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chaco27saf

Manager
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
1,157
Location
Denver
Alright boys and girls, it's the return of the SZ predicition league. The rules will be very similiar, if not identical, to the format XS set up a couple of seasons ago. For those that don't remember, here they are.

-There is no need to sign up, just predict.

-Points will be earned based on predicting not only the result, but goal-scorers and the time of the first goal as well. It will be 5 points for getting the correct result, 15 pts for predicting the correct scoreline, 7 points for predicting each southend goal-scorer, 25 pts for guessing the time of the first goal, and 1 pt just for predicting.

-All predictions must be either emailed or PMed to me no later than 10 minutes before the scheduled kick off. I've set up an email address for the league which is

szprediction@hotmail.com

-When predicting by email, make sure to include your SZ user name so I know who you are.

-In order to combat the problem described below, over predictions on how many Southend will score will will result in point deductions. It will be -1 pt. for 3 goals off, -4 pts. for being 4 goals off, -9 for 5 goals off, etc.

-You can predict as far an advance as you would like, and you can change your prediction if you want at any time before the cut-off. You also can send multiple predictions in one email or PM, they do not need to be seperate.

-I will post the results and cumulative scores after every match. I will try to do this as quickly as possible, but if it takes me a couple of days just be patient, I do have a personal life after all.

-There will be no prize for winning the league other than bragging rights.

-Predictions will be taken for all league and cup matches. In the case of cup matches that go into extra time, I only care about the result after 90 minutes.

So bascially this is an example what I'm looking for using a result from last season:

Southend 3-1 Col******r

Goater 2, Cole

3rd minute


It doesn't need to look exactly like this, all I care about is that all the info is there.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
 
Good man Seth. This thread deserves a pinning and so it shall be
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the more detail the better, as long as the guy at the top can handle it.

Im in, ill predict in a few days time or on the day of the game.
 
What will be used to find the "correct" time of first goal?

i.e. a certain paper? teletext? sky sports news? as the often differ, and this could cause controversy
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (fredheim_holm @ July 25 2006,22:41)]The OS would be quite simple and effective.
Yeah, I actually meant to put this down originally, and you're right, whatever the OS says is what I will use.
 
BTW - this is a page from the SZPL from a couple of seasons ago when I was still doing it (I think I passed it on quite soon after this page was updated). See here ...
 
The main issue here is the number of points available for the scorer compared with getting the score spot on.

For instance if I thought Southend might win a game 1-0, I might get the result spot on but miss out on the scorer therefore I would be better off putting Southend to win 20-0 and listing the entire Southend squad and putting likely scorers down twice. Therefore if Southend win 1-0, I would guarantee myself the 10 points for getting the scorer right and also get a couple for getting the Southend win.

If I thought Southend might lose I could put 21-20 to oppo, again listing all squad as scorers as that is where the points are.

just a thought.
 
[b said:
Quote[/b] (Xàbia Shrimper @ July 26 2006,07:49)]BTW - this is a page from the SZPL from a couple of seasons ago when I was still doing it (I think I passed it on quite soon after this page was updated). See here ...
The following have been dismissed from the ShrimperZone Prediction League for failing the minimum requirements for the month of October : Napster;

mad.gif
 
A good point has been made as far as predicting 21-0 to guarantee correct scorers for points and so on, surely some rules need to be put in place regarding correct scorers, such as your SUFC scorers only come into place, if you get within say 2 goals of how many SUFC get.  This would surely be a way to remove such predictions.  I think saying you have to get the correct amount of goals is to harsh, but maybe within 2 would be a fair way.  Thoughts?



 
Just a couple of thoughts.

Personally I'd have a lor more emphasis on the correct scoreline than the scorers. One way of doing it might be to only award goalscorers points when the scoreline is predicted correctly.

Another way to do it might be to dock points if people's home or away goals tally is more than 2 goals out. For instance, 2 goals out: 0, 3 goals out: -1, 4 goals out: -2, etc. You could even make it exponential (3:-1, 4:-4, 5:-9, etc)to punish people who try and scam with player predictions. Let's be honest, if you're 4 goals out with your prediction then you shouldn't be too aggrieved if you are docked 4 points!

It does seem a bit heavily weighted towards predicting the scorer and as TFS says, you could just list the whole squad of both teams and guarantee yourself more points than most people will get for predicting the result correctly.
 
Sorry for the delay in a reply guys. Anyways very good points about the goalscorer problem. In order to fix this I'm going award more points for correct scoreline prediction to 15 points. The points for a correct goal-scorer will be reduced to 7 points and using SITP's idea there will be a penalty for predicting too many Southend goals. I will use the exponential method he describes above. However, this will not apply for predicting too few goals, only by over predicting.

My original post has been edited to show this.
 
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