THE FALLOUT FOR NEXT SEASON

[Mick]

Quote[/b] (C C Csiders @ Nov. 29 2006,15:49)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 29 2006,15:46)]To put the next season's performance into perspective & if it's tricky to turn a losing mentality into a winning one, from the past 10 years data 2004/05 to 1995/96 & measuring performance the next season: -

Clubs who finished 21st:
Crewe 04/05 got relegated 05/06 (22nd place)
Gillingham 03/04 got relegated 04/05 (22nd place)
Port Vale 98/99 got relegated 99/00 (23rd place)

Relegated teams:
Only one team has bounced straight back up automatically, Crewe in 02/03.
4 relegated teams have won the 3rd tier playoffs the next season, Brighton 2004, Walsall 2001, Man City 1999 & Grimsby 1998.
Huddersfield (2002) & Luton (1997) both got to the playoffs but were defeated.
2 teams fell straight through Div 2/L1 into the bottom tier, Alvin Martin's Barmy Army [cough, cough] in 1998 & Grimsby in 2004.
The vast majority finished midtable or if they were lucky just outside the playoffs.

That shows a surprisingly good record for relegated clubs - and some hope for next season, if we indeed do fall through the old trap-door.

Surprisingly good ?

A one in six chance of going back up? 84% of relegated sides don't bounce back up again.

They'd be a one in eight chance if it were done randomly!

Those stats support the initial tenet of this thread perfectly.

 

[number11]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]Flavs has been in good form and was league 1 and 2 goalkepper of the season 2 years running, Ideall signing for Portsmouth, Charlton or Southampton even palace.

Prior will retire

sodge may go or retire

JCR will go to watford/palace or some one like that

francis and hammell might go as they do have good pedigrees and will be easy to sign and cheap to buy.

Eastwood will allready be gone.

Hooper will go as all the clubs watching eastwood will relise that he could be even better.

Clark and Paynter will want to go as most people seem to be blaming them for our demise.

Bradders wil be snapped up by brighton or Bournemouth


next Seasons team

Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Whilst not knowing the length of some players contract,

I would see Flavs leaving to play in Div 1 (prob as a back up). After appearing in best team of season, and his Man U exploits im sure he will be able to find a Championship club and I wouldnt begrudge him that.

Prior will retire but Sodge may stick around as he hasnt been outclassed in championship this season. Clark Francis and Hammel are under contract so unless we bring in money for them they could still be around, and in the case of Clark and Francis this will be a return to a level they have excelled at with previous clubs. Barrett will stay and has proved adequate, if not great, at league one level, likewise Hunt.

Maher, I think he will stick around for a testimonial, and McCormack if signes permanently will know the prospect of relegation looms large and so should stick around. Gower and JCR may get other clubs sniffing but can see them staying and doing well in League 1.

The interesting one is Hooper, who looks to have something about him. Im sure though he only signed a one year deal....making him a free agent. He strikes me as the kind of person (or his dad does) who will go to whoever can offer him the most money and so be interesting if we can keep him. A year in League 1 could be good for him.

Basically then, other then Eastwood, and possibly Flavs, I cant see many leaving for greater things and big money.

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

Quote[/b] (Napster @ Nov. 29 2006,16:03)]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Flavs won't go anywhere.

Hunt will go to Canvey/Grays, Che will go to Orient, Lawson will go to Notts C, Gower Stevenage, Maher Col U, Cole will go on perpetual loan. Paynter will break up with his woman and go back up North and Harrold will go to Southend Manor

Sodje to Great Wakering Rovers?

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Mick @ Nov. 29 2006,16:04)]Those stats support the initial tenet of this thread perfectly.

Cheers, thought they were indeed relevant.
Dampened my optimism somewhat

 

[C C Csiders]

Quote[/b] (Mick @ Nov. 29 2006,16:04)]

Quote[/b] (C C Csiders @ Nov. 29 2006,15:49)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ Nov. 29 2006,15:46)]To put the next season's performance into perspective & if it's tricky to turn a losing mentality into a winning one, from the past 10 years data 2004/05 to 1995/96 & measuring performance the next season: -

Clubs who finished 21st:
Crewe 04/05 got relegated 05/06 (22nd place)
Gillingham 03/04 got relegated 04/05 (22nd place)
Port Vale 98/99 got relegated 99/00 (23rd place)

Relegated teams:
Only one team has bounced straight back up automatically, Crewe in 02/03.
4 relegated teams have won the 3rd tier playoffs the next season, Brighton 2004, Walsall 2001, Man City 1999 & Grimsby 1998.
Huddersfield (2002) & Luton (1997) both got to the playoffs but were defeated.
2 teams fell straight through Div 2/L1 into the bottom tier, Alvin Martin's Barmy Army [cough, cough] in 1998 & Grimsby in 2004.
The vast majority finished midtable or if they were lucky just outside the playoffs.

That shows a surprisingly good record for relegated clubs - and some hope for next season, if we indeed do fall through the old trap-door.

Surprisingly good ?  

A one in six chance of going back up? 84% of relegated sides don't bounce back up again.

They'd be a one in eight chance if it were done randomly!

Those stats support the initial tenet of this thread perfectly.

