The EU Referendum - What are the facts, Where are the facts

[callan]

Interesting and comprehensive reply. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure Article 50 is the only 'clean way out but can you elaborate on the bit in bold please? I'm not sure whose desire you mean and why the deal Cameron has negotiated would matter if the public have voted Out. Are you suggesting our politicians would waste their time negotiating amendments to something the public had decided against having in the first place?

Yes, Article 50 does indeed allow the best option for a break.

I think Cameron made a thorough rickets of his negotiation, Johnson could potentially go back and get a better deal and be seen to save both the Tories and the EU all at the same time.

Don't forget Cameron said if he didn't get the deal he wanted he would campaign for Brexit.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

No one is arguing the world has changed, it will continue to do so.

I'm not fully following your argument, that we shouldn't want to leave the EU, as our own system is equally as bad.

I'm saying that leaving Europe isn't the cure that most OUTers seem to think it is.

The alternative is no better in this regard, so why is this a reason for out? It nullifies that OUT argument.

You make an extremely romantic debate about trade, Gunboats and harmonisation, eu safety regulations, manufacturers being screwed, it's almost as though the European union invented the wheel and all the spokes within.

Except they didn't.

Lets break these down though;

Manufacturing - has the UK's manufacturing base shrank or enlarged since becoming members ?

Regulations - which is the higher standard, BSI or CE?

Trade - have the UK's trading levels with the EU become , better or worse since the year 2000?

Is the EU economy growing as fast as those economies outside of it?

None of those questions matter as it is viewing the world in an artificial vacuum. To make any worthwhile comparison you'd need to compare the UK in the EU to a hypothetical UK out of the EU as there are far more things going on that affect whether the manufacturing base is growing, trade levels etc.

I think with all of those the UK has done better than if we'd been outside the EU.

(My understanding is the BSI is voluntary whereas CE is a requirement to sell in Europe - so they don't really compare)

Finally;

Cricko has told me to tell you that just because you look like Herr Flick from Allo, Allo...it does not make you an Internationalist.

He goes further by encouraging to you to throw off the shackles of the inward looking, outdated and not fit for purpose EU,
and become truly global in your out look.

I am global.

I'm looking towards Canada, India, the ASEAN countries - all places where we can get a trade agreement quicker through the EU than by going it alone, when we risk letting European companies getting a foothold in there first.

 

[maninasuitcase]

How so?

I can't think of one possible detrimental effect it will have to me or my family....Perhaps you would care to expand on this?

I did post up some stuff on page 1 or 2 of the thread, but I am happy to go over it again.

Cost of goods. Goods sold in the EU have to be sold at the same price in whatever country the are purchased, subject to local taxes. This includes flights BTW. I certainly can remember the old days when things like cars and air travel were more expensive in the UK because it was deemed we could afford to pay more. Without the EU's protection, airlines and holiday companies, for example, could charge us brits more than our EU counterparts for flights and hotel rooms because they were booked in the UK.

Deregulation of EU airspace. The deregulation led directly to the formation of the budget airlines. Out of the EU, there would be no guarantee that certain routes would be given to the UK based airlines.

Mobile phone and roaming charges. Again, the EU has done a lot to bring these down to an 'acceptable' level. Out of the EU, the phone companies would be free to sting you for using your phone in Europe.

Medical bills. By signing a simple form you can get free medical care in the EU. Without that you would need to buy insurance.

Free movement within the EU. Although many cite this as a bad thing, it also means we a free to travel, work, study or retire anywhere in the EU. If you don't want to pay the UK tuition fees, you can study in an EU country where they charge less or where it is even free. There would nothing to stop a country from charging you to enter its borders, as I believe they still do in Turkey. It would be more difficult to work in the EU, EU jobs for EU citizens.

Clean beaches. Maybe a minor thing, but for a long time the beaches in Britain were terrible and no one was cleaning them up. And of course the same standards apply throughout the EU.

Workers rights. The EU has done loads to improve the work life balance from bringing down the maximum working week, introducing minimum holidays, breaks, parental leave and the rights of pregnant workers. I seem to recall all the scaremongering that went on at the time when the EU wanted to bring down the maximum working week to 48 hours and that it would lead to mass unemployment.

