the lowest 35 and then Stockport 38. That works out as conceding slightly less than 1 goal per game.
 
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So there it is; 46 games, over 4,000 minutes of play …………. and, in a nutshell, all we have to do is score between 1½ & 2 goals per game and only concede 1. Football is a simple game really.


But where are those goals going to come from?

Southend United scored 45 goals in the season past and finished mid-table. Only 3 other teams scored less – and two of those teams were relegated.
 

Smiffy

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Funny enough me and @Bexley Blue were having this very same chat this morning.

We weren't tight enough at the back, especially Pre-Kev/Lopata who helped to address that a bit. As you say we weren't ruthless up top enough either all season.

Where are the goals coming from with what we have is a fair question.

I'd back Murphy for 15-20 goals, but there are concerns over his fitness. Will we get 40 games out of him?...I'd say not unfortunately.

Cards, double figures would be a decent return out of him. But again, will he will remain fit enough to achieve that?

Dalby, he'll probably remain the most injury free of the attacking options, a double figure return would be a fair assumption from him again.

Powell, needs a good pre-season to get his confidence up. Has the potential to hit double figures but needs a solid run in the team and take his chances when he gets them. His pace should destroy defences but needs to work on finishing.

Mooney, hit double figures for Alty last season from a wide right position. Hopefully he can do the same for us. Hopefully he is eager to impress and does the business.

Bridge, more of a creator for me and I like him in a wide left role. He's capable of pushing towards double figures I think if he is played in a more attacking role, rather than having to worry about doing the dirty defensive work. But again only if he remains fit.

Husin, looks a player to me. But not sure he's going to be that CM type that gets a huge amount of goals. Hopefully he will chip in with his fair share. I'd suggest he will be the one who scores worldy's only.

So all that said, I do personally feel we are missing that one out and out put your house on it 20 goal striker which could be the difference between an ok season and a great one. But, most clubs are in the market for one of those, they are hot property and come at a price. Have we got the resources to obtain the mythical 20 goal man is the question? I'm sure we'd all like one.

I'd add we need some goals from CM along with some muscle in there and the defenders need to chip in with goals as well for good measure. But again, it comes down to resource. They are hot property and in high demand.

I'm sure there will be some decent attacking names on the football dept hit-list. Let's hope we can get one or two of them over the line to give us the best chance possible of hitting 70+ goals. But it may take some time as we wait and attempt to fight off big competition.
 

Massimo Giovanni

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I agree with the goal prospects put by @Smiffy . I think those named are all having an eye, and intention on goal, apart from Bridge who is, imo, more concerned with providing AND I hope he is being told to get more on the score sheet himself.
Our set pieces last season were generally poor, both as attack or defending them. With regular line ups, injuryfree runs of games this should be easy to make progress with.
Pens will undoubtedly be an area that is addressed clearly.
 

Yorkshire Blue

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So there it is; 46 games, over 4,000 minutes of play …………. and, in a nutshell, all we have to do is score between 1½ & 2 goals per game and only concede 1. Football is a simple game really.


But where are those goals going to come from?

Southend United scored 45 goals in the season past and finished mid-table. Only 3 other teams scored less – and two of those teams were relegated.

Ok, how about something like

Cardwell 14
Dalby 12
Mooney 11
Murphy 7
Husin 6
Powell 4
Bridge 4
Clifford 3
Hobson 3
Demi 2
Wood 2
Miley 1
Ralph 1
Lomas 1
Kensdale 1
Own goals 2

That would be 75 goals there.

Those amounts all seem individually achievable. Those players (so not including own goals) actually scored 71 league goals between them last season and there’s an extra 2 league games.

I’ve assumed Cardwell takes pens - if he doesn’t maybe bump a few off him and add them elsewhere. His is the biggest increase from his tally last season as he’s up 4. He’d scored 7 before joining us and added a further 3 for us.
 

