The greatest race festival in the world tomorrow

[Blueronron]

Roll on tomorrow and a feast of racing,got my ticket for Weds

Please no trolls about how bad this is for horses,if you want to moan start your own thread, come on whats the fancies over next few days

Day one Race one"Fiddlerontheroof" to start me off

 

[Napster]

Ballyandy in the 330

 

[Ricky Otto]

Over the years I have worked a system that has been fruitful 4 of the last 5 years. OLBG give you trend analysis stats and I tweak it slightly with Cheltenham form included as I much prefer horses that have Cheltenham pedigree. It is such a stamina zapping track with the hill at the end of the race that previous track form is important IMO. Anyway OLBG give you stats like:

-20 of the last 20 winners ran at least a Cl3 LTO
-20 of the last 20 winners last run came over at least 2m

etc

using this you can build a profile of what winners look like in each race and find horses that closest match those. from this analysis I have picked out the following for Tuesday:

Supreme novices

Envoi Allen hits 20/20 on the points system I use so that would be my tip to win, closest to him is Chantry House with 18/20. I am also going to have an ew on Edwardstone who scored 15/20 and is at 20/1, I score 5 points for a Cheltenham win or 2 points for a place so Edwardstone actually fits the profile of a winner, there is just a doubt because he has never run at Cheltenham and is an unknown.

Arkle

Fakir D'oudaries scores a perfect 15/15 here and is well ahead of anything else. Put the Kettle on at 18/1 would be the ew pick with 10/15

Ultima

The only perfect 17/17 on this one is at 28/1 mulcahys hill, I will be on that and The conditional 8/1 who got 16/17 but it's only minus was it has had 15 starts over fences whereas 18 of the last 20 winners have had under 15 starts.

Champion hurdle

Is the weakest I've ever seen it, the 2 top scores are ew punts Supasundae scores 18/20 at 11/1 and Ballyandy 17/20 at 20/1

Mares hurdle

Nailed on as Benie Des Deiux but there is no value there and it is quite a weak race. With this in mind I have a good ew that scores 12/16 Cap Soleil which is 125/1. this is a small field (10) and with bet365 you can get ew extra 4 places on Cap Soleil at 60/1. There are quite a few in this race that have fallen previously including the red hot favourite who has won every other race so I'm gonna put a quid on the win as well.

 

[Blueronron]

Over the years I have worked a system that has been fruitful 4 of the last 5 years. OLBG give you trend analysis stats and I tweak it slightly with Cheltenham form included as I much prefer horses that have Cheltenham pedigree. It is such a stamina zapping track with the hill at the end of the race that previous track form is important IMO. Anyway OLBG give you stats like:

-20 of the last 20 winners ran at least a Cl3 LTO
-20 of the last 20 winners last run came over at least 2m

etc

using this you can build a profile of what winners look like in each race and find horses that closest match those. from this analysis I have picked out the following for Tuesday:

Supreme novices

Envoi Allen hits 20/20 on the points system I use so that would be my tip to win, closest to him is Chantry House with 18/20. I am also going to have an ew on Edwardstone who scored 15/20 and is at 20/1, I score 5 points for a Cheltenham win or 2 points for a place so Edwardstone actually fits the profile of a winner, there is just a doubt because he has never run at Cheltenham and is an unknown.

Arkle

Fakir D'oudaries scores a perfect 15/15 here and is well ahead of anything else. Put the Kettle on at 18/1 would be the ew pick with 10/15

Ultima

The only perfect 17/17 on this one is at 28/1 mulcahys hill, I will be on that and The conditional 8/1 who got 16/17 but it's only minus was it has had 15 starts over fences whereas 18 of the last 20 winners have had under 15 starts.

Champion hurdle

Is the weakest I've ever seen it, the 2 top scores are ew punts Supasundae scores 18/20 at 11/1 and Ballyandy 17/20 at 20/1

Mares hurdle

Nailed on as Benie Des Deiux but there is no value there and it is quite a weak race. With this in mind I have a good ew that scores 12/16 Cap Soleil which is 125/1. this is a small field (10) and with bet365 you can get ew extra 4 places on Cap Soleil at 60/1. There are quite a few in this race that have fallen previously including the red hot favourite who has won every other race so I'm gonna put a quid on the win as well.

Opened up an account with one bookie just for this race and got 40/1 maximum £ 10 stake, famous last words but looks like easy money and worse I will lose is a tenner

 

[Ricky Otto]

Roll on tomorrow and a feast of racing,got my ticket for Weds

Please no trolls about how bad this is for horses,if you want to moan start your own thread, come on whats the fancies over next few days

Day one Race one"Fiddlerontheroof" to start me off

Scored 14/20 on my analysis. Never run at Cheltenham so unknown on the track and 20 of 20 previous winners ran over 2 miles in their race before Cheltenham and Fiddlerontheroof didn't. Aside from that 1 negative and 1 unknown it fits the profile though

 

[Ricky Otto]

Opened up an account with one bookie just for this race and got 40/1 maximum £ 10 stake, famous last words but looks like easy money and worse I will lose is a tenner

Who was that with mate? I've moved house so might be able to set up new accounts this year. I'm guessing they pay the winnings in free bets? still £400 of free bets for the rest of the festival is not to be sniffed at

 

[Blueronron]

Who was that with mate? I've moved house so might be able to set up new accounts this year. I'm guessing they pay the winnings in free bets? still £400 of free bets for the rest of the festival is not to be sniffed at

Betway

Yes free bets or if you want 500 toilet rolls,which ever is the best value

 

[Ricky Otto]

Betway

Yes free bets or if you want 500 toilet rolls,which ever is the best value

Done it but small print is that only £1 of your bet will be paid at 40/1 so £40 not £400

 

[GBJ]

Another year has passed and still I know very little about horseys, but I do know a thing or two about giving money (generously) to betting companies.