In my opinion, we are better off in the EU. We enjoy better consumer and workers rights, and cheaper goods and services because of it. I don't believe leaving the EU will lead us to nirvana and our home grown politicians are quite capable of making bad laws as anyone else, for example IDS and his welfare reforms.

I hope that has answered your question Callan.

 

[callan]

I did post up some stuff on page 1 or 2 of the thread, but I am happy to go over it again.

Cost of goods. Goods sold in the EU have to be sold at the same price in whatever country the are purchased, subject to local taxes. This includes flights BTW. I certainly can remember the old days when things like cars and air travel were more expensive in the UK because it was deemed we could afford to pay more. Without the EU's protection, airlines and holiday companies, for example, could charge us brits more than our EU counterparts for flight and hotel rooms because the were booked in the UK.

Deregulation of EU airspace. The deregulation led directly to the formation of the budget airlines. Out of the EU, there would be no guarantee that certain routes would be given to the UK based airlines.

Mobile phone and roaming charges. Again, the EU has done a lot to bring these down to an 'acceptable' level. Out of the EU, the phone companies would be free to sting you for using your phone in Europe.

Medical bills. By signing a simple form you can get free medical care in the EU. Without that you would need to buy insurance.

Free movement within the EU. Although many cite this as a bad thing, it also means we a free to travel, work, study or retire anywhere in the EU. If you don't want to pay the UK tuition fees, you can study in an EU country where they charge less or where it is even free. There would nothing to stop a country from charging you to enter its borders, as I believe they still do in Turkey. It would be more difficult to work in the EU, EU jobs for EU citizens.

Clean beaches. Maybe a minor thing, but for a long time the beaches in Britain were terrible and no one was clearing them up. And of course the same standards apply throughout the EU.

Workers rights. The EU has done loads to improve the work life balance from bringing down the maximum working week, introducing minimum holidays, breaks, parental leave and the rights of pregnant workers. I seem to recall all the scaremongering that went on at the time when the EU wanted to bring down the maximum working week to 48 hours that it would lead to mass unemployment.

In my opinion, we are better off in the EU. We enjoy better consumer and workers rights, and cheaper goods and services because of it. I don't believe leaving the EU will lead us to nirvana and our home grown politicians are quite capable of making bad laws as anyone else, for example IDS and his welfare reforms.

I hope that has answered your question Callan.

Thanks, I think that it is probably the best and most honest of pro european arguments I have read on the zone so far.

Do you see any down side to the EU?

 

[maninasuitcase]

Thanks, I think that it is probably the best and most honest of pro european arguments I have read on the zone so far.

Do you see any down side to the EU?

Yes, the EU wastes too much money on bureaucracy. The moving of parliament from Strasbourg to Brussels each month for example.

 

[callan]

I'm saying that leaving Europe isn't the cure that most OUTers seem to think it is.

The alternative is no better in this regard, so why is this a reason for out? It nullifies that OUT argument.



None of those questions matter as it is viewing the world in an artificial vacuum. To make any worthwhile comparison you'd need to compare the UK in the EU to a hypothetical UK out of the EU as there are far more things going on that affect whether the manufacturing base is growing, trade levels etc.

I think with all of those the UK has done better than if we'd been outside the EU.

(My understanding is the BSI is voluntary whereas CE is a requirement to sell in Europe - so they don't really compare)



I am global.

I'm looking towards Canada, India, the ASEAN countries - all places where we can get a trade agreement quicker through the EU than by going it alone, when we risk letting European companies getting a foothold in there first.

So what is the cure then, something which you claimed earlier is equally as bad?

As far as the questions are concerned they are wholly legitimate, there is nothing hypothetical about the UK's performance whilst in the EU or the EU's performance as a stand alone.

You know already though on all counts the answers are negative towards the EU.

Canada isn't perhaps a good example of how quickly the EU can get us a trade deal (7 years and counting?), so lets skip past that one.

India should be shining example of a good trade deal, and with our joint history, commonwealth ties, a reasonable sized Indian population in the UK etc everything should be going for us....plus if, as you contest the EU would be quicker than the Uk at securing a trade deal....how is it that the last time I looked the EU / India free trade deal which has been on the table since 2007, it had completely stalled and the Indian President cancelled his trip to Brussels out of frustration.

