When can you judge a season?

[chapperzUK]

I was curious about how far into the season you would have to go before you would get a picture of how the season would pan out. With some panicking after 5 games and others saying waiting 10-15 before judging the season, it would be an interesting topic to research and discuss.

Above is a screenshot of a spreadsheet showing the last 10 seasons at different intervals (5 games, 10 games and 15 games) along with the final table after 46 games.

After 5 games, we can clearly see that is it too early to judge a season as in the last 10 seasons there are only 3 times we have finished within 2 league places of where we were after 5 games. With our worst tally, 2 points in 2004-05 ending in promotion and our best tallies, 9 points in 2011-12 & 2013-14, ending in play-off defeat does back that point up. In the 2008-09 & 2009-10 season, we gained 4 points although it was a very different story at the end of the season with one ending in 71 points and missing out on play-offs and the other in 43 points ending in relegation.

After 10 games and 15 games, there is more of an idea with 7 being within 2 league places of where we eventually finished.

Although, all it takes is a good run and things will look very different.

For example, look at the 2005-06 season and after 5 games we have accumulated 5 points sitting in 16th place. After 10 games and an extra 15 points, we had rocketed up to 2nd. In the next 5 games, 5 points were added and we were top of the tree.

8 times out of the last 10 seasons we have improved our position or stayed in the same position between the 5th game and the 10th game. 7 times out of the last 10 seasons we have improved our position or stayed in the same position between the 5th game and the 15th game.

 

[Blue_Wes]

I never really worry about the season until about eight games in. Obviously, if we're losing every game it's different; but if the team is picking up points, then I don't really become too concerned until the side is competitively settled, and for me that about eight games onwards. The fact that the transfer window doesn't close until five games in, meaning squads are still being finalised would probably support that view too.

Lets not forget, before the digital word, league tables weren't even printed until 5/6 games in.

we've also played more away games than home, and they're the longest journeys we'll have, which bar the form teams, are the most difficult games to prepare for. Yes, there are some aspects/players I'd like to see improvement to/from, but I'm not unduly concerned at the moment.

 

[Jam_Man]

Cant judge anything yet and Saturday skewed anything because we played with 10 men. Even then we were the better side in the first half.

10 games or so and you have a decent idea of how the season will pan out, but we know just how much form can swing. Last season we went from bottom of the form table to top of the form table in 6 games in the later part of the season.

 

[MK Shrimper]

When it's over.

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Cant judge anything yet and Saturday skewed anything because we played with 10 men. Even then we were the better side in the first half.10 games or so and you have a decent idea of how the season will pan out, but we know just how much form can swing. Last season we went from bottom of the form table to top of the form table in 6 games in the later part of the season.

We can be the better team in every game of the season. If we don't score more goals than our opposition, being the better team means nothing. We aren't too defensive, we have a lot of chances, it's just we are terrible in front of goal. Let's hope we can change that trend and put away our chances. To do this, we need a striker of some quality, one I don't think we will get.

As for judging a season, at the point we can't mathematically gain promotion is the point our season should be judged. However, if the trend of not scoring from a hatful of chances continues, game after game, our season will be judged a lot quicker than it should

 

[Uncle Leo]

Ten feels about right, at least to get a good indication of how things are going.

Nice bit of research there by the way. Apart from the bit that reminded me we conceded 80 goals in one season in the Championship :'(

 

[mrsblue]

We can be the better team in every game of the season. If we don't score more goals than our opposition, being the better team means nothing. We aren't too defensive, we have a lot of chances, it's just we are terrible in front of goal. Let's hope we can change that trend and put away our chances. To do this, we need a striker of some quality, one I don't think we will get.

As for judging a season, at the point we can't mathematically gain promotion is the point our season should be judged. However, if the trend of not scoring from a hatful of chances continues, game after game, our season will be judged a lot quicker than it should

Few seasons ago I was playing in a team team whose forwards simply had chance after chance and could not convert,The manager knew he had only a squad of 16 but he also knew he had to change it or relegation was a certainty so he moved the centre back who had exceptional pace up front where she duly scored 16 and we surged up the table to finish far higher than anyone expected.