Smiffy

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Ok, how about something like

Cardwell 14
Dalby 12
Mooney 11
Murphy 7
Husin 6
Powell 4
Bridge 4
Clifford 3
Hobson 3
Demi 2
Wood 2
Miley 1
Ralph 1
Lomas 1
Kensdale 1
Own goals 2

That would be 75 goals there.

Those amounts all seem individually achievable. Those players (so not including own goals) actually scored 71 league goals between them last season and there’s an extra 2 league games.

I’ve assumed Cardwell takes pens - if he doesn’t maybe bump a few off him and add them elsewhere. His is the biggest increase from his tally last season as he’s up 4. He’d scored 7 before joining us and added a further 3 for us.
I think you are being very generous there Yorkie. But it’s all about opinions. Hoping you are right of course, but I feel we are still a top striker away from hitting the figures required. Along with further significant and extra contributions from those already here, compared to what they did last season.

I look at Wrexham, Chesterfield, Notts, Daggers, Solihull and perhaps even Dorking and a couple of others and feel they are better equipped than us in the attacking dept?
 
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Some very good figures there.

I say we scored 45 last season - but does any know how many we had scored (or even or goal difference) as at the end of the December? (i.e. after the draw with Bromley).

I wonder if our performance from January onwards would provide more clues as to our potential for the coming season.
 
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I've never been convinced by the need for a 20+ striker - true, it's very good if you have one but also a little bit of a risk if they become injured (or a transfer target from the league(s) above).

Instead I would prefer to have a range of strikers knocking in the goals and causing difficulties for the opposing defence.

That way, you get more midfielders pushing forward & scoring and taking the pressure off the rest of the team ............. and you get more defenders scoring from either corners or dead ball situations.

So, for me, it is key that we start getting midfielders (Bridge, Powell, Husin) putting away chances whenever possible.
 

Yorkshire Blue

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I think you are being very generous there Yorkie. But it’s all about opinions. Hoping you are right of course, but I feel we are still a top striker away from hitting the figures required. Along with further significant and extra contributions from those already here, compared to what they did last season.

I look at Wrexham, Chesterfield, Notts, Daggers and perhaps even Dorking and a couple of others and feel they are better equipped than us in the attacking dept?
Who do you think I’m being generous to?

Grimsby got promoted with a top scorer with 14 during the regular season.

They had 20 different scorers and only one player in double figures.

If we’re to get promoted that’s what we’ll need to do.

I think we’re actually lacking creativity more than finishing. Hopefully Mooney and Bridge running at teams can open them up a bit more than last season when teams just had to sit two men on Bridge and wait for Will Atkinson to play someone into a worse position.
 

Yorkshire Blue

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This.

I'm with you Yorkshire Blue.
Yep, it’s very, very rare that a team is “just” missing a 20 goal a season striker.

Invariably what it is is that the team creates very little in the way of chances and people misdiagnose this as a lack of a goalscorer. Forwards tend to score 20 goals a season when they’re in a good team playing to their strengths and get confident. They’re often the same player who struggled to score at their previous clubs but are transformed when put in a better situation.

If you want to score more goals create more chances!
 

Smiffy

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Who do you think I’m being generous to?

Grimsby got promoted with a top scorer with 14 during the regular season.

They had 20 different scorers and only one player in double figures.

If we’re to get promoted that’s what we’ll need to do.

I think we’re actually lacking creativity more than finishing. Hopefully Mooney and Bridge running at teams can open them up a bit more than last season when teams just had to sit two men on Bridge and wait for Will Atkinson to play someone into a worse position.
Cards I’d be surprised if he gets 14 that you hope for. Even with pens. That’s not to suggest he’s not capable of that, my concern as I said would surround his fitness. Can he get the minutes required to hit those numbers? Let’s hope so…

The rest of the players and figures you mention would for me require them to be at the top of their games. Again not to say they cannot achieve that, but it needs a lot of things to fall right, in particular their minutes on the pitch. This has been a huge issue of ours for a number of seasons. Hopefully that’s now being addressed and will result in less players on the treatment table. That’s my biggest concern that’s all.