For the record we the UK, are ranked 18th in terms of trade with India.

I make that going on for 9 years....

17 years to secure two trade deals...its no wonder that that the EU has the lowest growth of any trading bloc,....hardly surprising that the UK manufacturing base has all but disappeared....we don't conform to the highest standards any more, just the minimum set by the EU.
Our trade with the EU has declined considerably.


Being part of European Union doesn't make you global, that is what's beyond Europe... and if I didn't think for one minute that young adventurous, qualified people such as yourself (and there are many more on here) were capable of forging a new and better future for our country I wouldn't be considering voting to leave.

 

[callan]

Yes, the EU wastes too much money on bureaucracy. The moving of parliament from Strasbourg to Brussels each month for example.

Thanks.

Is it possible that there is also a downside for the man in the street?

For example pressure on wages for the low paid?

Pressure on housing stock, and higher costs.

Pressure on school places.

Pressure on hospitals.

Pressure on social care services.

Pressure on infrastructure.

Also I would state there is still a need for insurance whilst travelling in the EU.

 

[Gremlin]

Yes, Article 50 does indeed allow the best option for a break.

I think Cameron made a thorough rickets of his negotiation, Johnson could potentially go back and get a better deal and be seen to save both the Tories and the EU all at the same time.

Don't forget Cameron said if he didn't get the deal he wanted he would campaign for Brexit.

You're losing me now. Under what authority could Johnson or anyone other than the PM do that? And, more to the point, why would they if the public had voted Out? That would surely sound the death knell for the Tories at the next general election.

 

[londonblue]

I did post up some stuff on page 1 or 2 of the thread, but I am happy to go over it again.

Cost of goods. Goods sold in the EU have to be sold at the same price in whatever country the are purchased, subject to local taxes. This includes flights BTW. I certainly can remember the old days when things like cars and air travel were more expensive in the UK because it was deemed we could afford to pay more. Without the EU's protection, airlines and holiday companies, for example, could charge us brits more than our EU counterparts for flights and hotel rooms because they were booked in the UK.

Deregulation of EU airspace. The deregulation led directly to the formation of the budget airlines. Out of the EU, there would be no guarantee that certain routes would be given to the UK based airlines.

Mobile phone and roaming charges. Again, the EU has done a lot to bring these down to an 'acceptable' level. Out of the EU, the phone companies would be free to sting you for using your phone in Europe.

Medical bills. By signing a simple form you can get free medical care in the EU. Without that you would need to buy insurance.

Free movement within the EU. Although many cite this as a bad thing, it also means we a free to travel, work, study or retire anywhere in the EU. If you don't want to pay the UK tuition fees, you can study in an EU country where they charge less or where it is even free. There would nothing to stop a country from charging you to enter its borders, as I believe they still do in Turkey. It would be more difficult to work in the EU, EU jobs for EU citizens.

Clean beaches. Maybe a minor thing, but for a long time the beaches in Britain were terrible and no one was cleaning them up. And of course the same standards apply throughout the EU.

Workers rights. The EU has done loads to improve the work life balance from bringing down the maximum working week, introducing minimum holidays, breaks, parental leave and the rights of pregnant workers. I seem to recall all the scaremongering that went on at the time when the EU wanted to bring down the maximum working week to 48 hours and that it would lead to mass unemployment.

In my opinion, we are better off in the EU. We enjoy better consumer and workers rights, and cheaper goods and services because of it. I don't believe leaving the EU will lead us to nirvana and our home grown politicians are quite capable of making bad laws as anyone else, for example IDS and his welfare reforms.

I hope that has answered your question Callan.

But apart from that, what has the EU ever done for us?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

But apart from that, what has the EU ever done for us?

Funded lots of infrastructure improvements in Spain and in poorer regions of the UK (like Cornwall) before the new accession countries came on board and took up a place at the front of the queue for handouts.:winking:

 

[Uncle Leo]

I've been chatting about the EU over email with a mate who works in water management. This is a bit ranty, but interesting...

