US Presidential election thread

[Pubey]

OK - I think we need a thread that doesn't specifically focus on Trump, and we also need a thread with a few ground rules.

I'm not sure why but I always tend to get quite involved with the US elections (and US politics in general). This year's election is bound to be fascinating, and you can rely on the Yanks to have a system that provides plenty of twists and turns. It's showbusiness!

At this moment in time, it looks like a democratic win by default, basically because the republicans are going to end up backing Trump because the moderate republicans are killing each other, rather than picking a legit runner and backing them against Cruz/Trump. I think they're going to leave Trump too far ahead and he'll be found out against any of the leading democrats.

If you're a normal republican, you're pulling your hair/toupée out at where things are going. But that make the Iowa caucus next week even more interesting.

For the democrats, things aren't much better. The choice between Clinton and Sanders isn't great.

The ground rules:
Play the post, not the poster
No diverting the discussion
No personal bickering
The thread will always be improved by videos of Palin
If you're not interested in US politics, that's fine, just don't post here.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

I like the ground rules, but I think your analysis of the Republican field neglects the fact that 'moderate' Republicans don't win Presidential Elections (Dole, McCain, Romney). I think you're also underestimating Trump's populist message and his appeal as a political outsider. My take is that Trump wins at least 40 states against Hilary, if she even survives the primaries. It's a shame that Trump and Cruz are turning on each other now that they have left the rest of the field behind, because Teddy would have made a great VP and a great successor.

 

[Berrichonne shrimper]

Nearly every one of your ground rules you break yourself on other threads and for that reason i am out but just for videos of pal;in or porn look-a-likes i am in.
Any one for a tea party?

 

[mrsblue]

Nearly every one of your ground rules you break yourself on other threads and for that reason i am out but just for videos of pal;in or porn look-a-likes i am in.
Any one for a tea party?

2 many rules !

I swerve this one.

 

[londonblue]

It'll also be interesting to see whether or not Bloomberg runs as an independent, which he's (apparently) considering. Who would he take votes from, if anyone?

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I like the ground rules, but I think your analysis of the Republican field neglects the fact that 'moderate' Republicans don't win Presidential Elections (Dole, McCain, Romney). I think you're also underestimating Trump's populist message and his appeal as a political outsider. My take is that Trump wins at least 40 states against Hilary, if she even survives the primaries. It's a shame that Trump and Cruz are turning on each other now that they have left the rest of the field behind, because Teddy would have made a great VP and a great successor.

Can't see anyone but HC winning myself.

The idea of Trump winning "at least 40 states" against her is frankly :hilarious:

Does rather look like Trump will get the Republican nomination, in which case I think he'll do a Goldwater.

 

[Napster]

I like the look of Bernie. I couldn't imagine another one of the Bush or Clinton Houses.

 

[Pubey]

I like the look of Bernie. I couldn't imagine another one of the Bush or Clinton Houses.

I like Bernie as well but his views on gun control stick out like a sore thumb.

Also the idea of electing someone who you'd want to be president in their 80s to me seems to be pushing it. Many people of that age are highly capable, but president of the USA?

 

[Napster]

I like Bernie as well but his views on gun control stick out like a sore thumb.

Also the idea of electing someone who you'd want to be president in their 80s to me seems to be pushing it. Many people of that age are highly capable, but president of the USA?

I guess, but then he'd be backed by younger VPs and so on. I think he's wrong on gun control, but at least he's a personality, not a robotron like Hilary.

 

[Benfleet A1]

I think Clinton is a shoe in if the Republicans choose Trump.He has lost the black, asian/muslem and hispanic vote before he starts. I would prefer to see Cruz on the republican ticket but fear the worst. Trump would isolate the USA which is never a good thing. Far too gun ho for me.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

i saw in the FT recently that the further Trump gets ahead in the polls in terms of the Republican nomination the shorter the odds on Clinton winning the general.
i know politicians are, rightly and wrongly, not always held in high regard but it seems a pretty poor field on all sides to me.

Clinton seems to have the nomination sown up and she's hardly impressive but the alternative is Bernie Sanders, even for a lefty like me he's not very appealing.
If Trump and Sanders win the nominations I think a lot of people will be really turned off and I wonder if someone like a Bloomberg could win from the middle.
3rd party guys tend to do bad but i don't see anything that makes me think Trump and Sanders are doing the usual thing of tacking wide for the nomination before tacking central for the general.

therefore Clinton to win but without anyone being very enthusiastic.

 

[MK Shrimper]

I like the ground rules, but I think your analysis of the Republican field neglects the fact that 'moderate' Republicans don't win Presidential Elections (Dole, McCain, Romney). I think you're also underestimating Trump's populist message and his appeal as a political outsider. My take is that Trump wins at least 40 states against Hilary, if she even survives the primaries. It's a shame that Trump and Cruz are turning on each other now that they have left the rest of the field behind, because Teddy would have made a great VP and a great successor.

As they said on C4 last night, Trump may have the blue collar vote by spouting soundbites and making promises he can't possibly keep but the thing is voter turn out for this demographic of the US population had always been low so IF he becomes the Republican nomination, I think it'll be an easy shoe in for the Democrats whoever leads them.

 

[rigsby]

As they said on C4 last night, Trump may have the blue collar vote by spouting soundbites and making promises he can't possibly keep but the thing is voter turn out for this demographic of the US population had always been low so IF he becomes the Republican nomination, I think it'll be an easy shoe in for the Democrats whoever leads them.

Remember the 'Nasty' party, It was going to be an easy shoe in for Labour even with Ed Miliband leading them.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

Remember the 'Nasty' party, It was going to be an easy shoe in for Labour even with Ed Miliband leading them.

not if you knew where to look. The only shoe in under Miliband was a Tory win which is why the odds weren't that generous.

On the basis that American's vote similarly to Britains then it'll be leadership and the economy that decides the election. I don't see Sanders having a hope there while Trump at least has some sort of background in something economic as against the Sanders moneytree wouldn't-it-be-nice-if school of economics.
Clinton as the least worst candidate could then win the general by default

 

[Benfleet A1]

Cruz wins Iowa for the republican ticket. At stupid o'clock it's neck and neck for Clinton and Sanders.

 

[Pubey]

Clinton edges it by 0.3%.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Can someone explain what this all means for who will be in the running? Not au fait with how the US works

 

[MK Shrimper]

Can someone explain what this all means for who will be in the running? Not au fait with how the US works

As far as I understand it, it's an indicator of who will become the candidate for the respective parties and who will drop out at the first hurdle.

 

[RHB]

Can someone explain what this all means for who will be in the running? Not au fait with how the US works

According to Wiki:

The Iowa Caucus[SUP][1][/SUP] is an electoral event in which residents of the U.S. state of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,681 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions. There are 99 counties in Iowa, and thus there are 99 conventions. These county conventions then select delegates for both Iowa's Congressional District Convention and the State Convention, which eventually choose the delegates for the presidential nominating conventions. About 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen by the Iowa State Convention.The Iowa Caucus is noteworthy for the amount of media attention it receives during U.S. presidential election years. Since 1972,[SUP][2][/SUP] the Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral event of the nominating process for President of the United States. Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 43% success rate at predicting which Democratic candidate for president and a 50% success rate at predicting which Republican candidate for president will go on to win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, though they may more reliably indicate which ones are likely to drop out owing to lack of support

 

[MK Shrimper]

I think the world should have a group hug when Trump throws in the towel.