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What the new manager needs to do...

South Bank Hank

Zone Owner
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Nov 4, 2003
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#1
Okay, so the obvious target is to come in and win enough games to keep us in League One this season ("no ****, Sherlock!"), so at the moment, I'm just thinking about the points target. Normally, we'd assume 50 points: last year we finished in 19th on 50 points and survived on goal difference while the previous 2 years would have required 51 points and 50 respectively.

But this year, there are two less games and only three teams will be relegated so we're into some new territory. With six less points on offer, what do we think will be the cut-off this season? 50 from 46 games is around 1.1 points per game - the same ratio on 44 games should mean roughly 48 points all other things being equal. Add another 1 point for our already ridiculous goal difference and I think we're realistically targeting 49 points to stay up this season.

Happy if someone wants to change my mind on that so we're all on the same page.

=====================

So how difficult is it/what form do we need then to get to 49 points from our remaining 33 games. With our cracking start of four points already in the bag(!!), that leaves 45 more points from 33. That's 1.36 points per game.

Over a normal (full quota of teams) season 1.36 points per game would give us roughly 63 points.
  • In 2018/19, the team on 63 points finished in 9th place.
  • In 2017/18, the team on 63 points finished in 10th place (that was US by the way!) with 11th on the same points just with a worse goal difference.
  • In 2016/17, the team on 63 points finished in 11th place.
So, we need the new manager to come in, understand the team, find his best players, find his system, galvanise the squad, address their confidence issues, eradicate the gaps in talent and commitment, find solutions where there are none with regards to lack of players for certain positional requirements, get them playing for him and then hit a rest-of-season form commensurate with finishing just above mid-table - in order to just about stay up.

I'm as optimistic as anyone on here but with the seriously flawed playing staff at our disposal, I think that's a frickin' tough ask!
 
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