Prediction Time

[Matt the Shrimp]

So, folks, what are your predictions for how things will look on May 7th?

You don't necessarily need to go into all the detail I've gone into below; you can just come up with a basic summary and/or choose the option in the poll which you think most closely reflects how you think it will go.

Here are my thoughts on how the seats will pan out - my prediction is in brackets:

Wales - 40 (Plaid - 4; LD - 5; Cons - 4; Ind - 1; Lab - 26)
Scotland - 59 (LD - 10; SNP - 6; Cons - 3; Lab - 40)
N. Ireland - 18 (DUP - 8; SF - 5; SDLP - 3; UUP - 1; Ind - 1)
England - 533 (Green - 1; Ind - 1; LD - 64; Lab - 175; Cons - 292)

Totals:

Cons - 299
Lab - 241
LD - 79
DUP - 8
SNP - 6
SF - 5
Plaid - 4
Ind - 3
SDLP - 3
Green - 1
UUP - 1

What I don't know - because this would represent complete uncharted territory - is whether Cameron would try to form a government; or whether he would be so far short of a working majority (realistically, he'd be about 35 short of where he would need to be) that a Lib-Lab pact would instead be given the chance to govern.

As for whether a Lib-Con coalition would work, I'm not sure - not least because I think the LDs would want (a) a guaranteed referendum on PR within the first 18 months; and (b) some senior cabinet posts (Vince for chancellor?). I'm not sure Cameron would be willing to give the LDs either.

So, over to you folks - gaze into those crystal balls... tell me what you think.

Matt

PS If you're wondering... I haven't left the BNP out maliciously. I don't think Griffin will beat Hodge; but I do think they may take the council - which, ultimately, is what they're really after.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Tories to gain a small majority (10-15). I think the poll from the marginals the other week was significant, and as stated in the other thread, I can see the Lib Dem 30% ratings being soft i.e when it comes to the crunch, they'll vote Tory or Labour.

If the Tories gain a majority of less than 10, there'll be another election in 6 months time....

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Here are my thoughts on how the seats will pan out - my prediction is in brackets:

Wales - 40 (Plaid - 4; LD - 5; Cons - 4; Ind - 1; Lab - 26)
Scotland - 59 (LD - 10; SNP - 6; Cons - 3; Lab - 40)
N. Ireland - 18 (DUP - 8; SF - 5; SDLP - 3; UUP - 1; Ind - 1)
England - 533 (Green - 1; Ind - 1; LD - 64; Lab - 175; Cons - 292)

Totals:

Cons - 299
Lab - 241
LD - 79
DUP - 8
SNP - 6
SF - 5
Plaid - 4
Ind - 3
SDLP - 3
Green - 1
UUP - 1

What I don't know - because this would represent complete uncharted territory - is whether Cameron would try to form a government; or whether he would be so far short of a working majority (realistically, he'd be about 35 short of where he would need to be) that a Lib-Lab pact would instead be given the chance to govern.

As for whether a Lib-Con coalition would work, I'm not sure - not least because I think the LDs would want (a) a guaranteed referendum on PR within the first 18 months; and (b) some senior cabinet posts (Vince for chancellor?). I'm not sure Cameron would be willing to give the LDs either.

So, over to you folks - gaze into those crystal balls... tell me what you think.

Matt

PS If you're wondering... I haven't left the BNP out maliciously. I don't think Griffin will beat Hodge; but I do think they may take the council - which, ultimately, is what they're really after.

On your figures Matt, the Tories could try to form a government with out any help from the Lib Dems. If they could get all of the others to vote with them, they will have a majority of 10, and as the party with the most seats would be entitled to have 1st crack at it. (I think)

 

[canveyshrimper]

Tories to gain a small majority (10-15). I think the poll from the marginals the other week was significant, and as stated in the other thread, I can see the Lib Dem 30% ratings being soft i.e when it comes to the crunch, they'll vote Tory or Labour.

If the Tories gain a majority of less than 10, there'll be another election in 6 months time....

If the Tories have a 10 seat majority then they don't have to seek another election for the duration of this Parliament (5 years), as in effect they should have enough seats to get their legislation voted through. Also I'm not sure if the lectorate would be keen on a majority government going to the polls so soon after receiving a mandate to govern however small.

However if a party wins and tries to govern as a minority then almost certainly we'll have another election in November.

I think that the Tories will win the most seats, and then depending how short they are of a majority will be the horse trading. If they are 5 or so short then they'll look to the DUP & UUP MP's who by tradition (and name) are aligned to the Tories. If they are way short then they'll have to look to the Lib-Dems, I don't see Cameron giving the "saintly" Vince Cable the job of Chancellor, but I can see him giving way on electoral reform, and possibly Clegg will get a cabinet post, something harmless like Leader of the House, but not one of the big 3 offices of state.

One possibility that could come out of this is that Labour may implode and become the third party behind the Lib-Dems.

I also agree with Matt's assessment of the BNP, Hodge will retain Barking, but the BNP want control of the council.

Also Matt who is your Independent MP in England? Is it Bon Spink?

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

On your figures Matt, the Tories could try to form a government with out any help from the Lib Dems. If they could get all of the others to vote with them, they will have a majority of 10, and as the party with the most seats would be entitled to have 1st crack at it. (I think)

Good luck to the Tories trying to strike a deal with the Scottish Nationalist Party, Plaid Cymru, the Greens, the SDLP and (non-sitting) Sinn Fein!

:D

Of the minority parties, there's even got to be a doubt whether the DUP would ally with the Tories. The only natural allies the Tories will have are Lady Hermon (ex-UUP, one of the Independents) and the UUP. My other two independents are Dr. Taylor in Wyre Forest, and the ex-Labour chap in Blaenau Gwent - neither of whom will have much truck with the Tories.

