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rabbloke

Coach
Joined
Aug 13, 2004
Messages
718
The last three season stats read as follows 2001/02 Southend finished 12th on 58 oints and lost 18 games. 2002/03 we finished 17th on 54 points and lost 26 games. Last season we finished 17th on 54 points and lost 20 games. Hell! Thats the model of consistency. During those seasons the highest points gained for the last play off spot was 74. We are 30 short with 20 to play which would suggest a requirement of winning at least 50% of our remaining games to have a pop at the back door promotion scheme. Course a top three spot would be my preference and I believe not beyond the Blues. I fear February most with having to play Sc**thorpe, Swansea and Northampton in consecutive matches. Somehow though I have difficulty believing we will not be in the shake up somewhere and find the numbers comforting. I do think that this season will see less than 74 points for the last play off spot as the division is so tight and anyone and everyone nicking points. Come on you Mighty Blues!!!!!
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (rabbloke @ Jan. 07 2005,10:18)]The last three season stats read as follows 2001/02 Southend finished 12th on 58 oints and lost 18 games. 2002/03 we finished 17th on 54 points and lost 26 games. Last season we finished 17th on 54 points and lost 20 games. Hell! Thats the model of consistency. During those seasons the highest points gained for the last play off spot was 74. We are 30 short with 20 to play which would suggest a requirement of winning at least 50% of our remaining games to have a pop at the back door promotion scheme. Course a top three spot would be my preference and I believe not beyond the Blues. I fear February most with having to play Sc**thorpe, Swansea and Northampton in consecutive matches. Somehow though I have difficulty believing we will not be in the shake up somewhere and find the numbers comforting. I do think that this season will see less than 74 points for the last play off spot as the division is so tight and anyone and everyone nicking points. Come on you Mighty Blues!!!!!
Another one to add to the growing army of stattos
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take note Dave!
wink.gif
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (rabbloke @ Jan. 07 2005,10:18)]I fear February most with having to play Sc**thorpe, Swansea and Northampton in consecutive matches.
We shouldnt fear any of these teams, i feel we have a squad that can deal with any of these teams. Yeah it will be hard but thats what promotions about, i think we should look forward to february as the month that the mighty shrimpers are taken as serious automatic promotion contenders
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Forgetting August, We have been consistent from September onwards and our record in the 21 league games from then is the accumulation of 42 points or 2 points per game on average. That means that if we maintain that standard, we could be looking at another 40 points on the board by the end of the campaign, giving us 84 points and a top three spot (just, probably!).

February will be the key month with Darlo at the end of January being the start of it all. If we get through these games, people will start to take us seriously!
cool.gif
 
Delving further (I had a spare 10 minutes):

Over the past 7 years -

1st Avg 91.7 High 102 Low 85 (twice)

2nd Avg 85.6 High 97 (got to be gutted not to be 1st) Low 81

3rd Avg 80.1 High 84 Low 75

4th Avg 76.7 High 81 Low 74 (3 times)

7th Avg 71.4 High 74 Low 70 (twice)

Make of it what you will. I conclude that i'm a sad tw*t for working it out but it does give you a rough idea of what we need to achieve.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (The Flying Scotsman @ Jan. 07 2005,12:10)]Delving further (I had a spare 10 minutes):

Over the past 7 years -

1st Avg 91.7  High 102  Low 85 (twice)

2nd Avg 85.6  High 97 (got to be gutted not to be 1st) Low 81

3rd Avg 80.1  High 84  Low 75

4th Avg 76.7  High 81  Low 74 (3 times)

7th Avg 71.4  High 74  Low 70 (twice)

Make of it what you will. I conclude that i'm a sad tw*t for working it out but it does give you a rough idea of what we need to achieve.
There's some interesting spreads there.

Now, taking our form over the last eight games (W5, D2, L1- 2nd best in the division), that is 2.12 points per game. We will, by this system, end up with 20 times 2.12 an extra 42 points, leaving us with 86 points. This would leave us at least third, and more likely higher, looking at the averages.

If we are only performing at 75% of our last 8 matches (1.59 points per game), we will end up with 20 times 1.59 an extra 32 points, giving us 76 points which might see us scrape into automatic promotion, but will definitely get us into the play-offs
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (The Flying Scotsman @ Jan. 07 2005,12:10)]Delving further (I had a spare 10 minutes):

Over the past 7 years -

1st Avg 91.7  High 102  Low 85 (twice)

2nd Avg 85.6  High 97 (got to be gutted not to be 1st) Low 81

3rd Avg 80.1  High 84  Low 75

4th Avg 76.7  High 81  Low 74 (3 times)

7th Avg 71.4  High 74  Low 70 (twice)

Make of it what you will. I conclude that i'm a sad tw*t for working it out but it does give you a rough idea of what we need to achieve.
What about 23rd place? Are we safe from relegation?
 
23rd place - Avg 44 High 48 Low 35

Therefore we can pretty much rule relegation out, unless we lose every game and then get unlucky. I think i'd wait until we reach 50 points before celebrating!!

The low of 35 was achieved in the 97/98 season (the year we we relegated from Div 2). The bottom 4 amazingly were

21. Cardiff 50
22. Hull 41
23. Brighton 35
24. Doncaster 20

Now look where they are!!!
 
