THE FALLOUT FOR NEXT SEASON

[TMWLT]

next season is not going to be the bed of roses I think everyone assumes it will be. Looking first of all at the finances, the drop off for the gates will equate to around £50,000 each game which over the course of the season will be over £1.1m, then of course there is the sky money, which I believe equates to about £1m, which of course will be lost. so thats £2m down the pan straight away, and thats based on achieving an average crowd of 5,000, if the club struggle badly then crowds of 4,000 might just be achievable. added to that the playign staff, some of whom will be on 3 year contracts, at higher wages, and you can see the fallout from us being relegated this season. What it means that those that hold the purse string aka gk will have to in conjunction with the commerical dept work their preverbal nuts off, to get punters through the door, and its no good trying to charge £22 to watch us at home to rotherham on a tuesday night champions league night. they will have to entice kiddies through the door at £1 for kids, and more of the chicos out on the pitch. Now given Gm financial background and his complete indifference to us the fans, I wouldnt hold my breath. it amazes me that he is put in a position of care of the finances.

this of course means that gap between the cost of the new stadium and the sale of roots hall will widen. the debt at the club is £3m, and the last 2 years of success and cup runs have undoubtably reduced the debt, and the sale of eastwood for around £1.75m will reduce the debt further, i wouldnt bet on any extra players coming in from the sale of eastwood.

 

[Rayleigh boy]

looking forward to cheering on the Blues all Saturday
afternoon and celebrating three points and a win over
a big club with big support and a big stadium and millions pumped in over the years and this victory acheived by a
small but beautifully formed club from Essex -

get off your knees -

 

[Jonny_Stokes]

Fallout? I blame Polonium-210

 

[Jam_Man]

This club is based on the finances of a league one side, not a championship side.

Our wage budget has always been set that way, and Ron Martin has ensured that even though we are in this division we wont be crippled by relegation.

The new stadium was planned before we got promoted and the whole point of it is to generate income 24/7 and not just from football.

The man is sensible and hasnt gambled financial security on this one season.

Relegation will mean we arent earning what we are this year, but they will have it budgeted. Rather than looking at what we will lose next year think about what we gained this season, which is all far above what would have been expected a year or two ago.

 

[leeblue]

I believe we will bounce back to this division, if we go down. Everyone saw the support double etc when success was acheived on the pitch, but i believe our downfall this year is largely down to factors off it. Such as our wage structure, facilities etc roots hall has actually held us back. The financing of the new stadium is well sorted, Ron Martin would not base any plans on the fickle nature of a football team and when we come back to this division we will be better suited to do well in it.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

In terms of football it wont be easy too. Look at Notts Forest last season, Millwall this season.

Everyone seems to be assuming that we will bounce straight back up, but after having a season of losing, it will be hard to pick that straight back up.

After all, we won league 1 because of our great start which was built on the winning mentallity and team spirit from the season before.

That works the other way around also.

If we get relegated this year, I predict nr more than a flirt with the play offs from 2007-2008, but improvement the year after, and maybe getting back into the Championship a few seasons later with the new ground behind us.

However if we survive this season, I would expect an easy mid-table finish in the championship next season based on the play-off form that we are going to have to show in the next 26 games. Then with the new ground we could sustain that position.

The next few months will shape the destiny of our club for the next 3 or 4 years, and it could take us at least that amount of time to get back to where we are now.

 

[leeblue]

Good point TTB, depends if tilly does the right thing and clears out a few players in summer, thus bringing in new faces to end losing ways, first thing keane done at sunderland was ship out a load of the players who were in that losing mode.

 

[Jonny_Stokes]

Quote[/b] (Trust Treasurer Bloke @ Nov. 29 2006,13:35)]If we get relegated this year, I predict nr more than a flirt with the play offs from 2007-2008, but improvement the year after, and maybe getting back into the Championship a few seasons later with the new ground behind us.

However if we survive this season, I would expect an easy mid-table finish in the championship next season based on the play-off form that we are going to have to show in the next 26 games.  Then with the new ground we could sustain that position.

The next few months will shape the destiny of our club for the next 3 or 4 years, and it could take us at least that amount of time to get back to where we are now.

NO, NO, NO!!! WHAT YOU NEED IS A SHORT-TERM FIX!!!!! SHORT-TERM!!!!

(remember kids, shouting means you're right).

 

[J]

Quote[/b] (Jonny_Stokes @ Nov. 29 2006,13:43)](remember kids, shouting means you're right).

ok


YOU ARE A.....







there we go..we agree

 

[SARF]

Carlisle hit the conference, they are doing ok now..
Oxford are getting 6k crowds in each week..
Relegation is part of football, its not the end of the world...

 

[EastStandBlue]

With all due respect, we won't be having the off the field troubles both Millwall and Forest had last/this season respectively and we are by far a better team than Millwall...

I'd put my house on the fact that, if Millwall, Crewe and Brighton were in this division this year, we'd be safe.

 

[Bromley Blue]

I am of the opinion that should we go down next season's target would primarily be to survive in league one. Like has already been discussed, winning and losing mentalities can have massive effects on results. Therefore confidence could be at an all-time low come May time. I know this is a bit doom and gloom but I do tend to agree that should we go down it may take us a few seasons to get back.

However, I dont personally see this as a problem. RM and the board would have definately not based the finances for the building of the new stadium on us staying up til we move in.

As hard as it is I dont think we should get too downhearted about this season. We all knew it was going to be a struggle but we just have to remember that should be reach this level again in 4 or 5 years time in a brand new stadium we are much more likely to make a real shot of it.

