Tips for Sp to in-play running prices.

[dloman]

In response to another poster I will post some racing tips for in-play betting. These are likely to drop from their SP whilst the race is being run. I use betfair, though with other trading software as it make it easier to "green up" across the whole field.

So here are a few for today.

13:50 Tramore - Killahara castle. Currently around 40-1 though you may get it up to 70-1. Risky because it has had only 6 races but has achieved 50% of sp over 80% of the time at this distance and with shorter odds.


14:55 Tramore - De Benno. Odds likely to be between 4 and 5 to 1. Very good record of achieving heavy price movement at level and distance.


16:30 Market Rasen - Alberta. SP around 4.5, likely to move in during race, good chance it will win.


I do have picks for most races and tend to hit around 90% of the time but be aware on short distance races a poor start could see the price go up instead of down.

 

[dloman]

Results were as follows:

Tramore meeting was abandoned.

16:30 Market Rasen - Alberta SP was 4.16 In-Play lowest price was 2.88

 

[dloman]

Ok just the three today as I seem to have left it a bit late!

16:10 Kelso - Welcome Ben. Odds around 32-1 Likely to drop in-play.

16:40 Kelso - Stitched in time. Long odds on this around 90-1, should be good as long as he doesn't pull up early.

17:20 Windsor - Russian Remarque. Currently trading around 18's will hopefully drop heavily in race.

 

[dloman]

Today the results were:

16:10 Kelso - Welcome Ben. Betfair SP 34.35 In-play low of 20 before pulling up. Nice profit made there.

16:40 Kelso - Stitched in time. Betfair SP 85 In-play low of 60 pulled up as I thought he might,but still a good profit.

17:20 Windsor - Russian Remarque. SP of 17.5 In-play low of 10. Good profit although he finished badly it is ok as he started well, which is what sees the in-play price drop.

All in all a pretty good day with others I also picked out.

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Today the results were:

16:10 Kelso - Welcome Ben. Betfair SP 34.35 In-play low of 20 before pulling up. Nice profit made there.

16:40 Kelso - Stitched in time. Betfair SP 85 In-play low of 60 pulled up as I thought he might,but still a good profit.

17:20 Windsor - Russian Remarque. SP of 17.5 In-play low of 10. Good profit although he finished badly it is ok as he started well, which is what sees the in-play price drop.

All in all a pretty good day with others I also picked out.

Thanks for the info but can you explain how this works? Only ever bet on win or E/W so not really sure what the above means? Sorry for my ignorance

 

[dloman]

The idea is to back at the higher price then lay-off at the lower resulting in a profit that can either be "greened-up" across the field (I will explain don't worry) or leave the profit from your original stake to run on in the hope the price drops further or the horse wins, which would increase the profit.

Greening up in basic terms means that you will win whichever horse comes out on top as long you have backed higher than you layed off. This is pretty much impossible to do on the betfair site so it is best to use trading software that links up with betfair. There are many about and pretty much all offer free trials and practice modes.

The dangers are when a horse drifts out in-play, though you can always cash out for a smaller loss than your stake. It can be a risk as a slow starting horse's price may well go out before it rapidly comes in as the race comes to a climax.

On picking horses, well I am not going to give you all the information but I use everything available (which is a lot!)


Hope this explains, any more questions I am happy to help. I tend to have around the 90-95% success rate.

 

[dloman]

Today the tips are as follows:


14:25 Exeter - Wild west wind. Currently trading around the 6's. Not many races for this horse but has a 100% record of hitting 75% of SP and tends to finish in the top three. Very good chance here.


15:20 Newmarket - Amazour. Always a risk with 6f race as a poor start can hit the in-play price heavily but around 12-1 this one should be ok.


15:35 Exeter - Rustamabad. Trading around 7.5 though a chance of getting it around the 10's I feel. Has hit 50% of SP over half the time and today should be no different.


16:10 Exeter - Revaader. Trading around 24.1 which seems very high, I would expect the SP to be lower and for him to at least hit 10's in-play though hasn't run for a while, but does have good history at course and distance.

I have picked out many more for today including three in one race. Touch wood they all do very well.

 

[dloman]

Today's results are as follows:

14:25 Exeter - Wild West Wind. SP of 6.12 In-Play price of 2.52. Very good profit there.

15:20 Newmarket - Amazour. SP of 9.28 In-Play price of 2.6. Excellent profit made on that one.