" I think Europe has been fantastic for setting environmental compliance and improvement frameworks that hold individual countries to account. It's no secret that the tories seek deregulation and do not take the environmental agenda seriously enough. Without Europe's influence through Directives, this government would have been allowed to dilute our regularity and compliance standards. Selfishly, that makes my job less relevant! European funding has also allowed so many great on the ground projects and research programmes to go ahead here, but for some reason we don't make the public aware (enough) of these positive interventions like they do on the Continent with signs emblazoned with European funding logos."

Another thing is how freedom of movement has allowed organisations like the NHS to maintain staff levels where there is a huge reliance on European workers to fill roles that Brits just aren't bothered/interested in training in. On my wife's unit, [ICU at a large hospital in Berkshire] 50% of the nursing and HCA staff are Portuguese. These arguments are not being articulated, and instead we have largely big ego'd politicians and business heads banging on about the same old boring **** about what trade agreements will or wont be like and/or how important it is to control our borders, and using emotive dog**** arguments about how we're different because we have a deeper history or heritage than those europeans (so says Michael Howard, forgetting we were ******** in holes in our huts whilst the Italians invented sewerage systems) blah blah blah blah"

 

[callan]

You're losing me now. Under what authority could Johnson or anyone other than the PM do that? And, more to the point, why would they if the public had voted Out? That would surely sound the death knell for the Tories at the next general election.

The clue of course is ''anyone other than the PM''.

Cameron has already stated that he will not serve a full term, and how tenable his position would be should a leave vote become reality, It is difficult to see how he could stay on.

An out vote would be seen as not only a rejection of the EU but also the terms of Cameron's deal, current cabinet ministers are already on record as stating that they may want a second referendum as the first deal wasn't sufficient.

It would not be beyond the realms of fantasy, for whoever takes over from Cameron to use the time between invoking article 50 negotiating a different deal and possibly putting that deal back to the UK electorate.

I'm not saying that would or should happen, but it is perfectly feasible that the end game is not the outcome of the vote on the 23rd of June.

Possibly with the exception of Labour, an out vote would be damaging for the Tories, UKIP and potentially the SNP.
The Tories should be capable of riding the storm, whilst UKIP and SNP could end up back in the wilderness.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

So what is the cure then, something which you claimed earlier is equally as bad?

As far as the questions are concerned they are wholly legitimate, there is nothing hypothetical about the UK's performance whilst in the EU or the EU's performance as a stand alone.

You know already though on all counts the answers are negative towards the EU.

Canada isn't perhaps a good example of how quickly the EU can get us a trade deal (7 years and counting?), so lets skip past that one.

India should be shining example of a good trade deal, and with our joint history, commonwealth ties, a reasonable sized Indian population in the UK etc everything should be going for us....plus if, as you contest the EU would be quicker than the Uk at securing a trade deal....how is it that the last time I looked the EU / India free trade deal which has been on the table since 2007, it had completely stalled and the Indian President cancelled his trip to Brussels out of frustration.

For the record we the UK, are ranked 18th in terms of trade with India.

I make that going on for 9 years....

17 years to secure two trade deals...its no wonder that that the EU has the lowest growth of any trading bloc,....hardly surprising that the UK manufacturing base has all but disappeared....we don't conform to the highest standards any more, just the minimum set by the EU.
Our trade with the EU has declined considerably.


Being part of European Union doesn't make you global, that is what's beyond Europe... and if I didn't think for one minute that young adventurous, qualified people such as yourself (and there are many more on here) were capable of forging a new and better future for our country I wouldn't be considering voting to leave.

Trade deals take a long time to get sorted. That's true of the EU as it is elsewhere. Progress has been made with Canada, with India and we'd be throwing that progress away if we started from scratch. We'd also have a worse bargaining position and less clout.

Look at how few trade agreements Australia or Switerzland have compared to the EU.

As for what I'd do, I think it's time for a written constitution in the UK. Wholesale reform of Parliament instead of patching things up. Parliament and the UK constitution is no longer fit for purpose.

For Europe I'd push for reforms - one of the disappointing thing was the **** shopping list Cameron went with. It's not as if we'd be the only country who wants the way Europe operates improved. There would be plenty of willing partners.

