So what's going to happen in L1?

[fbm]

We know a bit more now about the virus, what's happening in other countries and leagues and the legal challenges and arguments presented.

So - taking all emotion out of it, if that's possible, what do we think will actually happen? Note - this is not what we WANT to happen, it's what we think actually WILL happen.

As I see it, these are the main choices -

1 - Void the season. It never happened.
2 - Finish the season now. Promote and relegate on positions as they stand. No further matches.
3 - Play the season out to a conclusion, no matter how long it takes, with clubs having to use yoofs to cover senior players out of contract.
4 - Calculate the end of the season using points per game or similar method to establish final league positions. Play offs. Promotion and relegation as usual.
5 - Similar to 4 but with no relegation and places adjusted over the next season or two.
6 - Delay and argue the toss so that a number of clubs go bust. Completely restructure EFL bringing in the National League.

Or there could be something else - in which case please state below in this thread.

Remember - it's what we think, not what we want.

 

[southendkid]

Tranmere have proposed an alternative which I think could appeal to clubs like Sunderland just outside the playoffs (as well as us and Bolton if the first version of the proposal is utilised). Given the deadlock between the 2 choices the EFL have propsed so far I could see it gaining some momentum since it doesn't feel like either side is going to budge under the 2 methods the EFL are promoting:

Chairman statement: A proposal for an equitable end to the EFL season in a time of crisis

Tranmere Rovers is requesting the EFL Board to put a proposal forward for EFL Clubs to vote on. We recognise that the proposal may need some additional work around the detail. In our view that is something which should be done in collaboration with clubs.

www.tranmererovers.co.uk

Essentially they've calculated the margin or error (the difference) between what a PPG method would have produced for each club at the end of the season and what clubs actually finished on. They've calculated based on this that the vast majority of clubs had a true end total between -5.4% and 6.3% of what PPG produced.

Tranmere are proposing that teams in the promotion places that are clear of the play offs even with the typical margin of error applied will go up automatically, then anyone else that feasibly could have made the play offs with the typical margin of error will be in the playoffs (even if this means there are more than 4 teams competing).

Tranmere have also highlighted that Wimbledon were 12 points adrift at this stage of the season last year but survived (whereas even with the margin of error they'd go down under PPG) so they've suggested two ways of sorting out relegation. Proposal 1 says there is no relegation (as it's far easier to be an outlier at the bottom of the table if you go on a run) and with the National League's cooperation they could promote more sides to League 2 to make up for the fact no one would be relegated from League 1, the assumption is that the championship would be played in full so relegation would still happen in the championship. They've conceded this may not fly well with the EFL so there is a second version of the proposal which would see us and Bolton relegated since we fall outside the margin of error even though it would discount the possibility of one of us going on a late run.

 

[leeblue]

Its option 2. Just end it. Do automatic promotions and relegation. Done. There is no ideal scenario but fans need to get over it and at least have clarity and the ability to look forward to new season.

 

[RobM]

I posted before my idea.

Take the ppg over the last 5 games (call it ppg5). For each remaining fixture the home team gets (ppg5 * 1.2) the away (ppg5 * 0.8). Then rationalise it to add up to 3.

Takes into account home/away/ form and that of opponents.

Example; Let's say Wycombe v, Tranmere.

Wycombe ppg5 =1.2 (home) * 9/5 = 2.16
Tranmere ppg5 =0.8 (away) * 10/5 = 1.60

Rationalise to 3;

Wycombe 1.77 points, Tranmere 1.23 points.

 

[Ayrshire Blue]

Play the games behind closed doors and get it done or void it and act like it didn’t happen. I don’t see how you can do anything in-between. I’m talking whole football league btw, not just Southend. You can’t relegate or promote when there’s 27 points to play for by letting a computer decide the results. If that was the case, we’d have been in League 2 this season

 

[JIMSDAD]

Make the 19/20 season into a 19/21 season, i.e., a “Super Season”. All results to date stand and the remains fixtures from 19/20 to be added to the next full season.
This would make the Covid 19 disaster into, pretty much, a mid-season break. Get the transfer window open to cover the gap and cater for run down contracts. All prize money from 19/20 to be shared out to help ALL clubs.

 

[Shrimper in France]

Agree. as per Jim's Dad above.

 

[onceknownasrab]

Scrap the season and have promotion and relegation as the team's stand now. In July inspect the ability of all clubs to see out next season and those that clearly can't are binned. Then decide if a league can retain some of the relegated sides or promote more because of spaces. Tough but fair. No guarantee we would survive but I suspect I have too few digits on my hands to count the clubs close to collapse. Survival of the fittest or subsequent seasons will be marred by clubs not seeing out the fixtures.

 

[camden shrimper]

Option 8 - Play it in Championship Manager instead

 

[MK Shrimper]

Make the 19/20 season into a 19/21 season, i.e., a “Super Season”. All results to date stand and the remains fixtures from 19/20 to be added to the next full season.
This would make the Covid 19 disaster into, pretty much, a mid-season break. Get the transfer window open to cover the gap and cater for run down contracts. All prize money from 19/20 to be shared out to help ALL clubs.

This is a novel and particually good idea. However you can see that clubs who may miss out on promotion or end up getting relegated in May 2021 will just sue the pants off of the EFL.

 

[JIMSDAD]

Simply cannot see ANY more sensible way to deal with it apart from null and void and duck below the parapet as all the legal wars begin. Also, maybe with a little support I see this as one of the few ways that would leave the leagues and their current clubs intact.