Southend United for promotion 12/1

[Ricky Otto]

12/1 seems very generous the way we are playing, Had a sneaky £10 on it but am wondering if I should have had more.

On a separate note, my preseason bet of Leicester to be relegated, £10 at 40/1 is looking promising. Can cash out for £102.50, dilemma, do I let it run?

 

[Pubey]

12/1 seems very generous the way we are playing, Had a sneaky £10 on it but am wondering if I should have had more.

On a separate note, my preseason bet of Leicester to be relegated, £10 at 40/1 is looking promising. Can cash out for £102.50, dilemma, do I let it run?

I wouldn't cash out on Leicester - they look dead and buried to me. At least Swansea, Hull and even Sunderland have shown hints of 'survivability'. Next four Leicester games - Swansea away, Liverpool at home, Hull at home, Arsenal away.

12/1 does seem generous for us but also there are some geeks out there who think we'll struggle to get into the playoffs (20% chance) based on expected goals model:

https://experimental361.com/2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-league-1-5-feb-2017/

The low probability is also driven by the fact that at this moment we're battling against Rochdale for just one place in the playoff. If we can string some results together and pressure Fleetwood and Bradford then things open up for us.

I think the general view is that we've been clinical at finishing but not creating enough for that to be sustainable. Obviously that's based on the past and I think we're in a stronger position then predicted, because of the quality we've added to the squad and with Coker coming back and hopefully McLaughlin will feature for the last month.

 

[Blueronron]

12/1 seems very generous the way we are playing, Had a sneaky £10 on it but am wondering if I should have had more.

On a separate note, my preseason bet of Leicester to be relegated, £10 at 40/1 is looking promising. Can cash out for £102.50, dilemma, do I let it run?

Depends if £ 102 means a lot to you mate, question would you be happy to put a tenner on a horse at 9/1 and win profit £ 90.00 and walk away with a smile on your face or would you lump it on another horse ....

UTS

 

[Ricky Otto]

I wouldn't cash out on Leicester - they look dead and buried to me. At least Swansea, Hull and even Sunderland have shown hints of 'survivability'. Next four Leicester games - Swansea away, Liverpool at home, Hull at home, Arsenal away.

12/1 does seem generous for us but also there are some geeks out there who think we'll struggle to get into the playoffs (20% chance) based on expected goals model:

https://experimental361.com/2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-league-1-5-feb-2017/

The low probability is also driven by the fact that at this moment we're battling against Rochdale for just one place in the playoff. If we can string some results together and pressure Fleetwood and Bradford then things open up for us.

I think the general view is that we've been clinical at finishing but not creating enough for that to be sustainable. Obviously that's based on the past and I think we're in a stronger position then predicted, because of the quality we've added to the squad and with Coker coming back and hopefully McLaughlin will feature for the last month.

Yeah I'm tempted to let it run, it seems viable at the moment, they look very poor.

Some great analysis there mate! I think we can beat anyone in this league if we play the way we played Saturday and after a poor start I think we will continue to catch up with the others. Think autos are beyond us but think we will cement our spot in the playoffs. I look at Millwall at 9/2 and 2 points behind us and I think 12/1 is bloody good value

 

[Pubey]

Yeah I'm tempted to let it run, it seems viable at the moment, they look very poor.

Some great analysis there mate! I think we can beat anyone in this league if we play the way we played Saturday and after a poor start I think we will continue to catch up with the others. Think autos are beyond us but think we will cement our spot in the playoffs. I look at Millwall at 9/2 and 2 points behind us and I think 12/1 is bloody good value

Yeah I think we're a strong team and the fact that we've taken the following points from the top 10 is a good indicator of that. It's those few draws that we couldn't turn to wins that have been our achilles heel:

1. Sheffield Utd (3 from 6)
2. Scunthorpe (6 from 6)
3. Bolton (1 from 3). Home game to play
4. Fleetwood (1 from 6)
5. Bradford (4 from 6)
6---
7. Rochdale (3 from 6)
8. Peterborough (1 from 3). Away game to play
9. Millwall (3 from 6)
10. Bristol Rovers (1 from 3). Away game to play

So you can look at that two ways. Firstly we've got a relatively good run in with only three games (out of 17!) to play against teams in the top 10, so in general we should be favourites in most games. But secondly, we have less opportunity to make up ground against the teams above and around us. Even if we win we're relying on those teams to lose. Conceding the late equaliser against Fleetwood means they're 5 points rather than 2 points ahead.

 

[londonblue]

I wouldn't cash out on Leicester - they look dead and buried to me. At least Swansea, Hull and even Sunderland have shown hints of 'survivability'. Next four Leicester games - Swansea away, Liverpool at home, Hull at home, Arsenal away.

12/1 does seem generous for us but also there are some geeks out there who think we'll struggle to get into the playoffs (20% chance) based on expected goals model:

https://experimental361.com/2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-league-1-5-feb-2017/

The low probability is also driven by the fact that at this moment we're battling against Rochdale for just one place in the playoff. If we can string some results together and pressure Fleetwood and Bradford then things open up for us.

