Relegation Battle- Remaining Fixtures.

[Barling Magna]

I can see both col u and Barrow being beat this weekend.

We have a great chance to reduce the arrears and out the pressure on.

Oldham have the worst defence in the division. I can see Col Ewe sneaking a win there if they try, but they may well just park the bus like they did at Bolton and hope to draw their way out of trouble.

Barrow face their Cumbrian rivals Carlisle who looked impressive against us and have won their last three games scoring six and conceding none. Being a derby it will probably end in a draw.

Grimsby are likely to struggle at Bradford but again a draw is quite possible.

Walsall host Forest Green who are in a dreadful run of form. A draw is highly likely there.

Realistically only the sheepy folk look catchable for us. With games against Cheltenham, Salford and Tranmere coming up they should be targeting the fixtures against Oldham, Walsall and ourselves for their survival. They will do well to gain four or five points from their remaining six games which means we have to gain ten or eleven. Very, very tough but not impossible. Three in the derby match are essential, then another seven or eight from the matches against Crawley (perhaps the "easiest" remaining game for us?), Exeter, Orient, Barrow and Newport. Hmmm.............

 

[chipmunx]

Oldham have the worst defence in the division. I can see Col Ewe sneaking a win there if they try, but they may well just park the bus like they did at Bolton and hope to draw their way out of trouble.

Barrow face their Cumbrian rivals Carlisle who looked impressive against us and have won their last three games scoring six and conceding none. Being a derby it will probably end in a draw.

Grimsby are likely to struggle at Bradford but again a draw is quite possible.

Walsall host Forest Green who are in a dreadful run of form. A draw is highly likely there.

Realistically only the sheepy folk look catchable for us. With games against Cheltenham, Salford and Tranmere coming up they should be targeting the fixtures against Oldham, Walsall and ourselves for their survival. They will do well to gain four or five points from their remaining six games which means we have to gain ten or eleven. Very, very tough but not impossible. Three in the derby match are essential, then another seven or eight from the matches against Crawley (perhaps the "easiest" remaining game for us?), Exeter, Orient, Barrow and Newport. Hmmm.............

After our late equaliser Colchesters fragile confidence will have taken a further knock. we had an off day, but they still couldn't beat us. Should they lose to Oldham on Friday and you win on Saturday then all you need to do is match their results and beat them in the derby. Perhaps your best chance of 3 points after Crawley and Colchester is if we are safe before we play you. IF we are safe by then perhaps our players will relax and that could make your job easier.

 

[Barling Magna]

After our late equaliser Colchesters fragile confidence will have taken a further knock. we had an off day, but they still couldn't beat us. Should they lose to Oldham on Friday and you win on Saturday then all you need to do is match their results and beat them in the derby. Perhaps your best chance of 3 points after Crawley and Colchester is if we are safe before we play you. IF we are safe by then perhaps our players will relax and that could make your job easier.

I think we also have to hope that Newport have nothing to play for by our final match. That would revive memories of a certain match against Sunderland....

 

[Bratislava Blue]

Does anyone think that 3 wins and 3 draws from our last 6 games us achievable? Would 48 points keep us up?

 

[nevereatwhitesnow]

After our late equaliser Colchesters fragile confidence will have taken a further knock. we had an off day, but they still couldn't beat us. Should they lose to Oldham on Friday and you win on Saturday then all you need to do is match their results and beat them in the derby. Perhaps your best chance of 3 points after Crawley and Colchester is if we are safe before we play you. IF we are safe by then perhaps our players will relax and that could make your job easier.

I’d say the opposite, for most of the game we were well on top and played with more attacking intent and composure than for some time. Conceding was frustrating of course but our fate is in our own hands (yes, one with six fingers of course) but the confidence is returning rather than diminishing. Oldham is a huge game of course but new manager bounce so far is two games undefeated and only 1 goal against, almost fully fit squad and next 3 games against teams in and around relegation dogfight. Win against Oldham and I think we’ll be all but safe

 

[Barling Magna]

Does anyone think that 3 wins and 3 draws from our last 6 games us achievable? Would 48 points keep us up?

