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US Election 2012: Why is Obama favourite on UK betting sites?

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Rusty Shackleford

Rusty Shackleford

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All of the polls in the US have Romney ahead with his lead growing, and with Obama burdened by the mounting questions about the handling of the Libyan Embassy attack, that's unlikely to change in the next week. Unless a Saville-esque revelation about Romney is revealed this weekend, Obama looks a dead duck. So why do all the UK betting sites have him as the favourite (odds on in all cases that I've seen)?

Uncle Leo - any insider info that we don't know? If not, I would lump on Romney.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
All of the polls in the US have Romney ahead with his lead growing, and with Obama burdened by the mounting questions about the handling of the Libyan Embassy attack, that's unlikely to change in the next week. Unless a Saville-esque revelation about Romney is revealed this weekend, Obama looks a dead duck. So why do all the UK betting sites have him as the favourite (odds on in all cases that I've seen)?

Uncle Leo - any insider info that we don't know? If not, I would lump on Romney.
Click to expand...

Coincidentally, I was talking to our politics odds compiler only last week. He's priced up each state and if the favourite wins each one, then Obama wins. Romney was getting well backed over the last few weeks, but the tide has turned back towards Obama since early last week.

We currently bet:

Obama 1/3
Romney 11/5

Perhaps worth noting that for us, Romney is far worse result than Obama.
 
It's the Electoral College system.

Obama might lose the popular vote, but is likely to still win the Electoral College.

I haven't followed it particularly carefully this time round and don't even have any bets on 2012 (2008 in contrast was highly lucrative), but my money would still be with Obama.
 
Yorkshire Blue said:
It's the Electoral College system.

Obama might lose the popular vote, but is likely to still win the Electoral College.

I haven't followed it particularly carefully this time round and don't even have any bets on 2012 (2008 in contrast was highly lucrative), but my money would still be with Obama.
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I don't see how he wins the Electoral College, where the swing states are pretty much tied up, the undecided voters will trend away from the Incumbent 3:1. This will give Romney Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Florida is already in the bag.
 
I have OH, PA and WI all going Obama, but can't say I have looked into it in any depth.

That leaves VA, CO and maybe NC as a fall back for Obama if he loses OH.
 
I note that now we're getting into the more thoughtful and detailed side of this discussion, someone has piped down. I'm basing my assessments on Dick Morris's thoughts, the pollster who worked for Bill Clinton. He's the guy who worked out the metric regarding undecideds and independents, who will usually vote against the incumbent. He is a died in the wool Republican, so I appreciate he's writing what his readers want to hear, but he has Romney winning by some distance.
 
Nate Silver is the pick of the pundits IMO.

I think he's a probably a Democrat but, as you'll know from his baseball work, he's first and foremost a numbers guy.

I think Morris works backwards on his predictions.
 
I was going to ask you a similar thing Rusty. On the Telegraph website, the vast majority of Americans that come on seem to think Romney has it in the bag, and that losing Ohio won't necessarily damage him. Bear in mind as well that the British media, Telegraph included, are desperate for Barry to win.

My wife has a Texan cousin who is mixed race and as hardened a Democrat as they come and even he has told me that Romney will win; and comfortably. He cites several reasons: 1) Reduced Black/Hispanic voting, the novelty of Obama having worn off. 2) Determined Christian voting against Obama. 3) Benghazi, obviously. 4) Apparently, and I wouldn't have a clue on this myself, the Electoral College points per state have been slightly altered since 2008 and seem to favour Romney. I must admit I put that last point down to his bitter Liberalism.

This is going to sound a bit dramatic, but I've had a feeling for a while now that the GOP are going to nail Barry with something big in the last couple of days; Romney has run a pretty laid back campaign IMO.

All in all, I'm hoping for a Romney/Ryan victory, because I've never forgiven Barry for throwing Churchill from the White House.
 
Dick Bate's Protege said:
I was going to ask you a similar thing Rusty. On the Telegraph website, the vast majority of Americans that come on seem to think Romney has it in the bag, and that losing Ohio won't necessarily damage him. Bear in mind as well that the British media, Telegraph included, are desperate for Barry to win.

My wife has a Texan cousin who is mixed race and as hardened a Democrat as they come and even he has told me that Romney will win; and comfortably. He cites several reasons: 1) Reduced Black/Hispanic voting, the novelty of Obama having worn off. 2) Determined Christian voting against Obama. 3) Benghazi, obviously. 4) Apparently, and I wouldn't have a clue on this myself, the Electoral College points per state have been slightly altered since 2008 and seem to favour Romney. I must admit I put that last point down to his bitter Liberalism.

This is going to sound a bit dramatic, but I've had a feeling for a while now that the GOP are going to nail Barry with something big in the last couple of days; Romney has run a pretty laid back campaign IMO.

All in all, I'm hoping for a Romney/Ryan victory, because I've never forgiven Barry for throwing Churchill from the White House.
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Your wife's cousin is reflecting a lot of what I'm hearing in my adopted home state of Oregon, which is as blue as blue can be. There is one Obama sign in our neighbourhood, and literally hundreds of Romney/Ryan signs. I do feel it will be the Dems trying to come up with a November surprise, I don't believe Romney thinks he needs one.
 
Rusty why do you think people are walking away from Obama?

Let's face it - he got dealt a pretty ****** hand when he came to office.
 
Mad Cyril said:
Rusty why do you think people are walking away from Obama?

Let's face it - he got dealt a pretty ****** hand when he came to office.
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And he's turned it into the dead man's hand. He promoted himself as fiscally responsible but he's taking the Bush deficits and doubling them. Unemployment and inflation are steadily climbing, and his signature legislation, Obamacare, is unpopular with many different segments of the population. He is also constantly blaming Bush for all his failures.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
Your wife's cousin is reflecting a lot of what I'm hearing in my adopted home state of Oregon, which is as blue as blue can be. There is one Obama sign in our neighbourhood, and literally hundreds of Romney/Ryan signs. I do feel it will be the Dems trying to come up with a November surprise, I don't believe Romney thinks he needs one.
Click to expand...

Far from picking holes in that theory but at every General Election I can remember, Southend West is awash with LibDem posters but they have never quite made it. I'm only making a observation of course. Can I ask how many are likely to be on the ballot paper and do the others make much of a difference to the overall outcome?
 
Genial Harry Grout said:
Far from picking holes in that theory but at every General Election I can remember, Southend West is awash with LibDem posters but they have never quite made it. I'm only making a observation of course. Can I ask how many are likely to be on the ballot paper and do the others make much of a difference to the overall outcome?
Click to expand...

Fair point Grouty, I just think it's interesting to see so much Republican support in a solidly Democrat state. That said, I do live in the more rural part of Oregon, and it's unlikely to be the same picture in hippy dippy Portland.

There are two other names on the ballot, one for the Libertarians and one for the Greens, neither will make any significant difference (there's no Ross Perot this time round).
 
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