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The run-in

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Shrimpergonzo

Shrimpergonzo

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver⭐
Staff member
Joined
Oct 24, 2003
Messages
6,230
Location
Chelmsford
I was struck by a Staffordshire news report that said Port Vale still had to play Cheltenham, Burton and Northampton in their last 9 games and I thought it might be worth checking out the respective run-ins of the promotion/play-off rivals who are currently above us.

I don't think we'll catch the Gills as they're 15 points clear of us now, so I'll leave them out. But of the others:

Southend: WIMBLEDON, TORQUAY, PLYMOUTH, Rochdale, Bradford, FLEETWOOD, BRISTOL ROVERS, Aldershot, York, MORECAMBE:

Exeter: GILLINGHAM, BRADFORD, Rotherham, Plymouth, ROCHDALE, DAGENHAM, Wimbledon, CHELTENHAM, Chesterfield

Cheltenham: ROTHERHAM, Barnet, Port Vale, NORTHAMPTON, Plymouth, GILLINGHAM, Exeter, BRADFORD

Northampton: Morecambe, Wycombe, OXFORD, TORQUAY, Cheltenham, Bradford, YORK, Port Vale, BARNET

Rotherham: Wycombe, Cheltenham, EXETER, WIMBLEDON, Gillingham, Morecambe, FLEETWOOD, Bradford, Plymouth, ALDERSHOT

Burton: Aldershot, Dagenham, WYCOMBE, CHESTERFIELD, Accrington, Port Vale, PLYMOUTH, Bradford, GILLINGHAM

Port Vale: Bristol Rovers, York, ALDERSHOT, CHELTENHAM, Chesterfield, BURTON, Rochdale, NORTHAMPTON, Wycombe


I think looking at that, we have one of the (on paper!) easier run-ins - Cheltenham's in particular looks a nasty fixture list, playing all teams who have got something to play for.

Also, I've got a bit of a soft spot for Plymouth and they seem to have some mighty tricky games coming up - really hope they survive (at the expense of Aldershot and Accrington!)
 
I think Cheltenham look to have a difficult run in too. Onpaper ours looks the easiest run in of the lot, but that's on paper......
 
Pak Power said:
I think Cheltenham look to have a difficult run in too. Onpaper ours looks the easiest run in of the lot, but that's on paper......
Click to expand...

Indeed - and having followed Southend for over 30 years now I know we have the capacity to mess this up or do things the hard way!

However I'd rather have our run in with 10 games left than Cheltenham's remaining 8!
 
jtsouthend said:
At least someone at football webs thinks we might do alright

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/leaguetwo/league?sort=predicted

Got to stop worrying about the teams around us and go on a little run ourselves and see where we end up.

Let's hope we can continue to gather momentum with another win tomorrow night.
Click to expand...

I'd be amazed if that happened! It predicts our next results will be:

Wimbledon W
Torquay D
Plymouth W
Rochdale D
Bradford D
Fleetwood D
Bristol W
Aldershot W
York D
Morecambe W

20 points out of a possible 30 for us and relies on the teams above us getting only 12 out of 27/30 from them still seems optimistic to me.
 
I predict that we will play 10 more league games and a Wembley JPT Final...and that is the only certain prediction you can rely upon! :winking:
 
I don't think you can exclude Bradford ( and possibly Fleetwood ) from this little 'Promotion Party' either !
 
jtsouthend said:
At least someone at football webs thinks we might do alright

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/leaguetwo/league?sort=predicted

Got to stop worrying about the teams around us and go on a little run ourselves and see where we end up.

Let's hope we can continue to gather momentum with another win tomorrow night.
Click to expand...


This - well pretty much - I'll be disappointed if we don't overtake Port Vale.

Also think Oxford may do better than predicted here - would suggest they still get included in the PO candidates.
 
Shrimpergarry said:
I was struck by a Staffordshire news report that said Port Vale still had to play Cheltenham, Burton and Northampton in their last 9 games and I thought it might be worth checking out the respective run-ins of the promotion/play-off rivals who are currently above us.