15:35 Exeter - Rustamabad. SP of 6.14 In-Play price of 4.5. Profit made would have been better if he hadn't pulled up.

16:10 Exeter - Revaader. SP of 65 In-Play price of 28. Nice money made there.

All in all a pretty good day with 3 out the 4 achieving lower than 50% of their SP.

All tips that I have posted so far have shown good profits after backing at SP then laying off In-Play.

 

[dloman]

I am going to put some more up now. Not sure if anybody is using but it is quite interesting to post them and keep a record of how they do (other than purely financial).


13:50 Cheltenham - Never equalled. Trading around the 50 mark. This horse has a good record of movement and hopefully will drop as the race progresses.

13:50 Cheltenham - Holly Bush Henry. You may have noticed this is in the same race as above. Well I am going to do both and in all honesty could have picked four from this one and maybe still will. In a race you will find around 60-70% of the horses see some movement down from their SP, the knack being to choose the right ones!

14:25 Cheltenham - Conas Taoi. Currently trading around 8. This should go close which will see the price drop low in-play.


15:00 Cheltenham - Kayf Blanco. Another race where more than one could be chosen. This horse has a 83% record of hitting 50% of SP and is very good odds at around 18. Ignore last race result as was a shorter distance and a much higher quality field.


16:30 Newmarket - Mahsoob. Shouldn't look past Air Pilot but I am going to as this is better odds. Even when coming fifth recently his in-play odds dropped from a similar price to less than half of SP, and that is exactly what I am looking for.


I have many more tips for today and this evening if anybody is interested.

 

[dloman]

Ok the results for today are:

13:50 Cheltenham - Never Equalled. SP of 32 and in-play price of 6.8. Really nice profit there.

13:50 Cheltenham - Holly Bush Henry. SP 20.79 and in-play of 5. Most excellent on both these in the same race.

14:25 Cheltenham - Conas Taoi. SP 7.8 and in-play 2.52. Thought he was going to win at one stage but great profit anyway.

15:00 Cheltenham - Kayf Blanco. SP 23.16 and in-play of 4.1. Once again heavy profit.


16:30 Newmarket - Mahsoob and Air Pilot. Decided to do both as previously stated. SP for Mahsoob 4.63 in-play 1.01 (won) and Air Pilot SP 3.1 in-play 1.37. Glad I did both as they finished first and second.


A very good day. I am going to post the last three days possible winnings based £100 stake later, so keep watching.

 

[dloman]

Ok I said I would give you the profits based on £100 stakes on the 14 tips so far.

Based on getting the prices at Betfair SP and cashing out at the lowest in-play price you would be approximately £2400 in profit over just 3 days. If you managed to get the price higher than SP (which is easily done) then your profit would be even higher, though on the flip side if you cashed out early your profit would be lower.


I can break these down over each race if anyone wants it.


Oh and one more thing (sounded a bit like Columbo!) these are before Betfair commission which around 5% .

 

[Blueronron]

Ok the results for today are:

13:50 Cheltenham - Never Equalled. SP of 32 and in-play price of 6.8. Really nice profit there.

13:50 Cheltenham - Holly Bush Henry. SP 20.79 and in-play of 5. Most excellent on both these in the same race.

14:25 Cheltenham - Conas Taoi. SP 7.8 and in-play 2.52. Thought he was going to win at one stage but great profit anyway.

15:00 Cheltenham - Kayf Blanco. SP 23.16 and in-play of 4.1. Once again heavy profit.


16:30 Newmarket - Mahsoob and Air Pilot. Decided to do both as previously stated. SP for Mahsoob 4.63 in-play 1.01 (won) and Air Pilot SP 3.1 in-play 1.37. Glad I did both as they finished first and second.


A very good day. I am going to post the last three days possible winnings based £100 stake later, so keep watching.

Not saying your wrong mate, but I backed Any Currency in which you said you made a tidy profit on 14.25 Cheltenham, and how you said you thought it may win is a shock, Any Currency lead from all most the start and the selection never got within 8 lengths, but I suppose that is how the in play markets work, you against the others

Good luck to you, be interested on how you fare over the year on all selections, if you can beat the system then good on you, and even better if others follow your tips:happy:

UtS

 

[dloman]

Not saying your wrong mate, but I backed Any Currency in which you said you made a tidy profit on 14.25 Cheltenham, and how you said you thought it may win is a shock, Any Currency lead from all most the start and the selection never got within 8 lengths, but I suppose that is how the in play markets work, you against the others

Good luck to you, be interested on how you fare over the year on all selections, if you can beat the system then good on you, and even better if others follow your tips:happy:

UtS

Agreed, Any currency ran a good race though results show Conas Taoi got within 2 3/4 lengths at the finish. But it's irrelevant due to the markets belief either the leader would tire or Conas would catch him, hence the heavy price drop and it is the market that forces the price down. Though this was a very long race so anything could have happened in-play.