Everyone's on about the Scunny, Swansea and Northampton games... but we overlook Darlo at our peril. They've thumped us 4-0 already this season, and are rapidly becoming a bit of a bogey club for us, last year's dramatic home game aside...

ghostface.gif


I'd love an auto-promotion spot, but I just feel as if we're heading for the playoffs... just a gut instinct, I suppose.

sad.gif


Still, you can't be too gloomy about that, can you...!

biggrin.gif
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (CANV @ Jan. 07 2005,14:17)]stat fest
Do they know something I don't know?

08-Jan-05 A Boston United fix 15.00
15-Jan-05 H Notts County fix 15.00
22-Jan-05 A Mansfield Town fix 15.00
29-Jan-05 H Darlington fix 15.00
05-Feb-05 A Swansea City fix 15.00
12-Feb-05 H Sc**thorpe United fix 15.00
19-Feb-05 A Northampton Town fix 15.00
22-Feb-05 H Shrewsbury Town fix 19.45
26-Feb-05 H Bury fix 15.00
05-Mar-05 A Chester City fix 15.00
12-Mar-05 H Lincoln City fix 15.00
19-Mar-05 A Cheltenham Town fix 15.00
26-Mar-05 H Rochdale fix 15.00
28-Mar-05 A Cambridge United fix 15.00
02-Apr-05 H Bristol Rovers fix 15.00
09-Apr-05 A Macclesfield Town fix 15.00
16-Apr-05 H Leyton Orient fix 15.00
23-Apr-05 A Oxford United fix 15.00
30-Apr-05 H Yeovil Town fix 15.00
07-May-05 A Grimsby Town fix 15.00
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,14:36)]Everyone's on about the Scunny, Swansea and Northampton games... but we overlook Darlo at our peril.  They've thumped us 4-0 already this season, and are rapidly becoming a bit of a bogey club for us, last year's dramatic home game aside...

ghostface.gif


I'd love an auto-promotion spot, but I just feel as if we're heading for the playoffs... just a gut instinct, I suppose.

sad.gif


Still, you can't be too gloomy about that, can you...!

biggrin.gif
And the win with 10 men when Rawle scored late on. I'd have to disagree on the bogey team theory, but do agree they need to be taken seriously.
 
I'd forgotten that one...

Ah well, here's a stat to cheer us all up. Our average attendance so far this season:

5,143.

That's a massive jump on last season (4,535). It's our highest average attendance since... 1996-97, when we averaged 5,267.

And that was in Division 1!

Indeed, in 1994-95, we only averaged 5,154... a paltry 9 more on an average gate in Div 1, than we're getting this season.

Bearing in mind that we were then playing teams with very large away contingents such as Middlesbrough, Wolves, Bolton, Sunderland, Derby, Charlton, West Brom and Pompey - whilst this season we're playing the likes of Macclesfield, Bury, Kidderminster, Cheltenham, Rochdale, Boston, Chester and Rushden.

That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!

wow.gif
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If that's not a stat to cheer us all up, then nothing is!

smile.gif


Matt
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:09)]That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!
I reckon quite a bit of the credit for this should go to the current management of the club on and off the pitch.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Guest @ Jan. 07 2005,15:15)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:09)]That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!
I reckon quite a bit of the credit for this should go to the current management of the club on and off the pitch.
I'd say that most of the credit should go to them. The debt issues aside, this club has not been better run than it is now since I started supporting in 1991, certainly.

Matt
 
Me too.

Also, having read this thread of stats, I may think twice before posting 'interesting' stats.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:29)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Guest @ Jan. 07 2005,15:15)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:09)]That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!
I reckon quite a bit of the credit for this should go to the current management of the club on and off the pitch.
I'd say that most of the credit should go to them.  The debt issues aside, this club has not been better run than it is now since I started supporting in 1991, certainly.

Matt
Hmmmm.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Napster @ Jan. 07 2005,15:31)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:29)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Guest @ Jan. 07 2005,15:15)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:09)]That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!
I reckon quite a bit of the credit for this should go to the current management of the club on and off the pitch.
I'd say that most of the credit should go to them.  The debt issues aside, this club has not been better run than it is now since I started supporting in 1991, certainly.

Matt
Hmmmm.
OK:

1. IMHO - but then I don't pretend to know most of the underlying figures; I just see what's on the pitch, and the official accounts... both of which look very healthy indeed at the moment.

2. Since the beginning of the 1992 season, when has the club been better run than it is now? That's a genuine, not a rhetorical, question.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Napster @ Jan. 07 2005,15:31)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:29)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Guest @ Jan. 07 2005,15:15)]
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Jan. 07 2005,15:09)]That means we're probably pulling in (on average) 1,000 or so more home fans this season than in 1994-95... when we finished in mid-table in Div 1!
I reckon quite a bit of the credit for this should go to the current management of the club on and off the pitch.
I'd say that most of the credit should go to them.  The debt issues aside, this club has not been better run than it is now since I started supporting in 1991, certainly.

Matt
Hmmmm.
Unless you know something that the rest of don't I think most punters (and by punters I am omitting conspiracy theorists etc.) would agree.
 
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