Dead and buried by Wolves last week, we raise ourselves to play the in-form Southampton. One exceptional performance later and many of us start to question the fast-gathering-pace belief that relegation for our beloved team is nothing short of a certainty.
So, can we do it?
Well, of course we can.
Is it likely?
No, but there is still hope.
Why we have absolutely no reason to believe we can stay up
==========================================
Even as one of the most optimistic, blue-tint glasses wearing, ever-hopeful Shrimpers you'll meet - and despite the hugely uplifting events of Saturday - the facts of the matter make pretty grim reading.
In 2003/2004, the Gills survived with 51 points (with a goal difference of -19) while Walsall, Bradford and the MK Dons went down with 51 (-20), 36 (-31) and 29 (-48).
In 2004/2005, Crewe survived with 50 points (with a GD of -20) while the Gills, Forest and Rotherham went down with 50 (-21), 44 (-24) and 29 (-34) respectively.
In 2005/2006, Derby and QPR survived with 50 points (and GDs of -14/-15) while Crewe, MIllwall and Brighton met relegation with 42 (-29), 40 (-27) and 38 (-32) respectively.
So, 50-51 points seems to be the very least we need to achieve.
While we're not quite half-way through the season, we're pretty close to being so. 22 played and 24 left to play.
With just 15 points in the bag, we're pretty much certain to need another 35 and that's some pretty serious form needed. Look how well Col******r United have done so far this season and then recognise that survival for us means matching that form and perhaps slipping in at least one extra victory!
So far, we've achieved an average of 0.68 points in each of the first 22 games. To survive, we'll need to start picking up an average of 1.67 until the end of the season. To give you some idea of what that means, look at Stoke who currently occupy 5th place in the table with 37 points to our 15.
At least we can say we beat them!!
If you look at the facts folks, we are out of here...
Why we might still hold on to that small piece of hope
=====================================
Someone mentioned this morning the parallel with 1992 and the arrival of a certain Mr. Collymore. This tells us simply that whatever the facts might say, hope is what this game is all about. Not only CAN we go on to survive from this position, but we've done it before.
Accepting then that we CAN still do it, what else is there that you might reasonably consider to be in our favour?
Well the first thing is attitude.
We saw it on Saturday and we might be fortunate to see it continue through to the end of the season. Rain-induced heart-to-hearts or a simply a turn in luck which saw Eastwood's fine strike go inside the post rather than outside, the team seem finally to have recognised that each and every game we play is a Cup Final. Long may this continue, especially towards the end of the season while any number of teams we play start to think about their summer holidays.
The second thing is the support.
There can be no doubt that things have been a little dark around Roots Hall for some time. 17 games without a win can do that. Sometimes the support needs to be re-ignited. Saturday may have been the spark.
Thirdly, the run of games themselves.
In my mind, the second half of the season is going to be considerably "easier" than the first half. Forget the big teams and just think about our fellow strugglers for a minute. Of the teams around us, we've only had the opporunity to play Hull at home while we been away at Palace, at QPR, at Leicester City, at Leeds and at Barnsley. Win these home games against our fellow strugglers and we're most certainly back in the game!
Fourthly, we've signed up McCormack.
What an impact this man can make to our season. How long have we bemoaned the absence of someone like him, even to the extent of looking longingly backwards to the likes of Bentley. The lunging tackles that frighten the opposition and fire-up our team were crucial to our victory on Saturday. Can anyone name a player you'd prefer to have alongside you in a relegation battle?
All in all, my expectation is that we'll be relegated but for now at least, there appears to be some hope.
All of that said, losing to Luton on Friday spells the end for me.
It's that tight.
Friday is a must, must win game!
So, can we do it?
Well, of course we can.
Is it likely?
No, but there is still hope.
Why we have absolutely no reason to believe we can stay up
==========================================
Even as one of the most optimistic, blue-tint glasses wearing, ever-hopeful Shrimpers you'll meet - and despite the hugely uplifting events of Saturday - the facts of the matter make pretty grim reading.
In 2003/2004, the Gills survived with 51 points (with a goal difference of -19) while Walsall, Bradford and the MK Dons went down with 51 (-20), 36 (-31) and 29 (-48).
In 2004/2005, Crewe survived with 50 points (with a GD of -20) while the Gills, Forest and Rotherham went down with 50 (-21), 44 (-24) and 29 (-34) respectively.
In 2005/2006, Derby and QPR survived with 50 points (and GDs of -14/-15) while Crewe, MIllwall and Brighton met relegation with 42 (-29), 40 (-27) and 38 (-32) respectively.
So, 50-51 points seems to be the very least we need to achieve.
While we're not quite half-way through the season, we're pretty close to being so. 22 played and 24 left to play.
With just 15 points in the bag, we're pretty much certain to need another 35 and that's some pretty serious form needed. Look how well Col******r United have done so far this season and then recognise that survival for us means matching that form and perhaps slipping in at least one extra victory!
So far, we've achieved an average of 0.68 points in each of the first 22 games. To survive, we'll need to start picking up an average of 1.67 until the end of the season. To give you some idea of what that means, look at Stoke who currently occupy 5th place in the table with 37 points to our 15.
At least we can say we beat them!!
If you look at the facts folks, we are out of here...
Why we might still hold on to that small piece of hope
=====================================
Someone mentioned this morning the parallel with 1992 and the arrival of a certain Mr. Collymore. This tells us simply that whatever the facts might say, hope is what this game is all about. Not only CAN we go on to survive from this position, but we've done it before.
Accepting then that we CAN still do it, what else is there that you might reasonably consider to be in our favour?
Well the first thing is attitude.
We saw it on Saturday and we might be fortunate to see it continue through to the end of the season. Rain-induced heart-to-hearts or a simply a turn in luck which saw Eastwood's fine strike go inside the post rather than outside, the team seem finally to have recognised that each and every game we play is a Cup Final. Long may this continue, especially towards the end of the season while any number of teams we play start to think about their summer holidays.
The second thing is the support.
There can be no doubt that things have been a little dark around Roots Hall for some time. 17 games without a win can do that. Sometimes the support needs to be re-ignited. Saturday may have been the spark.
Thirdly, the run of games themselves.
In my mind, the second half of the season is going to be considerably "easier" than the first half. Forget the big teams and just think about our fellow strugglers for a minute. Of the teams around us, we've only had the opporunity to play Hull at home while we been away at Palace, at QPR, at Leicester City, at Leeds and at Barnsley. Win these home games against our fellow strugglers and we're most certainly back in the game!
Fourthly, we've signed up McCormack.
What an impact this man can make to our season. How long have we bemoaned the absence of someone like him, even to the extent of looking longingly backwards to the likes of Bentley. The lunging tackles that frighten the opposition and fire-up our team were crucial to our victory on Saturday. Can anyone name a player you'd prefer to have alongside you in a relegation battle?
All in all, my expectation is that we'll be relegated but for now at least, there appears to be some hope.
All of that said, losing to Luton on Friday spells the end for me.
It's that tight.
Friday is a must, must win game!