Goals win games.

 

[londonblue]

I would say after 1/4 of the season. By then you will have played half the teams once, which should give you a fair idea of where you stand. However, that doesn't take peaks and troughs in form into account, so the only real way to judge is at the end of the season.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

You can't tell until you've seen the team in the cold on heavy pitches.

 

[Angell Delight]

IMHO 10 games is enough to be a good indicator, although it's not a disaster if you're not where you want to be at that stage.

 

[Jam_Man]

We can be the better team in every game of the season. If we don't score more goals than our opposition, being the better team means nothing. We aren't too defensive, we have a lot of chances, it's just we are terrible in front of goal. Let's hope we can change that trend and put away our chances. To do this, we need a striker of some quality, one I don't think we will get.

As for judging a season, at the point we can't mathematically gain promotion is the point our season should be judged. However, if the trend of not scoring from a hatful of chances continues, game after game, our season will be judged a lot quicker than it should

Very true, but performance is also a good indicator of how we are doing even with results.

Id rather have had 3 bad results and good performances than 3 bad results and bad performances. The latter is a lot harder to turn around.

 

[IronMike]

Interesting statistics, nice work.
I'd say over a 46 game season, that 15 matches played should give a realistic indication of where you will likely finish.

 

[flapjack]

Very true, but performance is also a good indicator of how we are doing even with results.

Id rather have had 3 bad results and good performances than 3 bad results and bad performances. The latter is a lot harder to turn around.

I would be quite happy to take a poor performance and gain 3 points with a couple of goals, its just so frustrating that we have great build up work and nothing happens in the last 3rd of the pitch,I'm sure as the song is sung.....once we one we will get more, but its just finding the right combination and maybe just being a little brave with the younger players,its still early in the season and yes we can take a few chances with them, after all they are supposed to be the future for the club

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

I think we'll be able to judge this season pretty shortly, if we don't get a goalscoring forward in by tonight, or pretty sharpish on loan when that particular window opens.

 

[WESTY_SUFC]

Few seasons ago I was playing in a team team whose forwards simply had chance after chance and could not convert,The manager knew he had only a squad of 16 but he also knew he had to change it or relegation was a certainty so he moved the centre back who had exceptional pace up front where she duly scored 16 and we surged up the table to finish far higher than anyone expected.

Goals win games.

FFS this is embarrassing now. I don't think you grasp the level professionals play at. At a half decent amateur level what you suggest would be unlikely to work so that says everything about the level you play at.

 

[davewebbsbrain]

FFS this is embarrassing now. I don't think you grasp the level professionals play at. At a half decent amateur level what you suggest would be unlikely to work so that says everything about the level you play at.

There have been a fair few pro players that have been pushed from defence up front and been successful, Paul Warhust being one of them along with Ian Marshall and Dion Dublin

 

[Jam_Man]

There have been a fair few pro players that have been pushed from defence up front and been successful, Paul Warhust being one of them along with Ian Marshall and Dion Dublin

They are pretty rare though, and none of them were pacy, more like big lumps.

(Wasnt Dion Dublin a striker changed to defender though?)

 

[davewebbsbrain]

They are pretty rare though, and none of them were pacy, more like big lumps.

(Wasnt Dion Dublin a striker changed to defender though?)

Tis true but they all scored goals. Dion Dublin started life a defender at Cambridge but was pushed up front

 

[Jam_Man]

Tis true but they all scored goals. Dion Dublin started life a defender at Cambridge but was pushed up front

Even so its a rare occassion hence their names jump out.

Why on earth are we even talking about this, are we going to play one of our defenders up front :smile:

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Even so its a rare occassion hence their names jump out.

Why on earth are we even talking about this, are we going to play one of our defenders up front :smile:

I forgot Keith Dublin :smile:

Do we have any CB's that can play up front?