What we've done appallingly badly is build these European coalitions. Changes can be made but you need to be inside, not out, to make them. What I'll never forgive Blair for is Iraq - not only was it bloody stupid and undemocratic but it also ruined the opportunity he had to lead Europe. Britain could have been at the forefront. Maybe Cameron can do that if he keeps the UK inside. There are many countries whose interests are aligned with ours if we can forget petty domestic politics and try and lead.

 

[callan]

Trade deals take a long time to get sorted. That's true of the EU as it is elsewhere. Progress has been made with Canada, with India and we'd be throwing that progress away if we started from scratch. We'd also have a worse bargaining position and less clout.

Look at how few trade agreements Australia or Switerzland have compared to the EU.

As for what I'd do, I think it's time for a written constitution in the UK. Wholesale reform of Parliament instead of patching things up. Parliament and the UK constitution is no longer fit for purpose.

For Europe I'd push for reforms - one of the disappointing thing was the **** shopping list Cameron went with. It's not as if we'd be the only country who wants the way Europe operates improved. There would be plenty of willing partners.

What we've done appallingly badly is build these European coalitions. Changes can be made but you need to be inside, not out, to make them. What I'll never forgive Blair for is Iraq - not only was it bloody stupid and undemocratic but it also ruined the opportunity he had to lead Europe. Britain could have been at the forefront. Maybe Cameron can do that if he keeps the UK inside. There are many countries whose interests are aligned with ours if we can forget petty domestic politics and try and lead.

Trade aside, I would agree that both our own and the EU need to relook at our current constitutions.

The difficulty with the EU is how much appetite they have for change, and desire for reform bearing in mind a shared currency and ambition for ever closer political union, which are certainly not ambitions of the UK.

If we were outside of the EU,we wouldn't need to have to change or reform it.

We would be free to either form our own Trading bloc and make it non political, or resume our seat at the World trade organisation.

 

[callan]

I've been chatting about the EU over email with a mate who works in water management. This is a bit ranty, but interesting...

" I think Europe has been fantastic for setting environmental compliance and improvement frameworks that hold individual countries to account. It's no secret that the tories seek deregulation and do not take the environmental agenda seriously enough. Without Europe's influence through Directives, this government would have been allowed to dilute our regularity and compliance standards. Selfishly, that makes my job less relevant! European funding has also allowed so many great on the ground projects and research programmes to go ahead here, but for some reason we don't make the public aware (enough) of these positive interventions like they do on the Continent with signs emblazoned with European funding logos."

Another thing is how freedom of movement has allowed organisations like the NHS to maintain staff levels where there is a huge reliance on European workers to fill roles that Brits just aren't bothered/interested in training in. On my wife's unit, [ICU at a large hospital in Berkshire] 50% of the nursing and HCA staff are Portuguese. These arguments are not being articulated, and instead we have largely big ego'd politicians and business heads banging on about the same old boring **** about what trade agreements will or wont be like and/or how important it is to control our borders, and using emotive dog**** arguments about how we're different because we have a deeper history or heritage than those europeans (so says Michael Howard, forgetting we were ******** in holes in our huts whilst the Italians invented sewerage systems) blah blah blah blah"

The part about the nurses should be raising alarm bells, everywhere.

Why aren't we capable of training our own young, to fill these roles ?

How many UK nurses are leaving to fill posts abroad, and what impact does that have?

In terms of plugging a skills gap does the freedom of movement help or hinder us in the long term?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-33201189

What effect in terms of Brain drain does this have on Portugal, who's economy is struggling?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-33691084

By nature the Freedom of movement is discriminatory, shouldn't we be hiring globally where needed in order to plug our own gaps rather than confining ourselves to preferential treatment of EU citizens?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-33678773

 

[Medway Blue]

Not a big fan of the Daily Fail but interesting argument nevertheless. This guy and Longworth have been the only 2 people I've seen make decent claims/forecasts about post-Brexit Britain without having much in the way of self-interest, unlike most of the politicians and big business leaders who keep stringing out the scare tactics. And these 2 both have years of economic and business experience to draw on which means they're entitled to have people listen to what they say.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3486917/We-ll-invest-UK-quit-EU-says-super-rich-Norway.html


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[Medway Blue]

Like this one too:

http://getbritainout.org/sovereignty-what-sovereignty/


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