50 needed to be safe I think. The sheepy folk will struggle to get nine points from their remaining fixtures. We must beat Crawley and Col Ewe and then two from Barrow, Exeter, Orient and Newport, and then hope that the sheepy folk really muck it up.....

 

[Stan33]

Does anyone think that 3 wins and 3 draws from our last 6 games us achievable? Would 48 points keep us up?

Yes

 

[sufc4life21]

I’d say the opposite, for most of the game we were well on top and played with more attacking intent and composure than for some time. Conceding was frustrating of course but our fate is in our own hands (yes, one with six fingers of course) but the confidence is returning rather than diminishing. Oldham is a huge game of course but new manager bounce so far is two games undefeated and only 1 goal against, almost fully fit squad and next 3 games against teams in and around relegation dogfight. Win against Oldham and I think we’ll be all but safe

I agree with you in regards to if you beat Oldham your safe. If you lose then it makes it interesting from sufc point of view. Be nice to go into the Essex derby with something on the line

 

[chipmunx]

I’d say the opposite, for most of the game we were well on top and played with more attacking intent and composure than for some time. Conceding was frustrating of course but our fate is in our own hands (yes, one with six fingers of course) but the confidence is returning rather than diminishing. Oldham is a huge game of course but new manager bounce so far is two games undefeated and only 1 goal against, almost fully fit squad and next 3 games against teams in and around relegation dogfight. Win against Oldham and I think we’ll be all but safe

yes a win against Oldham would be huge for you - not safe by any means - but with Walsall up after that you could almost guarantee they'll draw again, so you'd be on 45 point.
But a draw (or defeat) on Friday night and you'll still be behind Barrow having played 3 games more.... and would give Southend a target going into a game with out of form Crawley.

 

[nevereatwhitesnow]

I agree with you in regards to if you beat Oldham your safe. If you lose then it makes it interesting from sufc point of view. Be nice to go into the Essex derby with something on the line

Not going to lie, the only thing i want on the line in the derby is your relegation, not ours.

If you going down was going to send your club to the wall I’d not wish it on you at all, but assuming that doesn’t happen then hopefully you’ll enjoy your non-league tour as much as I did ours about 30 years ago!

 

[chipmunx]

Not going to lie, the only thing i want on the line in the derby is your relegation, not ours.

If you going down was going to send your club to the wall I’d not wish it on you at all, but assuming that doesn’t happen then hopefully you’ll enjoy your non-league tour as much as I did ours about 30 years ago!

IF the worst comes to the worst (and i still think one of the bottom 2 could stay up), then non league isn't that bad (as long as it doesn't take 48 years to get back like it took us)....

Serious question for Southend fans though;- would you rather stay up with the current owner - or go down, end up with a new owner and come back up stronger and healthier financially in say 2 seasons time?

 

[East Devon Shrimper]

We don't play on paper though!

IF the worst comes to the worst (and i still think one of the bottom 2 could stay up), then non league isn't that bad (as long as it doesn't take 48 years to get back like it took us)....

Serious question for Southend fans though;- would you rather stay up with the current owner - or go down, end up with a new owner and come back up stronger and healthier financially in say 2 seasons time?

Interesting question. Personally I’d go with the latter as the current situation is just not sustainable. Not sure where we would be playing though. One way or the other, this mess needs some sort of catalyst for change and it just could be relegation.

 

[sufc4life21]

Not going to lie, the only thing i want on the line in the derby is your relegation, not ours.

If you going down was going to send your club to the wall I’d not wish it on you at all, but assuming that doesn’t happen then hopefully you’ll enjoy your non-league tour as much as I did ours about 30 years ago!

Looking at your next 2 fixtures they are winnable from your perspective. Oldham are hit or miss, Walsall are their for the taking. You couldnt have asked for better couple of fixtures, should on paper gain 4 points atleast before the Essex derby.

