llama
Schoolboy
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2014
- Messages
- 146
I have written some very sophisticated computer software that predicts the final points tally for the League 1 teams.
Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.
Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.
For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.
These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.
This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.
So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.
So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.
Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.
This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.
Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:
As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.
The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.
So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.
However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.
The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.
The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......
My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.
Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......
Before I show you what it has predicted, I will quickly explain how it works.
Using very complex momentum oscillator algorithms, the software is able to predict the percentage chances of a Win/Draw/Loss of any match.
For example: For Southend's match this weekend at Gillingham, it is predicting that on average, Gillingham will come away with 1.20 points and Southend with 1.52 points.
These numbers are derived by calculating that Gillingham have a 30.22% chance of winning, Southend have a 40.87% chance of winning and the Draw is a 28.91% chance.
This means that if Southend were to play Gillingham 100 times on Saturday, they would score 3 points in 40.87 of the matches and they would score 1 point in 28.91 of the matches.
So for the 100 games, that is (3 x 40.87) + (1 x 28.91), which is 122.61 + 28.91 = 151.52 points.
So on average for the one match on Saturday, Southend are expected to come away with 1.52 points.
Obviously, they cannot get 1.52 points on Saturday, but the software is saying, that on average, that will be the number of points that Southend will get on Saturday.
This is a much more accurate way to predict the total number of points Southend will accumulate for the end of the season. i.e. Much better than just saying that Southend will Win/Draw/Lose a particular match.
Anyway, I have applied this concept to EVERY remaining League 1 match until the end of the season and the End of Season table looks like:
| 1st | Sheffield United | 92.41 |
| 2nd | Bolton | 83.67 |
| 3rd | Fleetwood | 79.47 |
| 4th | Scunthorpe | 79.35 |
| 5th | Southend | 75.94 |
| 6th | Bradford | 75.80 |
| 7th | Millwall | 74.82 |
| 8th | Rochdale | 74.11 |
| 9th | Oxford | 69.07 |
As we can see, it is all very close for positions 5 and 6.
The Software then goes onto predict that Southend will BEAT Scunthorpe in the Play-Off Semi-Final.
So, we are in the FINAL and as we know, anything can happen in a one-off Final.
However, do not discount Oxford completely, seeing that they are due to play SIX of the NINE teams that are currently above them.
The team that appears to have the most significant say in who gets promotion is the team that Southend play this weekend, Gillingham, seeing that they are due to play SEVEN of the current top NINE, over the next two months.
The software cannot predict injuries to key players, so one injury to a key player will make all the difference and I like to think that Southend have more strength in depth than most of our rivals, so it is all looking good......
My personal 'Emotional' prediction is that Scunthorpe, seeing that they are playing SIX of the top teams, will fall below Southend, hopefully not too much, seeing that, come the play-offs, should be the weakest team with the least momentum and hence the team that Southend would want to play.
Further updates later, as the Momentum changes for the different teams......