I don't think we'll catch the Gills as they're 15 points clear of us now, so I'll leave them out. But of the others:

Southend: WIMBLEDON, TORQUAY, PLYMOUTH, Rochdale, Bradford, FLEETWOOD, BRISTOL ROVERS, Aldershot, York, MORECAMBE:

Exeter: GILLINGHAM, BRADFORD, Rotherham, Plymouth, ROCHDALE, DAGENHAM, Wimbledon, CHELTENHAM, Chesterfield

Cheltenham: ROTHERHAM, Barnet, Port Vale, NORTHAMPTON, Plymouth, GILLINGHAM, Exeter, BRADFORD

Northampton: Morecambe, Wycombe, OXFORD, TORQUAY, Cheltenham, Bradford, YORK, Port Vale, BARNET

Rotherham: Wycombe, Cheltenham, EXETER, WIMBLEDON, Gillingham, Morecambe, FLEETWOOD, Bradford, Plymouth, ALDERSHOT

Burton: Aldershot, Dagenham, WYCOMBE, CHESTERFIELD, Accrington, Port Vale, PLYMOUTH, Bradford, GILLINGHAM

Port Vale: Bristol Rovers, York, ALDERSHOT, CHELTENHAM, Chesterfield, BURTON, Rochdale, NORTHAMPTON, Wycombe


I think looking at that, we have one of the (on paper!) easier run-ins - Cheltenham's in particular looks a nasty fixture list, playing all teams who have got something to play for.

Also, I've got a bit of a soft spot for Plymouth and they seem to have some mighty tricky games coming up - really hope they survive (at the expense of Aldershot and Accrington!)
Click to expand...
Did it hurt ? Spose not. Probably only paper.
 
If you're thinking we have an easy run-in on paper, you're right. In fact we're top of the league. By a country mile. The table gives in the final column the average position of opponents in games yet to be played. In a totally even set up your score would be 12.5. Given that all opponents are in different positions in the table Blues' score of 17.2 really is quite an achievement: with 10 games to play the highest possible score (ie, playing only the bottom 10) would be 19.5. If you were only playing top teams the minimum score would be 5.0... so yes, at 9.1 Cheltenham also have reason for statistical celebrations. Acknowledgements: statto.com, Excel, a gammy ankle (itself courtesy of a pothole in SUFC car park!), and a snowy afternoon.

Current
Opponents
8
Southend17.2
17
Bristol Rovers15.2
10
Oxford Utd15.0
19
York14.6
9Fleetwood14.4
15Dag & Red13.9
3Burton Albion13.6
18Barnet13.5
4Northampton12.7
1Gillingham12.5
6Rotherham12.5
23Accrington12.5
7Exeter12.3
2Port Vale12.2
21Wimbledon12.2
13Morecambe12.1
22Torquay11.8
12Chesterfield11.8
16Rochdale11.7
11Bradford11.1
14Wycombe11.0
20Aldershot10.6
24Plymouth9.6
5Cheltenham9.1
 
Blimey leroyjean - I have no idea what all this means, but I'll take your word for it that it's good news for us!

:Worthy:All hail the new Statto!
 
buffalowolf said:
All so interesting is the fact that they say Southend will not score more than one goal in any of the matches, mmmmmmm i think they just maybe wrong on that account too.
Click to expand...

Lets hope so, although Saturday was one of the rare times we actually have scored more than 1 in the league recently.
 
In all of the calculations one must surely take into account that some of our opponents are fighting for their League status, eg Dons, Plymouth and Torquay. As Jimmy Greaves once famously said, "Football is a funny old game". So let's take it one game at a time and the future will take care of itself.
 
The future took care of itself tonight, next season an almost completely new team, a new manager and yes dare i say it League 2 again.Only way that will change is if Southend go into receivership and are demoted by the leaugue powers that be.
 
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