Yes, surprisingly good in relation to finishing position. I had it in my head that the majority would finish below mid-table, with far more than just us and Grimsby going straight down to League Two.

 

[Napster]

Quote[/b] (Billy Bests boot laces @ Nov. 29 2006,16:05)]

Quote[/b] (Napster @ Nov. 29 2006,16:03)]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs  

Flavs won't go anywhere.

Hunt will go to Canvey/Grays, Che will go to Orient, Lawson will go to Notts C, Gower Stevenage, Maher Col U, Cole will go on perpetual loan. Paynter will break up with his woman and go back up North and Harrold will go to Southend Manor

Sodje to Great Wakering Rovers?

Ooh good call. And Riera to Frome

 

[Shrimp Sarnie]

Quote[/b] (number11 @ Nov. 29 2006,16:05)]

Quote[/b] (Shrimp Sarnie @ Nov. 29 2006,15:54)]Flavs has been in good form and was league 1 and 2 goalkepper of the season 2 years running, Ideall signing for Portsmouth, Charlton or Southampton even palace.

Prior will retire

sodge may go or retire

JCR will go to watford/palace or some one like that

francis and hammell might go as they do have good pedigrees and will be easy to sign and cheap to buy.

Eastwood will allready be gone.

Hooper will go as all the clubs watching eastwood will relise that he could be even better.

Clark and Paynter will want to go as most people seem to be blaming them for our demise.

Bradders wil be snapped up by brighton or Bournemouth


next Seasons team

Colis

hunt barret clark che

lawson gower maher cole

paynter harrold

and no subs

Whilst not knowing the length of some players contract,

I would see Flavs leaving to play in Div 1 (prob as a back up). After appearing in best team of season, and his Man U exploits im sure he will be able to find a Championship club and I wouldnt begrudge him that.

Prior will retire but Sodge may stick around as he hasnt been outclassed in championship this season. Clark Francis and Hammel are under contract so unless we bring in money for them they could still be around, and in the case of Clark and Francis this will be a return to a level they have excelled at with previous clubs. Barrett will stay and has proved adequate, if not great, at league one level, likewise Hunt.

Maher, I think he will stick around for a testimonial, and McCormack if signes permanently will know the prospect of relegation looms large and so should stick around. Gower and JCR may get other clubs sniffing but can see them staying and doing well in League 1.

The interesting one is Hooper, who looks to have something about him. Im sure though he only signed a one year deal....making him a free agent. He strikes me as the kind of person (or his dad does) who will go to whoever can offer him the most money and so be interesting if we can keep him. A year in League 1 could be good for him.

Basically then, other then Eastwood, and possibly Flavs, I cant see many leaving for greater things and big money.

You seem to see it he same ways as me.

I wondor how much money brush will have to spend.

yes brush!

tilly will go to palace or watford cos he WILL go and RM will see it as a chance to blame next seasons midtable missery on the new managers settling in.

the stadium will be posponed due to lack of funds

 

[Angell Delight]

Quote[/b] (Trust Treasurer Bloke @ Nov. 29 2006,13:35)]Everyone seems to be assuming that we will bounce straight back up

I don't, I think the next time we'll feature in the Championship we'll be playing in the new stadium - it's vital to our chances of coming back as there'll be no Freddy Eastwood from next season on.

On the plus side L1 will give Hooper a chance to shine and improve himself in the first-team more regularly and much of the squad (who we all know are good L1 players but can't cut it at this level) should perform better back in the 3rd tier. Peter Clarke built his glowing reputation in L1 - maybe he'll show us what a good player he is back at that level.

 

[Xàbia Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Trust Treasurer Bloke @ Nov. 29 2006,14:35)]Everyone seems to be assuming that we will bounce straight back up, but after having a season of losing, it will be hard to pick that straight back up.

No, not everyone. I don't and I think it would be pretty naive to assume that we would bounce back.

In my opinion we reached this level purely by chance; we shouldn't be here yet and back in the summer I was flamed spectacularly for suggesting so on this forum. Six months later I stand by that opinion and a quick glance at the latest league table would seem to back it up. I'm not going to 'do a wiggy' and shout "Told you so!" in a smug fashion from the rooftops but I will say that we shouldn't be surprised at our current predicament.

What is worse is that I agree with Mr H and I think that the club will suffer next season in League One. I seriously doubt that the short-term plan (and subsequent budget) included a spell in the Championship so quickly. The club needs to make a decision; throw cash about in an attempt to shore up defences and cling onto a place in the Championship (do we have the money?) or retreat gracefully to League One and start again (do we have the character?).

Depressing, isn't ... ?

 

[Mick]

Quote[/b] (Xàbia Shrimper @ Nov. 29 2006,17:06)][ throw cash about in an attempt to shore up defences and cling onto a place in the Championship (do we have the money?) or retreat gracefully to League One and start again (do we have the character?).

worst case, we do both.

 

[Xàbia Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Mick @ Nov. 29 2006,18:28)]

Quote[/b] (Xàbia Shrimper @ Nov. 29 2006,17:06)][ throw cash about in an attempt to shore up defences and cling onto a place in the Championship (do we have the money?) or retreat gracefully to League One and start again (do we have the character?).

worst case, we do both.  

Indeed. And I think we both suspect that might actually be the case?