Sometimes a horse can finish last and still a good in-play profit can be found due to a fast starting horse or just belief in the markets that it will come on fast towards the end. That is why a fair bit of research has to go into it and why I never do races where the horses have little or no history, don't really like claiming or selling races either.

Anyway I will keep it going with my top tips for the day and see where it takes us.

 

[dloman]

Doing these quick today:

13:50 Sainte Ladylime. Current price 10

14:25 Indian Stream. Currently 11

15:00 Unbuckled . Currently 10.5

15:45 Kings Pavillion. Currently 6

15:55 Mobsta and Mattmu. 8.8 and 7.6 at the mo.

16:10 finger on the switch and delagany demon. 14 and 32

17:05 Three Gracez . 65's at this time

 

[dloman]

Results for today:

13:50 Sainte Ladylime - SP 9.76 in-play 4. profit at lowest cash out based on stake £100 = £144

14:25 Indian Stream - SP 11 in-play 1.01 profit £989

15:00 Unbuckled SP 9.71 in-play 7. profit £38

15:45 Kings Pavillion SP 5.73 in-play 4.6. Profit £24

15:55 Mobsta and Mattmu. SP's 9 and 9.05 in-plays 6.8 and 3.45. Profit £32 and £162.

16:10 Finger on the switch and delagany demon. SP's 12.5 and 40.36 in-plays of 7 and 19.5. Profit £78 and £106

17.05 Three Gracez. SP 48 in-play 65. Loss £100


Ok we had our first loss today so I included at a total loss of stake and no cashing out. That's 1 loss out of 23 and I'm pretty happy with that! The total profit for the day based on £100 stakes and greening up at lowest in-play price is £1673 added to the running total since Sunday would be £4073 minus Betfair commission.

Now obviously if you cashed out at just 50% of lowest prices, well you can work it out. I will put together some figure for the maths bods out there based on average percentage of SP achieved as I think this could be the interesting part going forwards.

 

[dloman]

Ok here are lots for today, only up to 5 o'clock as yet as I haven't looked beyond that at the moment. Remember these are not necessarily tips to win, though some may well do, these are horses that I believe will drop from their Betfair SP and run lower in-play. So you back them around the SP or higher if you can! Then lay them off at the lower in-play price.


13:45 Mr Cool Cash Results SP 15 in-play 10
13:50 Subtle Grey Non-Runner
14:20 Fantasy Justifer SP 17.93 in-play 9
14:25 Henryville and Killala Quay. Two in this race for me. Henryville Non-Runner SP 26.99 in-play 19
14:40 Morrenko SP 3.6 in-play 1.01 winner
15:00 Same Plan & Cloudy Dream SP's 18.53 and 9.4 In-plays 4.1 and 5.8
15:15 Tasleet SP 1.64 in-play 1.01 winner
15:20 Detour Ahead SP 28 in-play 7.2
15:35 Ubultiquet SP 24.58 in-play 20
15:50 Earth Drummer SP 7.12 in-play 3.1
16:05 Excessible SP 6.94 in-play 5
16:10 See you at midnight, Measure of my dreams and Top wood SP's 19.08 12.5 and 190.43 in-plays
1.27 12.5 and 15
16:30 Lower hope dandy SP 9.8 in-play 1.87
16:40 Swaheen SP 12.36 in-play 12.5
16:45 Baby Bach and Warriors Tale SP's 25.46 and 12.5 in-play 24 and 4
17:00 Illusive Non Runner


These all meet my criteria of previous finishing place, historic in-play price movement and previous percentages of price drop. Also you have look deeper into previous finishes maybe it pulled up in the last race but still had a large drop in-play of price. It also is worth looking into whether it is a fast finisher or quick starter.


The results are up for the day all winners bar one and one that evened out, though the other two picks from that race were huge price drops so the profit was very large despite this.