I've got a lot of stick this season from friends who support "bigger" clubs but I will always fight back with "if we had your club's resources then you can take the ****."

Strangely enough the Utd friends of mine have been strangely subdued

Chins up Southend...looking at the bigger picture things are still on track for RM's masterplan whatever happens in 06/07

 

[SARF]

Every bit of success attracts a few more fans who will either stay or come back at the hint of more success.. its how any club grows..

 

[Andy_Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (TMWLT @ Nov. 29 2006,13:07)]and its no good trying to charge £22 to watch us at home to rotherham on a tuesday night champions league night.

? - personally I would rather go see my club on a Tuesday night against Rotherham or anyone else than I would to watch a club I am not interested in playing in the Champoins League

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

To put the next season's performance into perspective & if it's tricky to turn a losing mentality into a winning one, from the past 10 years data 2004/05 to 1995/96 & measuring performance the next season: -

Clubs who finished 21st:
Crewe 04/05 got relegated 05/06 (22nd place)
Gillingham 03/04 got relegated 04/05 (22nd place)
Port Vale 98/99 got relegated 99/00 (23rd place)

Relegated teams:
Only one team has bounced straight back up automatically, Crewe in 02/03.
4 relegated teams have won the 3rd tier playoffs the next season, Brighton 2004, Walsall 2001, Man City 1999 & Grimsby 1998.
Huddersfield (2002) & Luton (1997) both got to the playoffs but were defeated.
2 teams fell straight through Div 2/L1 into the bottom tier, Alvin Martin's Barmy Army [cough, cough] in 1998 & Grimsby in 2004.
The vast majority finished midtable or if they were lucky just outside the playoffs.

 

[C C Csiders]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 29 2006,15:46)]To put the next season's performance into perspective & if it's tricky to turn a losing mentality into a winning one, from the past 10 years data 2004/05 to 1995/96 & measuring performance the next season: -

Clubs who finished 21st:
Crewe 04/05 got relegated 05/06 (22nd place)
Gillingham 03/04 got relegated 04/05 (22nd place)
Port Vale 98/99 got relegated 99/00 (23rd place)

Relegated teams:
Only one team has bounced straight back up automatically, Crewe in 02/03.
4 relegated teams have won the 3rd tier playoffs the next season, Brighton 2004, Walsall 2001, Man City 1999 & Grimsby 1998.
Huddersfield (2002) & Luton (1997) both got to the playoffs but were defeated.
2 teams fell straight through Div 2/L1 into the bottom tier, Alvin Martin's Barmy Army [cough, cough] in 1998 & Grimsby in 2004.
The vast majority finished midtable or if they were lucky just outside the playoffs.

That shows a surprisingly good record for relegated clubs - and some hope for next season, if we indeed do fall through the old trap-door.

 

[Shrimp Sarnie]

it was posted here the other day "nice new ground with nothing to go in it"

and that is right, if we get relegated the team is likly to break up,

Flavs has been in good form and was league 1 and 2 goalkepper of the season 2 years running, Ideall signing for Portsmouth, Charlton or Southampton even palace.

Prior will retire

sodge may go or retire

JCR will go to watford/palace or some one like that

francis and hammell might go as they do have good pedigrees and will be easy to sign and cheap to buy.

Eastwood will allready be gone.

Hooper will go as all the clubs watching eastwood will relise that he could be even better.

Clark and Paynter will want to go as most people seem to be blaming them for our demise.

Bradders wil be snapped up by brighton or Bournemouth


next Seasons team

Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]it was posted here the other day "nice new ground with nothing to go in it"

and that is right, if we get relegated the team is likly to break up,

Flavs has been in good form and was league 1 and 2 goalkepper of the season 2 years running, Ideall signing for Portsmouth, Charlton or Southampton even palace.

Prior will retire

sodge may go or retire

JCR will go to watford/palace or some one like that

francis and hammell might go as they do have good pedigrees and will be easy to sign and cheap to buy.

Eastwood will allready be gone.

Hooper will go as all the clubs watching eastwood will relise that he could be even better.

Clark and Paynter will want to go as most people seem to be blaming them for our demise.

Bradders wil be snapped up by brighton or Bournemouth


next Seasons team

Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Anyone know the number of samaritans?

 

[C C Csiders]

Quote[/b] (Billy Bests boot laces @ Nov. 29 2006,15:58)]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]it was posted here the other day "nice new ground with nothing to go in it"

and that is right, if we get relegated the team is likly to break up,

Flavs has been in good form and was league 1 and 2 goalkepper of the season 2 years running, Ideall signing for Portsmouth, Charlton or Southampton even palace.

Prior will retire

sodge may go or retire

JCR will go to watford/palace or some one like that

francis and hammell might go as they do have good pedigrees and will be easy to sign and cheap to buy.

Eastwood will allready be gone.

Hooper will go as all the clubs watching eastwood will relise that he could be even better.

Clark and Paynter will want to go as most people seem to be blaming them for our demise.

Bradders wil be snapped up by brighton or Bournemouth


next Seasons team

Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Anyone know the number of samaritans?

There could be upto 2,000 of them throughout the country.

 

[Napster]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Flavs won't go anywhere.

Hunt will go to Canvey/Grays, Che will go to Orient, Lawson will go to Notts C, Gower Stevenage, Maher Col U, Cole will go on perpetual loan. Paynter will break up with his woman and go back up North and Harrold will go to Southend Manor