Add to that the fact that Bercow can't vote, and the Tories are looking at a total of 300 votes to play with - still 23 short of an actual majority, and probably about 35 short of a viable working majority.

 

[canveyshrimper]

Tories to gain a small majority (10-15). I think the poll from the marginals the other week was significant, and as stated in the other thread, I can see the Lib Dem 30% ratings being soft i.e when it comes to the crunch, they'll vote Tory or Labour.

If the Tories gain a majority of less than 10, there'll be another election in 6 months time....

As PM Brown could have first crack of the whip to form a Government. This rather mirrors 1974 when IIRC Heath as PM was not able to form a Government, but Wilson with backing from the minority parties was.

On Matt's figures Labour could form a Government with the backing of the Lib-Dems, SNP & PC, but that to me looks rather tenuous.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Also Matt who is your Independent MP in England? Is it Bon Spink?

No, theoretically it's Dr. Taylor in Wyre Forest. Either he or Bob Spink are the likeliest English independents to win. I don't think Esther Rancid or the radio chappy will win in Luton South.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

If they are way short then they'll have to look to the Lib-Dems, I don't see Cameron giving the "saintly" Vince Cable the job of Chancellor, but I can see him giving way on electoral reform, and possibly Clegg will get a cabinet post, something harmless like Leader of the House, but not one of the big 3 offices of state.

That's the outcome I think most likely. I reckon they'll have to give Clegg something more than merely ceremonial; however, they could give him one of the really troublesome posts like Work & Pensions, Home Secretary or perhaps even Health, couldn't they?

I do agree, however, that he wouldn't get PM, Chancellor or Foreign Secretary. I've a funny feeling that Clegg would insist on Vince being Chief Secretary to the Treasury - i.e. George's right-hand man; and it's that with which the Tories might have the biggest problem.

Matt

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

As PM Brown could have first crack of the whip to form a Government. This rather mirrors 1974 when IIRC Heath as PM was not able to form a Government, but Wilson with backing from the minority parties was..

Ah, that's the precedent I was thinking of, but I had it the wrong way round.

On Matt's figures Labour could form a Government with the backing of the Lib-Dems, SNP & PC, but that to me looks rather tenuous

I see the Tories have been campaigning on this today. Personally I find it quite funny, but I'm not sure it's the right move at this stage of the campaign...

 

[canveyshrimper]

Add to that the fact that Bercow can't vote, and the Tories are looking at a total of 300 votes to play with - still 23 short of an actual majority, and probably about 35 short of a viable working majority.

If indeed Bercow retains Buckingham. There's a definite move to unseat him with the previous MP switching his support to Nigel Farage.

No, theoretically it's Dr. Taylor in Wyre Forest. Either he or Bob Spink are the likeliest English independents to win. I don't think Esther Rancid or the radio chappy will win in Luton South.

I'd forgotten about Dr Taylor. A few weeks ago I was confident that Bob Spink would win Castle Point, but he's been pretty low profile so far and Rebecca Harris the opposite.

 

[canveyshrimper]

That's the outcome I think most likely. I reckon they'll have to give Clegg something more than merely ceremonial; however, they could give him one of the really troublesome posts like Work & Pensions, Home Secretary or perhaps even Health, couldn't they?

I do agree, however, that he wouldn't get PM, Chancellor or Foreign Secretary. I've a funny feeling that Clegg would insist on Vince being Chief Secretary to the Treasury - i.e. George's right-hand man; and it's that with which the Tories might have the biggest problem.

Matt

Actually giving Clegg something like Health or the Home Office would be interesting. It's also a good call on Clegg pushing for Cable to be Chief Secretary to the Treasury, that would stick in Osborne's craw for sure.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

On Matt's figures Labour could form a Government with the backing of the Lib-Dems, SNP & PC, but that to me looks rather tenuous.

A Lib-Lab-Green-Independents (Dai Davies / Richard Taylor) pact would, on my numbers, give you a total of 323 in a house of 645 sitting MPs (I'm presuming that Sinn Fein will continue not turning up) - which gives you a notional majority of 1. That unholy rabble would then try as much as possible to work with Plaid, the SNP and the SDLP when they can to get a bigger majority.

There may be trouble ahead...!

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

If indeed Bercow retains Buckingham. There's a definite move to unseat him with the previous MP switching his support to Nigel Farage.

Am I the only person around who thinks that Farage is a monumental **** and a national embarrassment? Frankly, if I were Bercow, I'd have Farage's "performance" against van Rompuy on my iPod, and would show it regularly to local electors.

 

[Napster]

Polls are quite useless. I expect a Con majority of 25 seats. Lib Dems will gain at the expense of Lab.

 

[canveyshrimper]

Am I the only person around who thinks that Farage is a monumental **** and a national embarrassment? Frankly, if I were Bercow, I'd have Farage's "performance" against van Rompuy on my iPod, and would show it regularly to local electors.

Absolutely not, Farage is a pillock, but for that matter so is Bercow, plus the fact he is severely tainted by the expenses scandal and should never have been elected as Speaker.

 

[Eastblack]

Tories will scrape it I reckon. I think the press have almost done the job in scaremongering over a hung parliament.

 

[Mad Cyril]

My prediction is that if DC gets in he will **** everything up.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

My prediction is that if DC gets in he will **** everything up.

There's not much left to **** up after the last 13 years....

 

[MK Shrimper]

I think the Tories will win and if you think this recession is hard, you wait until Bullingdon Dave starts to scythe through this country.

 

[BrettieAngell]

My prediction is that if DC gets in he will **** everything up.

everything is ****ed already isn't it? Still don't want him to get in mind you.