Even I will admit its looking bleak from sufc point of view..... In all honestly its big ask for sufc to stay up.

 

[Paulie Walnuts]

Despite their poor home record Oldham have had an ok run of late and won’t be as easy as some people make out. Doesn’t matter though because we are capable of maybe a goal a game which won’t be enough unfortunately.

 

[nevereatwhitesnow]

Looking at your next 2 fixtures they are winnable from your perspective. Oldham are hit or miss, Walsall are their for the taking. You couldnt have asked for better couple of fixtures, should on paper gain 4 points atleast before the Essex derby.

Even I will admit its looking bleak from sufc point of view..... In all honestly its big ask for sufc to stay up.

To be honest we have (had) a run of 4 games that were decent after the new managers first game (Bolton) which is why Cowling pulled the trigger when he did I think.

Bolton was a bonus point, Barrow was two points lost perhaps (but important not to lose) we now have Oldham and Walsall followed by you lot. If we don’t pick up enough points to survive in that lot then we’ll probably deserve to go down.

For the next 3 games:

7pts would be enough obviously
6pts would be enough if 3 were win against you lot
if we don’t win 1 of the next 2 then the Derby is going to be very tense indeed (unless you lose the next two)

 

[sufc4life21]

To be honest we have (had) a run of 4 games that were decent after the new managers first game (Bolton) which is why Cowling pulled the trigger when he did I think.

Bolton was a bonus point, Barrow was two points lost perhaps (but important not to lose) we now have Oldham and Walsall followed by you lot. If we don’t pick up enough points to survive in that lot then we’ll probably deserve to go down.

For the next 3 games:

7pts would be enough obviously
6pts would be enough if 3 were win against you lot
if we don’t win 1 of the next 2 then the Derby is going to be very tense indeed (unless you lose the next two)

from sufc perspective that is best chance of staying up if your lot don't pick up the points required from those 2 fixtures. Admittedly sufc have to gain minimum of 4 points from the 2 games before the Essex derby to have a chance to beat the drop.

Time will tell i guess.

 

[MR G]

Before the Morecambe game I gave some thought as to points needed to stay up and I think we will need 47 points (only basing this on the averages of the past 10 seasons of the 3rd from bottom team): I then went through the next 7 games that we had at that time and predicted the following:

Morecambe - 1 point
Crawley - 3 points
Exeter - 1 point
Col U - 3 points
Orient - 1 point
Barrow - 3 points
Newport - 0 points

That leaves us on 47 points - Fingers crossed

Very tall order I know but while there is hope we must hope

 

[chipmunx]

Before the Morecambe game I gave some thought as to points needed to stay up and I think we will need 47 points (only basing this on the averages of the past 10 seasons of the 3rd from bottom team): I then went through the next 7 games that we had at that time and predicted the following:

Morecambe - 1 point
Crawley - 3 points
Exeter - 1 point
Col U - 3 points
Orient - 1 point
Barrow - 3 points
Newport - 0 points

That leaves us on 47 points - Fingers crossed

Very tall order I know but while there is hope we must hope

what are your predictions for our and Colchesters' other remaining games out of interest?

 

[nevereatwhitesnow]

Before the Morecambe game I gave some thought as to points needed to stay up and I think we will need 47 points (only basing this on the averages of the past 10 seasons of the 3rd from bottom team): I then went through the next 7 games that we had at that time and predicted the following:

Morecambe - 1 point
Crawley - 3 points
Exeter - 1 point
Col U - 3 points
Orient - 1 point
Barrow - 3 points
Newport - 0 points

That leaves us on 47 points - Fingers crossed

Very tall order I know but while there is hope we must hope

If you get those results from your remaining fixtures you’d deserve to stay up to be honest, but that’s switching from relegation for to playoff form

 

[MR G]

what are your predictions for our and Colchesters' other remaining games out of interest?

To be honest I have not looked at their fixtures - I guess these thoughts are based on blind hope that my team that I have followed for 45 years do not disappear in to the abyss without a fight !!