I pray you are correct of course. But I’d feel a little more comfortable with another striker and certainly a proper central creator and general through the door. Fair?
 

Yorkshire Blue

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Cards I’d be surprised if he gets 14 that you hope for. Even with pens. That’s not to suggest he’s not capable of that, my concern as I said would surround his fitness. Can he get the minutes required to hit those numbers? Let’s hope so…

The rest of the players and figures you mention would for me require them to be at the top of their games. Again not to say they cannot achieve that, but it needs a lot of things to fall right, in particular their minutes on the pitch. This has been a huge issue of ours for a number of seasons. Hopefully that’s now being addressed and will result in less players on the treatment table. That’s my biggest concern that’s all.

I pray you are correct of course. But I’d feel a little more comfortable with another striker and certainly a proper central creator and general through the door. Fair?
Is Cards not expected to be fit to start the season?

If someone goes down injured that opens up opportunities for others. Maybe Murphy or Powell gets another 5 instead?

And of course our squad on opening day isn’t going to be the squad that finishes the season. If players get injured we can loan in replacements or even make permanent signings mid-season. Maybe next year’s Matt Dennis doesn’t join until January and scores 7?

I see the club are advertising for a medical person again. This may be an area where a bit of investment reaps a reward.
 

brigg blue

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I reckon Dalbs could be our top scorer next season and really kick on, him alongside Cards with Mooney, Bridge and Powell providing / chipping in is a very strong set of forward options, that's without Murphy's contributions too
 

Lincoln Shrimp

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Some good points raised by all. It's all about finding that magic formula and having a good deal of luck with injuries etc.
If Grimsby can get promoted with Ryan Taylor leading the line then it gives me hope that we can find a winning formula!

I understood that Cardwell was going to be missing until at least the end of August with his ligament injury.
We need another striker in before we kick off, that much is clear.
 

Chapperz

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The mythical 20-goal a season striker is obviously what everyone wants, but I'd rather have half a squad capable of double figures. If anything happens to that striker (see Chesterfield last season after Tshimanga's injury), then there is a big hole (unless you are Wrexham/Notts County and have the budget for multiple top strikers).

All of our strikers (Murphy, Dalby, Cardwell, Powell, Mooney) are capable of having a double figure goalscoring season. However, I'm not convinced some of them will consistently reach that figure season after season. One good season can come down to luck with finishing, chances falling your way (see Dennis' many tap-ins) and staying fit throughout the season. It also depends on service from other players, Bridge will look to be the main outlet and Husin could also help from the middle. Powell and Mooney are more shot creators for themselves through dribbling than passes to team-mates.

Out of the rest of the team, Bridge and Husin could be capable of half a dozen at most. Can't see anyone else in the current team getting more than 3.

If Ralph/Clifford can step up with supply from the left and we get a good attacking wing back on the right with a central midfielder with creativity, then we will be in a much better position than last season to create those chances. Jack Wood might be an option, but I think he will be having his game time slowly increased throughout the season and have a greater impact towards the end of the season.
 

Leigh_Seasider

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I think Murphy, Cardwell and Dalby are all capable of getting on the end of chances. Supply from midfield and from the flanks is vital and the area I think we’ll be concentrating on most. Delivery of set pieces and getting men in the box to take advantage will be key also. Hobson has proved a decent target for set pieces, good for maybe 5/6 goals a season, being optimistic. Creative attacking wing backs/midfielders and good passers of the ball as well as physical ball winners in the centre of the park and I think we’ll be fine.
 
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Right - I have counted that we scored 29 times in the 25 games from January onwards (and consequently only 16 times in the previous 19 games).

That tallies with the massive improvement in our league position during 2022.

And that gives a scoring rate of 1.16 per game. In a number of those games we "should" have scored quite a few more times (well, we had the chances & were dominant) so I am thinking we should "up" that figure & be more optimistic.

That would point towards achieving around 60 goals for the team we had ending the 2021/22 season - if we were a bit more polished infront of goal.

So, only another 20 or so goals would be required then?
 
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