I think the general view is that we've been clinical at finishing but not creating enough for that to be sustainable. Obviously that's based on the past and I think we're in a stronger position then predicted, because of the quality we've added to the squad and with Coker coming back and hopefully McLaughlin will feature for the last month.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Fleetwood are 4 points ahead of us, but have played a game more. We're therefore not just battling Rochdale for one place. There must be another reason for the odds.

Out of interest, what were our odds of promotion before the season started? Could someone have made a nice little profit by cashing it in now?

 

[londonblue]

Yeah I'm tempted to let it run, it seems viable at the moment, they look very poor.

Some great analysis there mate! I think we can beat anyone in this league if we play the way we played Saturday and after a poor start I think we will continue to catch up with the others. Think autos are beyond us but think we will cement our spot in the playoffs. I look at Millwall at 9/2 and 2 points behind us and I think 12/1 is bloody good value

From a purely selfish point of view, I really want automatic. I'll be on holiday over the play-off final.

 

[Pubey]

I'm not sure I agree with that. Fleetwood are 4 points ahead of us, but have played a game more. We're therefore not just battling Rochdale for one place. There must be another reason for the odds.

Out of interest, what were our odds of promotion before the season started? Could someone have made a nice little profit by cashing it in now?

Yes while they are 4 points ahead we can't automatically assume that we'll win and make up that gap with our game in hand. On average we have a ppg of 1.58, so it'd have to come from having better form than them over the longer term. There is a reasonable gap to Fleetwood, including their superior goal difference, in particular because we don't play them again. But that could be turned around quite quickly with a couple of wins.

 

[Grayson]

I wouldn't cash out on Leicester - they look dead and buried to me. At least Swansea, Hull and even Sunderland have shown hints of 'survivability'. Next four Leicester games - Swansea away, Liverpool at home, Hull at home, Arsenal away.

12/1 does seem generous for us but also there are some geeks out there who think we'll struggle to get into the playoffs (20% chance) based on expected goals model:

https://experimental361.com/2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-league-1-5-feb-2017/

The low probability is also driven by the fact that at this moment we're battling against Rochdale for just one place in the playoff. If we can string some results together and pressure Fleetwood and Bradford then things open up for us.

I think the general view is that we've been clinical at finishing but not creating enough for that to be sustainable. Obviously that's based on the past and I think we're in a stronger position then predicted, because of the quality we've added to the squad and with Coker coming back and hopefully McLaughlin will feature for the last month.

Ben Mayhew's stuff is great but I'd take it all with a pinch of salt, as he does tell people when they query a given game. He's reliant on Press Association description data (e.g. BBC live text feed) for his expected goals ratings rather than video footage that those doing it for the Premier League would have.

 

[southendkid]

I'm not sure I agree with that. Fleetwood are 4 points ahead of us, but have played a game more. We're therefore not just battling Rochdale for one place. There must be another reason for the odds.

Out of interest, what were our odds of promotion before the season started? Could someone have made a nice little profit by cashing it in now?

Keep in mind we have to actually win that game in hand to catch up to Fleetwood, and it's against Bolton who aren't going to be an easy team to beat even at home.

Not sure about our promotion odds but I remember looking at our relegation odds after getting thrashed by Rochdale and i think we were 1/3 to go down.

 

[tottenham541]

12/1 seems very generous the way we are playing, Had a sneaky £10 on it but am wondering if I should have had more.

On a separate note, my preseason bet of Leicester to be relegated, £10 at 40/1 is looking promising. Can cash out for £102.50, dilemma, do I let it run?

id let it go to the end as I think they will go down on the last game of season, you no it's just gonna happen:thumbsup:

 

[BrettieAngell]

I got 28's a month or so ago.

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

Is that for automatic promotion or do play-offs count?

I'd let the Leicester bet run for now, Hull and Swansea are showing signs of promise under new managers and even Sunderland have had a couple of decent results lately. Plus Leicester have the Champions League and they're still in the FA Cup (for tonight at least).

 

[Ricky Otto]

Is that for automatic promotion or do play-offs count?

I'd let the Leicester bet run for now, Hull and Swansea are showing signs of promise under new managers and even Sunderland have had a couple of decent results lately. Plus Leicester have the Champions League and they're still in the FA Cup (for tonight at least).

Promotion either automatically or through the play offs.

Swansea away then Liverpool at home but with an fa cup game and champions league game before both. I'll def let it run til the end of the month then review the cash out

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

I got 28's a month or so ago.

Took 33's back in November - still think top 2 is unlikely but who knows.

 

[BrettieAngell]

Took 33's back in November - still think top 2 is unlikely but who knows.

I got just promotion so play-offs count.

 

[bradshrimper]

Get on us to finish top 6! I got odds of 17/2 a few months ago, but PP is still offering 10/3. Think it's a solid bet

 

[RobM]

I have £2 on Milwall 0 Blues 1 with Cox to score.

 

[Ricky Otto]

8/1 now with 365

 

[BrettieAngell]

13/2 on skybet, 28's is looking pretty sweet right now!