Where will the competition come from?

[fbm]

Six games to go and it's pretty tense.

We're in an excellent position, 6 points clear and with 4 of our 6 remaining games at home.  Some bookies have stopped taking bets on us and the rest of the division has conceded that we're up.

In fact, the only people who don't seem to think we're up is us!

Now that's because we don't want to tempt fate or get too confident as it is still very much ours to throw away.  Football is a strange game at times and there is plenty of scope for upset left in this season.

So, of the chasing pack, who is most likely to catch us?

Brentford - On paper they have the easiest run in.  At home to Blackpool, Bradford and Hartlepool you can't really see them slipping up (although Bradford are capable of getting something) and away they are the only side to have lost less away games than us.  However, they have 3 sides fighting for their lives as well... Rotherham, Swindon and Bournemouth.  When it comes to the last knockings, the survival instinct is greater than the desire to go up, and there are frequent upsets at this stage of the season.  I don't think Brentford will lose a game, but I don't think they'll win many either.  Draws against Bradford at Griffin Park and all 3 away games will be the haul.  The fbm prediction - 78 points.

Huddersfield - Great home form but on the road they struggle.  That's why I'm pleased to see they only have 2 home games left - Chesterfield and Yeovil - with the remaining 4 matches seeing them travel to Walsall, Swindon, Gillingham and Bournemouth.  Four more teams fighting for their lives and again I can't see Huddersfield winning at any of those places.  Draws at Walsall and Swindon with defeats at the other 2 places.  The fbm prediction - 76 points.

Col******r - They had a phenomenal run earlier in the season which now seems to have been countered by one that is nothing short of woeful, with only 1 goal scored from open play in something like 9 games.  They have home games against Hartlepool, Tranmere and Rotherham, with visits to Yeovil, Forest, Chesterfield and Bournemouth.  However, I think that they may now get back on track.  If you look at the sides below us, you can't see many going on a winning run, except perhaps Col******r, simply because they've done it before.  They'll win their home games and get maximum points from the trips to Chesterfield and Yeovil, with Bournemouth holding them to a draw.  Forest will be too strong for them.  The fbm prediction - 81 points.

Swansea - Just how much has the LDV taken out of them?  Will the fallout from the Trundle/Flag incident affect them?  They have 4 away and 3 at home, with Oldham,  Chesterfield, Port Vale and Blackpool hosting the welshmen and Rotherham, Swindon and ourselves visiting their new stadium.  Now if Trundle doesn't get banned or injured, you can't see them slipping up in many of those games.  Sadly, i think they'll have too much for us.  Oldham should hold them to a draw, with Port Vale being tricky and doing likewise even though they have nothing to play for.  I can't see Swansea faltering.  The fbm prediction - 80 points.

Oldham - They have really had a good run of late but I think they went too early.  Barnsley, Swansea and Scunthorpe have to visit Boundary Park and I think all 3 will be draws.  On their travels they have Rotherham, Doncaster and Bristol City - 3 more tough games.  City will turn them over whilst the other 2 matches will also end all square.  The fbm prediction - 68 points.

Barnsley - Another side who had a great run but who are now falling away.  Their home games see Bradford (draw), Chesterfield (win) and us (draw) visit Oakwell.  Away from home they are not all that great and have to go to Oldham, Blackpool and Walsall, with another 3 draws I reckon.  They peaked much too early.  The fbm prediction - 70 points.

Notts Forest - Coming up hard on the rails since Megson went, they are now becoming the side that everyone thought they would be.  They host Bournemouth, Col******r and Yeovil, and have to travel to Bradford, Hartlepool and Tranmere.  I can't see any side beating them with maybe only Bradford nicking a point.  The fbm prediction - 74 points.

So, what about us?

We SHOULD win our next 2 home games.  A draw at Oakwell will be the likely outcome and I think Donny will hold us at the Hall.  Sadly I can't see us getting anything from the Swansea match and we always lose the last home game.  The fbm prediction - 82 points.


So, that leaves us with the following;

Southend - 82
Col******r - 81
Swansea - 80
Brentford - 78
Huddersfield - 76
Forest - 74
Barnsley - 70
Oldham - 68


Lets hope we don't slip up.  Oh, and cheer Bournemouth on as they have the most vital part to play, with home matches against Brentford, Col******r and Huddersfield.  Come on you Cherries!

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

If Forest do manage to gatecrash the playoffs, I expect them to get promoted.

Would be great if we could go up automatically with the Ewes and have Essex derbies in the Championship!

 

[number11]

That's a good read and fairly re-assuring.....

i can't see Col u getting much from away visits to Chesterfield, Bournemouth or Yeovil, (draws at these places are generally considered good results) and think they will definately be turned over by Forest this weekend, so that will only leave them with 3 games in which to make up ground on us.

Brentford to win at the very least two out of the three home games, possibly three...with their away games being difficult to call (by all accounts they have been awful in last 5 games but luckily picked up 4 points out of last 2 games), but I can see them picking up 12 points

Again I cant see Huddersfield picking up much from their away games against Bournemouth and Gillingham, which will leave them with 4 games to get 6 more points then what we get from 6 games..

Swansea look to have very winnable games, including I fear a defeat for us, and I can see them getting the most points from the chasing pack, perhaps 16,

The rest appear too far behind at the moment and will be concentrated on getting into the play offs rather then automatic...

So I think at this stage:

Brentford 80 points
Huddersfield 80 points
Swansea will end up with 79 points
Col******r 76 points

So two wins could be enough....oh how exciting.... shame its not like a computer management game where you can just stay up that extra hour to see how the promotion race pans out...I wanna know now whether we end up with that promotion!!

 

[Shrimpbizkit]

Think thats pretty spot on FBM with the exception of the last game. With promotion secure I think we will win, with the Goat having a fitting send off to a wonderful career.

 

[Jam_Man]

Personally think you have given too much credit to Col U. They seem to be picking up, however still only won one game in god knows how long. I cant see them finishing 2nd.

 

[RobM.]

Col U have won 1 in 12. Hardly promotion form!

 

[fbm]

Having penned the above before Swansea, Trundle and Tate were charged over the Flag incident, I now think that this sort of fallout could affect them. Trundle and Tate have been bailed until the end of April, so this will be hanging over them until then. They may yet face bans and as we know, Swansea without Trundle just aren't as good.

This sort of incident could really put the skids under their promotion push. It will make their visit to Port Vale on Saturday very interesting.

 

[Jam_Man]

Lets hope th bans (if there are any) come in for when we go there!