That’s why I’ve used my SkyBet £10-no-lose-bet, on Shishkin in the opener, with Asterion Forlonge as a side bet.

Finished up last year with a small profit, so hoping to go one better this year & win enough to retire. Fingers crossed.

 

[Blueronron]

Done it but small print is that only £1 of your bet will be paid at 40/1 so £40 not £400

Bollox didn’t realise that, still be happy 40 pounds in free bets

 

[Blueronron]

Just anyone backing first race William Hill paying out to 7th place in first race

Shops as well as online,increases your return chances and thats what its all about

Also the Scum paper has free one pound free bet in Ladbrokes if anyone wants a freebie

 

[C C Csiders]

Nothing of note for me apart from Paint The Dreamin the 4.50 today and Fraser Island same time tomorrow. Both e/w shop around and 5 places could be available.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Just anyone backing first race William Hill paying out to 7th place in first race

Shops as well as online,increases your return chances and thats what its all about

Also the Scum paper has free one pound free bet in Ladbrokes if anyone wants a freebie

Yep I did my Edwardstone ew bet with Hills and my Chantry House to win with Skybet to get the money back if your horse loses offer.

Also paddy power are doing money back as free bet if your horse finishes top 4 in all todays races.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Good luck everyone. I've booked half days this week so I'm off down the pub now!

 

[Blueronron]

Be watching on laptop, lucky me I'm in a corner of the office,just need to put blind down, so no reflection on the window

Yep lets hope we all a winner or four

Notebook my biggest bet at 7/2 so fingers crossed in race two

Fiddlerontheroof "ew" to get me started at 7/1 best odds guaranteed

 

[Rob Noxious]

I'm hoping that Paisley Park will do it again - due to his owner who I entreated to a few commentaries of our games at Roots Hall in the 80s and early 90s.

 

[Blueronron]

Scored 14/20 on my analysis. Never run at Cheltenham so unknown on the track and 20 of 20 previous winners ran over 2 miles in their race before Cheltenham and Fiddlerontheroof didn't. Aside from that 1 negative and 1 unknown it fits the profile though

Spot on beaten before the turn Ricky, great race to watch though

 

[Blueronron]

Another year has passed and still I know very little about horseys, but I do know a thing or two about giving money (generously) to betting companies.

That’s why I’ve used my SkyBet £10-no-lose-bet, on Shishkin in the opener, with Asterion Forlonge as a side bet.

Finished up last year with a small profit, so hoping to go one better this year & win enough to retire. Fingers crossed.

Nice one GBJ

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Over the years I have worked a system that has been fruitful 4 of the last 5 years. OLBG give you trend analysis stats and I tweak it slightly with Cheltenham form included as I much prefer horses that have Cheltenham pedigree. It is such a stamina zapping track with the hill at the end of the race that previous track form is important IMO. Anyway OLBG give you stats like:

-20 of the last 20 winners ran at least a Cl3 LTO
-20 of the last 20 winners last run came over at least 2m

etc

using this you can build a profile of what winners look like in each race and find horses that closest match those. from this analysis I have picked out the following for Tuesday:

Supreme novices

Envoi Allen hits 20/20 on the points system I use so that would be my tip to win, closest to him is Chantry House with 18/20. I am also going to have an ew on Edwardstone who scored 15/20 and is at 20/1, I score 5 points for a Cheltenham win or 2 points for a place so Edwardstone actually fits the profile of a winner, there is just a doubt because he has never run at Cheltenham and is an unknown.

Arkle

Fakir D'oudaries scores a perfect 15/15 here and is well ahead of anything else. Put the Kettle on at 18/1 would be the ew pick with 10/15

Ultima

The only perfect 17/17 on this one is at 28/1 mulcahys hill, I will be on that and The conditional 8/1 who got 16/17 but it's only minus was it has had 15 starts over fences whereas 18 of the last 20 winners have had under 15 starts.

Champion hurdle

Is the weakest I've ever seen it, the 2 top scores are ew punts Supasundae scores 18/20 at 11/1 and Ballyandy 17/20 at 20/1

Mares hurdle

Nailed on as Benie Des Deiux but there is no value there and it is quite a weak race. With this in mind I have a good ew that scores 12/16 Cap Soleil which is 125/1. this is a small field (10) and with bet365 you can get ew extra 4 places on Cap Soleil at 60/1. There are quite a few in this race that have fallen previously including the red hot favourite who has won every other race so I'm gonna put a quid on the win as well.

Good stuff so far RO, what's tomorrows tips....

 

[Blueronron]

Hope you backed your convictions RO
Nice returns mate
Me zilch