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Smiffy

¡Viva la Aussielución! 🇦🇺 🦘 ⭐️
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Oct 27, 2003
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SS2 Born & Bred 🦐
Ok, so a little bit early to be discussing. But I just wanted to see what is historically needed points wise, to get out of this horrible league.

Since we were last in League 2:

The minimum required for 7th spot has been 66 points.

The maximum required for 7th spot has been 78 points.

The average required for 7th spot is 72 points.

The minimum required for 3rd spot has been 78 points.

The maximum required for 3rd spot has been 88 points.

The average required for 3rd spot is 82 points.

On season form we are on target for 67 points.

On current form we are on target for 76 points.

So, say the Play-Off target is 72 points. This means we need to pick up 25 points from the last 14 games. At an average of 1.79 PPG. Our current PPG is 2.12, well on track. So 7 or 8 wins and a couple of draws should do it...

The Automatic 3rd spot target is 82 points. This means we need to pick up 35 points from the last 14 games. At an average of 2.50 PPG. Meaning we would probably need a good 10 wins and a few draws between now and May. Unlikely. That would be one hell of a run if we managed it. But, I have a feeling that the 3rd spot required points total will be lower than the average this season. I think 78 points will be enough to sneak in the back door....hmmmm...

We have 6 home games remaining. One against a team above us (Gills)

We have 8 away games remaining. Two against teams above us (Vale) & (Wycombe)

So with 14 games to go, only 3 of those bring a match up against teams above us. The likes of Bury, Chesterfield, Wycombe & Port Vale, have a good 2 or 3 more games than us, against top half teams still to play. Infact, only Gills have faced more top half sides than us so far.

So having read your way through that, how do you feel about our chances this season?
 
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I think we have a pretty decent chance, just due to the fact that teams are inconsistent and we've hit some form.

If we were to get promotion, how would Sturrock's achievement stack up against anything Tilly achieved? Personally I think it'd have to be held up there with our automatic promotion into the CCC.
 
I feel our players are just too tired to make the automatic spot. Asking a bit too much. Shame we couldn't get in a couple of players to freshen it up. Play-off's we're more than capable of doing though!

Up the Blues :D
 
I don't think points needed for 3rd will be as high as in previous seasons due to teams in the top 7 being quite irratic all season (bar a couple). Think playoffs will be achieved though and a finishing points total of 74.
 
I hate fun spoiling saddo negative posts but have decided just this once to have a go myself. As it stands im quietly confident we wont get relegated however if ron doesnt pay the bills and we get a 10 point deduction for going into administration I reckon we could still need 3 or 4 more wins to be certain.

For what its worth I dont see that happening and a play off position could well be on the cards, injuries and tiredness aside.
 
My own feeling is we will make the play offs, but we'll still be in L2 next season. I can't see us going up this year, as much as it pains me to say it.

I would love to be wrong however.
 
The encouraging thing from looking at the stats on F365 is that we're on course for a Play-Off spot on our overall season form, rather than just on our current form. I didn't see a team on Saturday who looked ready to storm through the remaining 14 games and take an automatic spot. We look tired and we're lacking in depth to be able to rotate much. But even factoring in a few defeats along the way we're in with a good shout of taking 7th. 70pts will do it this year, maybe even a couple less.
 
this season I think we have nothing to lose. I always said this season was about surviving. hopefully finiancially we're in a better state but I think its safe to say we've survived going into non-league this season. Now we have a real chance to get in the play-offs. Bring it on!!!
 
I think an automatic spot is too much to ask for now, given that this fixture congestion runs into March and the side looked very leggy at the weekend. Although we could welcome Bilel back in April, an injury to either Corr, Hall or Barker would probably cost us considerably. Coughlan's performing admirably at the moment, but you'd have to doubt how long he can maintain this form on 35-year old legs and it certainly sounds as if Phillips could break down at any moment.

Given the state we were in in July, a play-off finish would be a fantastic result and would be a huge testament to the job Sturrock has pulled off here. If we can keep hold of Mohsni (or make enough from his sale to adequately replace him), Corr and Hall, whilst maintaining the core elements of the squad and supplementing some squad players, then we have what it takes for an automatic/title charge next season.
 
i think it will be tight to get in the play offs...injuries will play a very big part...if we are injury free and get Moshi back early April then there is a chance
 
If only we could buy/loan a pacy goalscorer to replace the undroppable Blair, and a good Right winger, I think we would have a great chance of going up.
 
Think playoffs are the realistic option, dont see us doing enough to make the top 3, too many chances to drop points. We may only play one team above us at home until then but Northampton showed we can still slip up. By not playing other teams above us we cant close the gap ourselves either.

Anywhere in the top 7 would be a very good achievement this season, however if we dont go up will still be disappointing not to get out of this league.
 
By not playing other teams above us we cant close the gap ourselves either.

Which is the point I was going to make. I'd be more comfortable if a few more of our remaining fixtures gave us the chance to take points off of the teams we are looking to catch. Gillingham is a must-win, I think.
 
I feel our players are just too tired to make the automatic spot. Asking a bit too much. Shame we couldn't get in a couple of players to freshen it up. Play-off's we're more than capable of doing though!

Up the Blues :D

Tiredness is a worry, but I think we need to remember that it won't just be us who will be tired. The weather meant that everyone in the division is playing catch-up and having played our games in hand, we don't have a particularly more onerous run-in than our rivals. Moreoever, you feel less tired when you are winning. The teams above us wobbling will be feeling even more tired than we are.


If only we could buy/loan a pacy goalscorer to replace the undroppable Blair, and a good Right winger, I think we would have a great chance of going up.

Glad you realise that Blair is undroppable. Saturday again demonstrated what he offers to the team as we looked more threatening with a half fit Blair first half than we did with a fresh and lively Harry Crawford. For all that running we lacked the guile that Blair has provided most of this season.
 
Gillingham next week is a must-win game, fail to win that and we'll probably miss out. I reckon we'll get the last play-off spot and to get to Old Trafford would be amazing.
 
To get in the playoffs is very possible, but to get in the automatics would require a feat of jedi-like proportions...
 
Glad you realise that Blair is undroppable. Saturday again demonstrated what he offers to the team as we looked more threatening with a half fit Blair first half than we did with a fresh and lively Harry Crawford. For all that running we lacked the guile that Blair has provided most of this season.

:omg:..You seriously need to seek medical advice for your over active imagination and failing eyesight.

:winking:
 
To get in the playoffs is very possible, but to get in the automatics would require a feat of jedi-like proportions...

We're 6 points back with 14 games remaining.

Tomorrow night sees Chesterfield v Wycombe, Shrewbury v Bury and Torquay v Rotherham meaning at least 3 of those teams will be dropping points.

If we win our next game it's then going to be something like 4 points back with 13 games remaining.
 
i think it will be tight to get in the play offs...injuries will play a very big part...if we are injury free and get Moshi back early April then there is a chance

But we're managing this with injuries. We have Mohsni, Ferdinand, Phillips and Grant out.

Glad you realise that Blair is undroppable. Saturday again demonstrated what he offers to the team as we looked more threatening with a half fit Blair first half than we did with a fresh and lively Harry Crawford. For all that running we lacked the guile that Blair has provided most of this season.

Well said. Sturrock isn't ever going to score goals, but his overall play is worthy of more credit than it gets. I wonder how many of the assists Hall has racked up this season is because Sturrock has held the ball up and played it out to him?
 
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