Stats, Stats & Damned Stats...

[Razam]

According to Proffessor Wiki, PB's managerial career states are:

Games: 246
Wins: 74
Draws: 71
Loss: 101
Win %: 30.08%
Draws %: 28.86%

Assuming he carrys those percenatages through to the next 7 games, it will mean 2 wins & 2 draws = 8 points.
That will give us 63points. If we are very lucky, it may scrape us into 7th place. But highly unlikely.

Assuming he carrys those percenatages through to the next season, over 46 games it will mean:
Wins: 14
Draws: 13
Loss: 19
Total Points: 55 points

Let's hope the new manager effect kicks in with the players now - at least if we manage to go up this season, 55pts wouls be enough to avoid relegation from Lg1 next season.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

You could argue that 70 games of that was with Hull in the PL, where if they got 1 point a game over the course of the season that would of been seen as a good return. Mind you, its still s**t

 

[Mick]

According to Proffessor Wiki, PB's managerial career states are:

Games: 246
Wins: 74
Draws: 71
Loss: 101
Win %: 30.08%
Draws %: 28.86%

Assuming he carrys those percenatages through to the next 7 games, it will mean 2 wins & 2 draws = 8 points.
That will give us 63points. If we are very lucky, it may scrape us into 7th place. But highly unlikely.

Assuming he carrys those percenatages through to the next season, over 46 games it will mean:
Wins: 14
Draws: 13
Loss: 19
Total Points: 55 points

Let's hope the new manager effect kicks in with the players now - at least if we manage to go up this season, 55pts wouls be enough to avoid relegation from Lg1 next season.

That win/draw/lose ration wouldn't get us through the playoffs !

 

[Razam]

You could argue that 70 games of that was with Hull in the PL, where if they got 1 point a game over the course of the season that would of been seen as a good return. Mind you, its still s**t

fair point. So if we remove the premiership stats with Hull (P.76, W.14, D.23, L.39), the figures would be as follows:

Games: 170
Wins: 60
Draws: 48
Loss: 62
Win %: 35.29%
Draws %: 28.24%

Over 7 games it mean: 2-3 wins (2&half), 2 draws = 8 or 11 points.
Over 46 games it mean:
Wins: 16
Draws: 13
Loss: 17
Points: 61 points

Not a major difference in regards to achieving promotion :unsure:

 

[Razam]

Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how close the stats predict the reality....

if we remove the premiership stats with Hull , the figures would be as follows:
Win %: 35.29%
Draws %: 28.24%

So over 10 games, it would equate to:
Wins: 3.529 games x 3pts
Draws: 2.824 games x 1pt
Total (rounded-up): 13 points.

Given that we're currently on 14 points, means we're doing better that the stats would suggest. Obviously 10 games is nothing, but lets hope the trend continues getting better

 

[buffalowolf]

Given also that most on here have said PB has no experience of managing a league2 team , i would say hes done okay in his learning curve ( 10 GAMES), and now hopefully things will improve. But saying that i think its going to be hard if we cannot sign anymore players, i think we may see before the seasons end Barry Corr filling in at CB.

 

[Jam_Man]

Given also that most on here have said PB has no experience of managing a league2 team , i would say hes done okay in his learning curve ( 10 GAMES), and now hopefully things will improve. But saying that i think its going to be hard if we cannot sign anymore players, i think we may see before the seasons end Barry Corr filling in at CB.

Managing a league two team is all about managing on limited resources. We are going to need to get a couple more players in at some point and if we dont we are going to struggle, but we shouldnt use that as a get out of jail card.

How many players did Tilson have when we went up?

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Managing a league two team is all about managing on limited resources. We are going to need to get a couple more players in at some point and if we dont we are going to struggle, but we shouldnt use that as a get out of jail card.

How many players did Tilson have when we went up?

How many coaching and scouting staff did Tilson have when we went up?

 

[Jam_Man]

How many coaching and scouting staff did Tilson have when we went up?

Less. So even less reason for people to stop throwing in the towel and saying that Brown doesnt have what he needs.

 

[Razam]

Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how close the stats predict the reality....
So over 10 games, it would equate to:
Wins: 3.529 games x 3pts
Draws: 2.824 games x 1pt
Total (rounded-up): 13 points.

Given that we're currently on 14 points, means we're doing better that the stats would suggest. Obviously 10 games is nothing, but lets hope the trend continues getting better

Just to follow up on this, after half the season has been played:

24 games played.
Win %: 35.29% = 8.47 games
Draws %: 28.24% = 6.78 games

8.47 x 3pts = 25.41
6.78 x 1pt = 6.78
25.41 + 6.78 = 32pts (rounded down)

So given that we're on 41pts, we're doing a lot better than we (statistically) should be :thumbsup:

 

[buffalowolf]

mmmmmmmmm on that 41 points after 24 games ,looks like this is gonna be a 79 to 80 point season if we continue as in the first half, im sure if we accummalate that many ,this time we would get automatic promotion due to the evenness of the competition.

 

[chapperzUK]

Agree, reckon it could go down to the final couple of games again.

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Agree, reckon it could go down to the final couple of games again.

There seems to a difference this year in that there are no "break away" teams at the top of the league .......... so yes, it could be very tight ........ or it could just take a good run by 1 or 2 clubs now and they will be the front runners.

Interesting that Scunthorpe are top given that they sacked their (very experienced) manager only a few weeks ago ......... I wonder if Ron has noticed ............ :unsure:

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Scunny impressed me when we played them earlier in the season. Looked very solid, and I think they will be the team to beat.

 

[Razam]

A quick follow up, now this season is nearing the end:

37 games played.
Win %: 35.29% = 13.06 games
Draws %: 28.24% = 10.45 games

13.06 x 3pts = 39.18
10.45 x 1pt = 10.45
39.18 + 10.45 = 50pts (rounded up)

So given that we're on 52pts, statistically we're still doing better than we should be - despite the lack of wins in the last few games :omg:

If PB does match his statisicall average over the season, it will mean 61pts, which hasnt been enough to get into the playoffs over the last 10 years. The lowest points tally for 7th place team was 66pts by Lincoln in 2004/05, and the average points tally for 7th place being around 70pts. :unsure:

 

[Mick]

So given that we're on 52pts, statistically we're still doing better than we should be - despite the lack of wins in the last few games

I would disagree and suggest that it is very wrong to predicate where we should be on the historical statistical averages of a manager. Given where we were just a few months ago, we are most definately not doing better than we should be, statistically or otherwise !